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Scaredgirl

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92266#msg92266
« Reply #96 on: June 15, 2010, 09:04:37 am »
Lol, I was way off. :)

Gratz.
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finkel

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92323#msg92323
« Reply #97 on: June 15, 2010, 11:13:01 am »
Congrats, Troh, WOW, Zac O.o
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JoshK

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92351#msg92351
« Reply #98 on: June 15, 2010, 12:28:49 pm »
Competition was rigged imo.
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Scaredgirl

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92353#msg92353
« Reply #99 on: June 15, 2010, 12:32:23 pm »
Quote from: JoshK on June 15, 2010, 12:28:49 pm
Competition was rigged imo.
Yeah, definitely. It was a way to big of a coincidence that only 17 minutes after zac333 posted his comment, Troh won the Nymph.

There's something fishy about this whole thing. I demand a recount.
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Offline the dictator

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92392#msg92392
« Reply #100 on: June 15, 2010, 02:11:51 pm »
Well I need another nymph too
*starts thinking about making a thread like this, it seems to work ;)*

Grats with your nymph Troh.
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icybraker

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92394#msg92394
« Reply #101 on: June 15, 2010, 02:13:45 pm »
Lol, I just saw this thread and spun a :darkness Nymph. Thanks, Troh!
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Offline Xinef

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92423#msg92423
« Reply #102 on: June 15, 2010, 03:16:31 pm »
If I'm right, from statistical point of view earlier dates had greater probability of winning the bet (because it's a probability of winning a nymph provided that he did not win it earlier).

Thus, the only logical conclusion is that:
Congratz Troh on winning a nymph! Auburn was also my first one... and I only have 2 nymphs after spinning for a few months.

Congratz zac333



Now, Troh has to play Elements till the end of his life MWAHAHAHAHA <daemonic laughter> MWAHAHAHAHA
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JoshK

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92464#msg92464
« Reply #103 on: June 15, 2010, 04:27:08 pm »
Quote from: Xinef on June 15, 2010, 03:16:31 pm
If I'm right, from statistical point of view earlier dates had greater probability of winning the bet (because it's a probability of winning a nymph provided that he did not win it earlier).

Now, Troh has to play Elements till the end of his life MWAHAHAHAHA <daemonic laughter> MWAHAHAHAHA
Yeah you know cause like if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 10x in a row the outcome is no longer 50/50.. it just has to have a higher probability to come up tails next right?

lawl gamblers fallacy.
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Offline Xinef

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92483#msg92483
« Reply #104 on: June 15, 2010, 04:47:15 pm »
Quote from: JoshK on June 15, 2010, 04:27:08 pm
Yeah you know cause like if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 10x in a row the outcome is no longer 50/50.. it just has to have a higher probability to come up tails next right?

lawl gamblers fallacy.
No, it's entirely a different thing. Let's say person A bets Troh gets a nymph on day 1, person B bets Troh gets a nymph on day 30.
For simplicity, let's assume the probability of winning a nymph from a single oracle spin is 5%.

Probability of person A winning is
0.05 = 5%
(either Troh spins it on the first day, or not).

Probability of person B winning is
0.05 * (0,95)^29 ~= 1,13 %
(That's because person B wins if and only if Troh did not win a nymph for 29 days and won it on the 30th day)

That's quite a big difference. If the question was "Will Troh win a nymph on day X" then both would have an equal chance (assuming Troh spins oracle on those days). The question is "When will he get his first nymph" though and it changes quite a lot. Let's just say the probability of Troh winning his first nymph after 1000000 spins is a bit lower then probability of Troh winning it on day 4 :P (though it's a small difference... in absolute values )
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Wisemage

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92492#msg92492
« Reply #105 on: June 15, 2010, 04:59:52 pm »
I bet he doesnt get it.

Took me 2 freaking months tog et my first nymph, and ive only gotten 2 nymphs, rolling every day, since oracle came out.
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smuglapse

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92501#msg92501
« Reply #106 on: June 15, 2010, 05:10:02 pm »
Quote from: Wisemage on June 15, 2010, 04:59:52 pm
I bet he doesnt get it.
Did you only read the title?
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Ant-n-ero

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Re: If i will not recieve a nymph in 30 days, i quit this project https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7900.msg92507#msg92507
« Reply #107 on: June 15, 2010, 05:15:51 pm »
Quote from: Wisemage on June 15, 2010, 04:59:52 pm
I bet he doesnt get it.

Took me 2 freaking months tog et my first nymph, and ive only gotten 2 nymphs, rolling every day, since oracle came out.
lol fail - he already has it n00b - read the posts not the title or you will be hated forever >_<
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