Year of the Oracle

[Boingo]

Think you're having a bad streak with the Oracle lately?
Did you just spin 2 nymphs in a row?
How likely is that anyway?

In case you ever wondered....here's what a year's worth of spins (365 spins) would have yielded the typical player.

Total spins	365
Winning spins	52 (14.25%)
Rare spins	34 (9.32%)
Rare wins (includes nymphs)	13 (3.56%)
Nymph wins	9 (2.46%)
AVerage electrum/spin	50.41
Most frequent electrum amount awarded	30
Chance that a False God is named	59.5%

  Distribution of Electrum awarded





  Distribution of Cards Spun by Element
blue bars = element of card spun
red bars = number of cards in that element as of v1.27 (no mark cards or shards included)





  Cards Spun by Type





  Cards Won by Type


These stats are compiled chiefly from my own spins but with added data from the spin diaries of Selenbrant and smuglapse (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,8765.0.html).  No spin exploits were used.

[ztormtrooper]

right so i will probably win 9 nymphs this year cool, hope they're all different

[manaboy100]

Well, now Oracle gives us a FG prediction each spin, so it's not 59.5% anymore, it's 100% xD

[scauduro221095]

interesting that there are so few nymphs won a year

[killybob]

interesting that there are so few nymphs won a year

not really. they are meant to be super ultra rare cards that are alchemy on a stick. they are mainly meant as rewards for becoming champion of a tournament so it makes sense that they are very uncommon from the oracle.

[Boingo]

Well, now Oracle gives us a FG prediction each spin, so it's not 59.5% anymore, it's 100% xD

Yeah, this was meant to show data from a player's experience.   The game went through many versions during the period recorded and many new cards were added, but it would probably have been less interesting if I did a version-by-version breakdown (and I wasn't sure when new cards made it into the Oracle anyway.)  Obviously, changes to how the Oracle operates and the addition of new cards, etc may change any or all of these statistics.

One thing I thought odd was the under-representation of cards compared to others.  You were twice as likely to spin a card from than from despite there being nearly equal number of cards of both.  I don't know if this reflects something about how the Oracle operates or if it's just a statistical anomaly given the data set only includes 365 spins.

[tttt]

I was just wondering what were the odds of getting a nymph. Good work on the statistic.

[TheForbiddenOracle]

I was just wondering what were the odds of getting a nymph. Good work on the statistic.

Seems like 3.5%... in otherwords every ~28? days you get a nymph though its highly variable

[killybob]

remember we are talking about real life chances, not just calculated ones so, just like with dusk and fog shields, the chances will indeed be very invariable so there is not way that we can predict time lapses and specific dates. for instance i've gone for 4 months without a single nymph. in fact for all this time my money won has averaged only 20 and i have only won 1 card.

[TheCrazyMango]

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[TheForbiddenOracle]

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