Guest posts by ooli

1

Farming Studies and Statistics / theoretical individual FG card winning rate

« on: August 18, 2011, 03:08:28 am »

I did a few  calculation about the chance to drop a card from each False God (FG).
I dont know if it as already being done, so I hope it's not a known fact

The method is:
- List all card from each FG (using the the list of card with their code (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/resources/list-of-all-cards/) and the deck of each FG (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/pve/false-gods/) from the wiki)
- I supposed a chance for a winning spin being the Number of cards owned by the FG divided by the total number of non-tower cards. (When I first played the game, FG were dropping Tower , If I remember well. It seems it's not the case anymore)
example: Divine glory as 12 "Morning Glory", a total of 72 cards with 32 towers. So the chance to drop a morning glory is 12 / (72 -32 ) = 30%
- Then I just take the average of all those individual drop rate, which give the rate of winning 1 card in 1 spin.

The result is here :

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win Rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

Those results are close to the observed 35% drop rate I read about around here.
You just  multiply those rate by 3 (for 3 spin) and the average for all FG is a 38% theoretical chance to win a card
(a bit over the observed 35%! May be because some good ranked  FG, Divine Glory or Octane, are a pain for most deck)

Those results explain why I have "plenty" of Fire Queen,  Feral Bond, Pharaoh or Morning glory to sell  and close to zero  Pest , Poison or Quicksand

As I was at it, for the sake of statistic, I just factor in the sell value of each card in those probability.
Example: a Morning Glory (again) could be sold for 1301 Electrum , with its 30% drop-rate, that's a 1 Spin Value of 1301*30%= 390 electrum

Again with an average for each card weighted by its sell value we get :

rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

1 Spin Value 306 246 199 198 195 194 194 175 167 167 166 165 148 147 146 146 133 129 117 109 106 106 100 97 97 97 84 83 69

I hope it could help you decide the FG you should skip.
example: Winning against the  first 11 FG of this list (from Divine glory to Hecate) grant you as much Card Value as winning against the 18 others. And Dream Catcher sure does not worth the work 

On a non related topic. I also listed the frequency of each card in FG deck. Some of you can use that in your deck building (long list and the never used cards are nor listed):

Card Gravity Tower Quantum Tower Water Tower Emerald Tower Aether Tower Stone Tower Burning Tower Time Tower Amethyst Tower Wind Tower Light Tower Ray of Light Obsidian Tower Explosion Bone Tower Twin Universe Supernova Feral Bond Electrum Hourglass Unstoppable Congeal Animate Weapon Fire Lance Gravity Force Improved Steal Improved Blessing Improved Miracle Eagle's Eye Deadly Poison Retrovirus Elite Graboid Massive Dragon Forest Spectre Morning Glory Rewind Abyss Crawler Fractal Elite Queen Siphon Life Rage Elixir Elite Deja Vu Pufferfish Shockwave Pest Graveyard Protect Artifact Chaos Power Leaf Dragon Bone Wall Quicksand Basalt Dragon Black Hole Archangel Fate Egg Pharaoh Phase Recluse Unstable Gas Voodoo Doll Cloak Vampire Elite Shrieker Micro Abomination Werewolf Fallen Druid Minor Phoenix Lava Destroyer Graviton Firemaster Elite Charger Nymph's Tears Artic Octopus Quintessence Deathstalker Arsenic Elite Otyugh Scorpion Jade Dragon Eternity Ulitharid Permafrost Shield Thunderbolt Phase Shield Elite Phase Dragon Bloodsucker Liquid Shadow Brimstone Eater Fire Storm Overdrive Elite Armagio Giant Frog Elite Cockatrice Physalia Inundation Aether Pendulum Vampire Dagger Improved Plague Flesh Recluse Condor Gnome Gemfinder Heavy Armor Diamond Shield Pulverizer Improved Mutation Butterfly Effect Maxwell's Demon Discord Ruby Dragon Farhenheit Titan Jade Shield Jade Staff Light Dragon Turtle Shield Elite Anubis Arctic Dragon Electrocutor Improved Dusk Ivory Dragon Steel Golem Dissipation Field Fire Buckler Trebuchet Chimera Gravity Nymph Improved Heal Epinephrine Life Nymph Mirror Shield Elite Pegasus Precognition Poseidon Elite Immortal Nightmare Granite Skin Elite Antlion Amethyst Dragon Purple Nymph Gravity Shield Solar Buckler Tower Shield Silurian Dragon Ice Lance Purify

FG own 110 94 94 90 80 72 68 64 58 54 54 52 50 50 44 36 34 34 34 32 28 26 26 26 24 24 24 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

What strike me is that "Purify" is never used. We have room for poison-based deck here.
 And the enormous number of "Explosion" (or "Steal") explain why I'm always a "Protected Artifact" too far from victory 

(sorry for my engrish, it's pretty late here)

2

General Discussion / theoretical individual FG card winning rate

« on: August 18, 2011, 03:08:28 am »

I did a few  calculation about the chance to drop a card from each False God (FG).
I dont know if it as already being done, so I hope it's not a known fact

The method is:
- List all card from each FG (using the the list of card with their code (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/resources/list-of-all-cards/) and the deck of each FG (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/pve/false-gods/) from the wiki)
- I supposed a chance for a winning spin being the Number of cards owned by the FG divided by the total number of non-tower cards. (When I first played the game, FG were dropping Tower , If I remember well. It seems it's not the case anymore)
example: Divine glory as 12 "Morning Glory", a total of 72 cards with 32 towers. So the chance to drop a morning glory is 12 / (72 -32 ) = 30%
- Then I just take the average of all those individual drop rate, which give the rate of winning 1 card in 1 spin.

The result is here :

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win Rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

Those results are close to the observed 35% drop rate I read about around here.
You just  multiply those rate by 3 (for 3 spin) and the average for all FG is a 38% theoretical chance to win a card
(a bit over the observed 35%! May be because some good ranked  FG, Divine Glory or Octane, are a pain for most deck)

Those results explain why I have "plenty" of Fire Queen,  Feral Bond, Pharaoh or Morning glory to sell  and close to zero  Pest , Poison or Quicksand

As I was at it, for the sake of statistic, I just factor in the sell value of each card in those probability.
Example: a Morning Glory (again) could be sold for 1301 Electrum , with its 30% drop-rate, that's a 1 Spin Value of 1301*30%= 390 electrum

Again with an average for each card weighted by its sell value we get :

rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FG Divine Glory Serket Octane Fire Queen Jezebel Decay Incarnate Osiris Obliterator Akebono Hecate Eternal Phoenix Lionheart Paradox Destiny Gemini Neptune Ferox Graviton Miracle Rainbow Hermes Dark Matter Morte Elidnis Seism Scorpio Chaos Lord Dream Catcher

1 Spin Win rate 25% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

1 Spin Value 306 246 199 198 195 194 194 175 167 167 166 165 148 147 146 146 133 129 117 109 106 106 100 97 97 97 84 83 69

I hope it could help you decide the FG you should skip.
example: Winning against the  first 11 FG of this list (from Divine glory to Hecate) grant you as much Card Value as winning against the 18 others. And Dream Catcher sure does not worth the work 

On a non related topic. I also listed the frequency of each card in FG deck. Some of you can use that in your deck building (long list and the never used cards are nor listed):

Card Gravity Tower Quantum Tower Water Tower Emerald Tower Aether Tower Stone Tower Burning Tower Time Tower Amethyst Tower Wind Tower Light Tower Ray of Light Obsidian Tower Explosion Bone Tower Twin Universe Supernova Feral Bond Electrum Hourglass Unstoppable Congeal Animate Weapon Fire Lance Gravity Force Improved Steal Improved Blessing Improved Miracle Eagle's Eye Deadly Poison Retrovirus Elite Graboid Massive Dragon Forest Spectre Morning Glory Rewind Abyss Crawler Fractal Elite Queen Siphon Life Rage Elixir Elite Deja Vu Pufferfish Shockwave Pest Graveyard Protect Artifact Chaos Power Leaf Dragon Bone Wall Quicksand Basalt Dragon Black Hole Archangel Fate Egg Pharaoh Phase Recluse Unstable Gas Voodoo Doll Cloak Vampire Elite Shrieker Micro Abomination Werewolf Fallen Druid Minor Phoenix Lava Destroyer Graviton Firemaster Elite Charger Nymph's Tears Artic Octopus Quintessence Deathstalker Arsenic Elite Otyugh Scorpion Jade Dragon Eternity Ulitharid Permafrost Shield Thunderbolt Phase Shield Elite Phase Dragon Bloodsucker Liquid Shadow Brimstone Eater Fire Storm Overdrive Elite Armagio Giant Frog Elite Cockatrice Physalia Inundation Aether Pendulum Vampire Dagger Improved Plague Flesh Recluse Condor Gnome Gemfinder Heavy Armor Diamond Shield Pulverizer Improved Mutation Butterfly Effect Maxwell's Demon Discord Ruby Dragon Farhenheit Titan Jade Shield Jade Staff Light Dragon Turtle Shield Elite Anubis Arctic Dragon Electrocutor Improved Dusk Ivory Dragon Steel Golem Dissipation Field Fire Buckler Trebuchet Chimera Gravity Nymph Improved Heal Epinephrine Life Nymph Mirror Shield Elite Pegasus Precognition Poseidon Elite Immortal Nightmare Granite Skin Elite Antlion Amethyst Dragon Purple Nymph Gravity Shield Solar Buckler Tower Shield Silurian Dragon Ice Lance Purify

FG own 110 94 94 90 80 72 68 64 58 54 54 52 50 50 44 36 34 34 34 32 28 26 26 26 24 24 24 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

What strike me is that "Purify" is never used. We have room for poison-based deck here.
 And the enormous number of "Explosion" (or "Steal") explain why I'm always a "Protected Artifact" too far from victory 

(sorry for my engrish, it's pretty late here)

3

Forum Archive / A completely different god deck!!

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:12 pm »

I just went through my 1 hour usual test against false god. It was WITHOUT any upgraded card, so I had to swith to Time mark, and put 2 Light pillar.
In 1 hour I had 4 win and 14 loss. Those 20% sucess could dramaticaly increase just with some pillar upgrade, cause I lost lot of fight from lack of a very few quantum, putting Hermes to 3 HP before dying is frustrating. So I think I will upgrade the Fire  pillar even before the sundial.

How important are those Fahrenheits? Could you have only one Fahrenheit and play it just before you play those 6 x Bolts? You know.. one big blow. I'm asking because I assume they get stolen/destroyed a lot if you play them early.

You're right , you depend a lot on Fahrenheit , and a stolen/destroyed weapon harm you like hell. Usualy Fahrenheit allow to put those god to 100-140 HP before the final Fire bolt blow. When it's early destroyed or  always blocked, like by the Incarnate Bone Wall, you're pretty sure to loose in the end.

I'm still pretty sure having 4-6 upgraded photon +  3-4 normal immolation could let you keep either fire mark (or time mark with non upgraded sundial), plus allowing the use of an usefull enchant artifact on Fahrenheit. But I 'm far from being able too afford those.

4

Card Ideas and Art / Change Holy Light

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:09 pm »

There are plenty of creatures above 4 HP.

In fact the bump from 3 HP to 4 is probably the most important one in the game!

Pretty right, but not exactly. If you take the flying weapon into account, and count upgraded version as differents mobs, here are the number of creature for each HP:

0 HP 2 creatures
1 HP 25 creatures
2 HP 24 creatures
3 HP 21 creatures
4 HP 14 creatures
5 HP 17 creatures
6 HP 13 creatures
7 HP 10 creatures
8 HP 5 creatures
9 HP 4 creatures
10 HP 1 creatures
11 HP 1 creatures
12 HP 4 creatures
25 HP 1 creatures
30 HP 2 creatures
70 HP 2 creatures

So right 50% of all creature are under 3 HP. But above it is a pretty consistant 10% for 4Hp, 5HP, 6 Hp, and above 6HP.

Anyway the more I play the game, the more I feel that "Rain of Fire" is the ONLY way to mass creature control. And compares to that we have "Boneyard" wich can spam creature pretty easely.
So basically this "Mass holy light" should be an counter to boneyard deck. Unfortunatly the way the system actualy work (killing creature in order, and generating them right after with boneyard)  turn a "mass holy light" in something that miss its purpose,  in term of Roleplay (still skeletons walking after the Mighty Holy Ligh), and in term of gameplay (decreasing usefulness against death element).
And having the card destroying the Boneyard in the process to ensure no regeneration of skeletons, would be far too much.

5

False Gods / Campaign against the gods: A false god strategy guide

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:09 pm »

Then you don't know how it should be used.

That's not an argument, that is a simple presumption of my bad game performance
If I tell you to put an Holy light in your deck, and telling you "you dont know how to play it" when you complain about it's usefullness... I didnt prove whether Holy light is good or s***y.

Anyway either TU is useless, or I play it like a monkey, in any case, no use for it in my deck (cut off of the one in first post).
Just played 1 hour straight against false god for 8 win, 5 loss and 1 stupid unchecked decking out . May be I was just unlucky, but it still take far too much time. Gonna try some God selection deck with fast win against half of them (if possible) and systematic abandon otherwise.

6

False Gods / Campaign against the gods: A false god strategy guide

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:09 pm »

Ok, I tried the Twin Universe, and it's kinda useless. The best use was to twin a huge creature as lure for the damage/gravity/rewind of the AI, and in fact FFq does a better job and last longer with it's firefly.

The best luring AI card should be an Archangel: 7 as Attack score and healing any Firelance/EagleEyes coming on, plus healing of Othuy in case of unexpected plague. Too bad the sundial already put an heavy toll on light quantum.

Anyway my bad luck of Eternity as Last card is gone And the farming goes pretty well and pretty fast with 30 card, as you have all cards played early on (thanks to the sundial), and finish just on regular routine of rewinding this lone skeleton. Still very hard against Rainbow if you didnt get the Pulverizer before its hourglass, and hard agaisnt Seism and Hermes sometimes.

7

Forum Archive / A completely different god deck!!

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:09 pm »

On an unrelated note, why do you use multiple accounts? :S.

Cause I didnt have ton of electrum to spend on fire cards and upgraded sundial on my regular account without testing the usefullness of the deck before hand
And the sundial being correctly nerfed in the trainer, I can't test the deck :s

Anyway I like the idea that no shield at all can protect your opponent from oblivion, and it should be kind of straightforward to play.

8

Deck Help / interesting rainbow deck ideas...

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:09 pm »

Was just thinking of a way to use the dissipation shield.
But in my opinion, the best quanta source are the "supernova" and the "rustlers".
So I would have put 6 supernova and a few rustler and tried to deck out the false god
It's a dead case anyway, you're f***ed up against poisoning, and I kinda doubt you can generate enouth quantum to hold some serious creatures spamming opponent.

9

Card Ideas and Art / Balance

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:08 pm »

As stated you are still thinking in M:tG gameplay : here you dont need to pass the creatures to reach the opponent. So immortal creatures are not a big deal.

And top of that those creatures are "un-targetable" and that's is a cool trick , cause you cannot boost them , or intereact with them in any way. So in fact un-targetable creature balance themself out pretty well (as long they didnt have incredible attack to start with)

10

Card Ideas and Art / Change Holy Light

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:08 pm »

You are right I didnt think of it this way.
But let's face it, there is not much creatures with above 3HP all around, and "rain of fire" is not OP.
The cost of the boosted Holy light should be around the same : 7 quantum. It does more damage but to only 2/12 of the availlables creatures.

What strike me most, is some problem with the order of killing: mass holy lighting a field with some Vampire and a boneyard would be pretty uncontrolable (and without logic) if it spam skeletons without killing them.

11

Card Ideas and Art / Change Holy Light

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:08 pm »

This card is useless. Even the upgraded version for zero quanta is un-playable .

A small change can make this card more fun/usefull :

Affect ALL creatures +player,  in you side :healing for 5HP the non-death/darkness and You (if your mark is not death/darkness.. hurting the other element)
AND in opponent side: 5 damage for ALL death and darkness creatures and healing of 5 for the other.. Heal or damage to opponent will depend of its mark.

A decent rise in quanta for the card may be necessary for balance. But even like this I wont put any even for 1 quanta : It would be an awsome card if you're opponent is mono death or darkness.. but next to useless otherwise.

12

False Gods / Campaign against the gods: A false god strategy guide

« on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:08 pm »

I'm trying this deck right now. Cutting it to 30 cards: putting out all the double card (boneyard, FFq, etc) , except for Otyuh and bonewall as they're too valuable to not be guaranted in the deck.

Actually I'm loosing far too much of decking out, either cause I forgot about that, but even more cause Eternity was my last card (when you're about to win and you pick a sundial as you for last card instead of the expected Eternity, you usually end up  whining ).
Let's say I was just unlucky, cause it should occurs only 1 out of 30 times.

The Twin universe may be a good idea in this 30 cards deck to compensate for the cutting out of creatures... Too bad we cannot Twin the Bond and the boneyard.