[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[gumbeh]

ei being electrum?

also, why then mark it 4 losses and not 4 skips?

The questions Jenkar answered, as well as this question, can all be answered if you read the OP here and in the Statmasta thread.

[Calindu]

http://www.mediafire.com/?3bsr3tzqf91ba3t

CCC's data, in an openoffice version.

I can't understand, i guess i just play fast. Even when i destroy the skips, i get the same time difference. Weird.

Ehem,what is CCC?

Who* CCCombobreaker.

Lol,thinking you missclicked C instead of V.

[Jangoo]

FGei(c) is the FGei i got in testing. FGei(cn) is the one i'd have had if i did every god the same number of times, with 35% chance of winnin' a card if i won.

Actually ...

FGei(e) ... is what you actually got in testing, just the way it all really happened. "e" stands for "empirical"
FGei(c) ... is what you would have if your card-spin rate was 35%. "c" stands for "cards" or "card-spin-normalized"
FGei(cn) ... is when card-spin-normalization is conjoined with an assumed equal number of games against each god. "n" stands for "normalized"

The questions Jenkar answered, as well as this question, can all be answered if you read the OP here and in the Statmasta thread.

Somebody actually read those? Yay!

[kirchj33]

deck	LS/AM (Next Level)
players	kirchj33

version	1.283		win-rate	32.69%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	33.38%
games	208		Score/h	285
win-loss-(EM)	68-140-(32)		Score/h (n)	300
time (h:m:s)	08:58:29		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3241
min/game	02:35		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3256

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
1332    209    1012    -1558    643    -21600    -1129    -660    -1244    -1309    -236    371    281    220       -561    135    -871    107    833    -198    1107    2183    1218    -1456    1398    589    -312    407    -925	7866    2748    5794    -1558    3901    -21600    -1129    -660    -1244    -1309    1361    3125    2990    3005       1127    2021    -871    1981    4514    2061    5625    10029    6300    -1456    6556    4453    1428    3215    -925	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	3    5    6        6                         1    4    2    4    1    2        2    3    1    4    9    4        3    3    2    3	1     11     1     3     7          8     3     5     6     6     6     4     8     7     5     5     4     2     4     1         1     6     1     2     10     4     5	14	1      2      1            5                                    1      2      1      1            1                  2            2      7      2            3                  1

"      
      

http://www.mediafire.com/?25o7gsupwl7enho (http://www.mediafire.com/?25o7gsupwl7enho)

[Onizuka]

And kirch puts a nail in the coffin of Liquid Antimatter

[Jenkar]

Ineresting- alot of our god win/loss stasus don't match.

[kirchj33]

Ineresting- alot of our god win/loss stasus don't match.

I just compared them side-by-side and they are very consistent within reason.  Just off the top of my head, you had better luck against Miracle, Incarnate, Morte, Serket.... I did better against DM, Octane, Rainbow.  I never once drew an early shield vs. Serket, but it was only 5 games.   This is why many games from many testers is important.

[Jenkar]

deck	Turbo-speed false god farming
players	Jenkar

version	1.285		win-rate	46,74%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	46,21%
games	261		Score/h	633
win-loss-(EM)	122-139-(30)		Score/h (n)	614
time (h:m:s)	10:41:01		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	5011
min/game	02:27		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	4920

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-1306    601    632    45    1288    1297    485    1305    -1448    810    1641    714    -1102    366       -625    1454    635    952    1288    -743    887    -101    -1572    955    1444    447    39    116    923	-1306    5148    5576    2679    6639    8233    4552    6850    -1448    7091    8336    4848    -1102    4509       1042    8473    4398    5289    7605    -743    5031    2951    -1572    5528    8153    4184    3301    3757    7107	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	6    4    3    9     6    5    6        2    8    6        4    1    8    7    6    8        3    2        6    9    4    2    3    4	9     6     5     9     1      2     7     2     5     2     2     5     8     6     7     4     7     2         3     1     6     14     4         5     5     8     4		1      1      3            1      3                  5      2                        3      2      2                  1                  3      1                  1      1

http://www.mediafire.com/?w8z765d54e8jwg4

[ooli]

I did a few  calculation about the chance to drop a card from each False God (FG).
I dont know if it as already being done, so I hope it's not a known fact

The method is:
- List all card from each FG (using the the list of card with their code (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/resources/list-of-all-cards/) and the deck of each FG (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/pve/false-gods/) from the wiki)
- I supposed a chance for a winning spin being the Number of cards owned by the FG divided by the total number of non-tower cards. (When I first played the game, FG were dropping Tower , If I remember well. It seems it's not the case anymore)
example: Divine glory as 12 "Morning Glory", a total of 72 cards with 32 towers. So the chance to drop a morning glory is 12 / (72 -32 ) = 30%
- Then I just take the average of all those individual drop rate, which give the rate of winning 1 card in 1 spin.

The result is here :

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win Rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

Those results are close to the observed 35% drop rate I read about around here.
You just  multiply those rate by 3 (for 3 spin) and the average for all FG is a 38% theoretical chance to win a card
(a bit over the observed 35%! May be because some good ranked  FG, Divine Glory or Octane, are a pain for most deck)

Those results explain why I have "plenty" of Fire Queen,  Feral Bond, Pharaoh or Morning glory to sell  and close to zero  Pest , Poison or Quicksand

As I was at it, for the sake of statistic, I just factor in the sell value of each card in those probability.
Example: a Morning Glory (again) could be sold for 1301 Electrum , with its 30% drop-rate, that's a 1 Spin Value of 1301*30%= 390 electrum

Again with an average for each card weighted by its sell value we get :

rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

1 Spin Value 306 246 199 198 195 194 194 175 167 167 166 165 148 147 146 146 133 129 117 109 106 106 100 97 97 97 84 83 69

I hope it could help you decide the FG you should skip.
example: Winning against the  first 11 FG of this list (from Divine glory to Hecate) grant you as much Card Value as winning against the 18 others. And Dream Catcher sure does not worth the work 

On a non related topic. I also listed the frequency of each card in FG deck. Some of you can use that in your deck building (long list and the never used cards are nor listed):

Card Gravity Tower Quantum Tower Water Tower Emerald Tower Aether Tower Stone Tower Burning Tower Time Tower Amethyst Tower Wind Tower Light Tower Ray of Light Obsidian Tower Explosion Bone Tower Twin Universe Supernova Feral Bond Electrum Hourglass Unstoppable Congeal Animate Weapon Fire Lance Gravity Force Improved Steal Improved Blessing Improved Miracle Eagle's Eye Deadly Poison Retrovirus Elite Graboid Massive Dragon Forest Spectre Morning Glory Rewind Abyss Crawler Fractal Elite Queen Siphon Life Rage Elixir Elite Deja Vu Pufferfish Shockwave Pest Graveyard Protect Artifact Chaos Power Leaf Dragon Bone Wall Quicksand Basalt Dragon Black Hole Archangel Fate Egg Pharaoh Phase Recluse Unstable Gas Voodoo Doll Cloak Vampire Elite Shrieker Micro Abomination Werewolf Fallen Druid Minor Phoenix Lava Destroyer Graviton Firemaster Elite Charger Nymph's Tears Artic Octopus Quintessence Deathstalker Arsenic Elite Otyugh Scorpion Jade Dragon Eternity Ulitharid Permafrost Shield Thunderbolt Phase Shield Elite Phase Dragon Bloodsucker Liquid Shadow Brimstone Eater Fire Storm Overdrive Elite Armagio Giant Frog Elite Cockatrice Physalia Inundation Aether Pendulum Vampire Dagger Improved Plague Flesh Recluse Condor Gnome Gemfinder Heavy Armor Diamond Shield Pulverizer Improved Mutation Butterfly Effect Maxwell's Demon Discord Ruby Dragon Farhenheit Titan Jade Shield Jade Staff Light Dragon Turtle Shield Elite Anubis Arctic Dragon Electrocutor Improved Dusk Ivory Dragon Steel Golem Dissipation Field Fire Buckler Trebuchet Chimera Gravity Nymph Improved Heal Epinephrine Life Nymph Mirror Shield Elite Pegasus Precognition Poseidon Elite Immortal Nightmare Granite Skin Elite Antlion Amethyst Dragon Purple Nymph Gravity Shield Solar Buckler Tower Shield Silurian Dragon Ice Lance Purify

FG own 110 94 94 90 80 72 68 64 58 54 54 52 50 50 44 36 34 34 34 32 28 26 26 26 24 24 24 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

What strike me is that "Purify" is never used. We have room for poison-based deck here.
 And the enormous number of "Explosion" (or "Steal") explain why I'm always a "Protected Artifact" too far from victory 

(sorry for my engrish, it's pretty late here)

[Jenkar]

You might be interested by this : http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,20376.msg300757.html#msg300757

[gumbeh]

I did a few  calculation about the chance to drop a card from each False God (FG).
I dont know if it as already being done, so I hope it's not a known fact

(sorry for my engrish, it's pretty late here)

That... is pretty freaking incredible for a first post. Understandable enough English. An attempt at interesting data. You'll fit in here.

Sent you a private message to avoid derailing the topic. But I had to applaud a little bit in public view.

[10 men]

- I supposed a chance for a winning spin being the Number of cards owned by the FG divided by the total number of non-tower cards. (When I first played the game, FG were dropping Tower , If I remember well. It seems it's not the case anymore)

That's not true unfortunately - first of all it is not impossible to win a Tower, just very unlikely, and aside of that the spinning mechanism is much more complicated. It's something more similar to what's in this post (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,20376.msg300757.html#msg300757) though that is wrong too.