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Offline killsdazombies

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211462#msg1211462
« Reply #180 on: October 21, 2015, 12:20:33 am »

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Offline Linkcat

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211463#msg1211463
« Reply #181 on: October 21, 2015, 12:23:57 am »
Apparently it is difficult.

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Offline Dm

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211466#msg1211466
« Reply #182 on: October 21, 2015, 12:42:08 am »
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Here, a much better fix

Offline Espithel

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211467#msg1211467
« Reply #183 on: October 21, 2015, 12:43:34 am »
Sigh.

Well, a silly guaranteed lynch is better than an unguaranteed lynch.

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Offline UTAlan

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211471#msg1211471
« Reply #184 on: October 21, 2015, 12:56:23 am »
Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
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Not sure how I feel about this, but looks like the train is leaving the station and I don't want to have to worry about getting mod-killed in a few days.

Offline flyingcat

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211472#msg1211472
« Reply #185 on: October 21, 2015, 01:14:46 am »
Sorry for the inactivity. Since Dm is as good as dead, and I don't want modkill, all aboard the kirby train.

Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
Dm (11) - skyironsword, JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp, Ginyu, MeowMeowCat, killsdazombies, kirbylover314, Linkcat, Dm, Espithel, UTAlan
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Offline Dm

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211473#msg1211473
« Reply #186 on: October 21, 2015, 01:16:45 am »
Role: Civilian

Equipments: Combat Knife (1U), Spy Drone (1U), Q.W.M.T (Quantum Wormhole Manipulation Teleporter, Top Secret Prototype)

I'll take this time to explain, shortly, what is Q.W.M.T and what it does. The reason I am doing this is because as I asked in the beginning of the game, Mafia may also have top secret prototypes, and I think it'd help the town to know more about equipment as to formulate a plan. More so because we have 5/18 mafia as opposed to the usual 4/18 by now.

The QWMT will make it so that the Nightkill OR Weapon use of the night is redirected to a new player of the owner's choosing. Practically, you target someone, and that someone will get targeted by the Nightkill OR the Mafia Weapon Use of the night. Of course, this includes mafia themselves. However, in the event that there are multiple QWMTs being activated in one night, the target that is picked the most will be targeted. Otherwise, the host will randomize one of the many different targets of QWMT. In the scenario your target is not the one picked, your use of the QWMT is instantly refunded.

Combat Knife and Spy Drone does what you all know it does. It's in the opening post, so don't mind me if I tell you to go look it up in there. If you're simply too lazy, then:

Combat Knife - The first player to target you with any Equipment this night will be killed. Refunded if no player targets you.
Spy Drone - Learn all of the target player's Equipment uses (or attempted uses) for three nights, starting this night phase.

So, for the most part, I could be a pretty good, safe townie. But alas, life did not go that way.

I believe I have already explained what is wrong within this current lynch we're doing, but in case you are not aware:

You are all lynching me based off an assumption Sky made that I am a 100% mafia. This is clearly false, as you can see out of my equipment list (which I could of course be lying, you should doubt me, but you'll figure it out at the end of the day~).

Sky has told me to be an agent and to not be an agent on two different occasions. Let's assume Sky is an agent. This means Sky targetted me and flipped Mafia. This is clearly impossible; there is zero equipments that are able to give me a different side than the one I am, unless this is one of the top secret prototypes which we all have heard of - however, how likely is this? This would be an equipment that is clearly pro-Mafia for the larger part, and all of the equipments thus far, if not agent-bound or mafia-bound, hold uses for both parties equally.

In the event Sky is an agent and did indeed target me, then the chance I flip Mafia is 5/18, while the chance of Sky being an Agent is 2/17 (I am not an agent.). The odds of that really aren't that likely. Plus - Would an agent come out like this in the blunt?

Another event in which Sky could claim, indeed, with 100% certainty I am mafia, is if Sky was a civilian, which would be a 13/18 chance; I would have to be mafia, which is 5/18, and someone else would have to be an agent (we can discard this one, since it's known that we WILL have at least one agent.) Now, the Agent would have to target me; however, why would the Agent tell Sky anything? No agent would ever tell they're agent and go "someone is 100% mafia" to someone they haven't confirmed as a civilian as that could practically be suicide. It holds a 5/17 chance that the Agent would potentially go talk with a mafioso. As such, we can realize that the agent would have to have confirmed both me and sky in the same night, and then talked with Sky to make Sky lead the lynch on me. But wait, stuff doesn't end there. Why would you just trust anyone who randomly comes up to you? Sure you can frame them later, but wouldn't it be better if you could also trust them? So either Sky somehow confirmed the Agent is also a civilian, or Sky just blindly trusted some random guy who came up and said "Dm is mafia"; which hey, I suppose isn't that bad, since it's what you guys are doing.

So in resume, lynching me out of the concreteness that there is a 100% assumption holds a much lesser probability of being true than just randomly lynching me hoping there to be a mafia, which is something that we could do to absolutely anyone else, at any time, at any point of the game; even to people who have contributed less than I have for the first and second day.

But! Let's remember a few other things that have happened previously. During Day 1, without absolutely any proof, Sky still requested UTAlan to vote on me. Now, whether UTAlan voted on me or not is irrelevant and I do not hold a grudge against him nor should I (it's a stupid move, but that's fine, man.) The issue being, someone clearly attempted to get someone to vote on me from day one, with absolutely zero leads.

Now, coincidentally, the same person comes out on Day 2 and claims to have a 100% lead that I am mafia, thus getting a large amount of people to vote on me on Day 2. Now I know that this could be a big coincidence and all, but don't you think it's a bit too much of a coincidence?

I am not a fan of holding information either, so while we're here, I'll just leave a warning for after I die:
Sky herself has said in a PM to me that she'd rather change her vote this round to someone else; Sky has also said that she was only voting for me because she wanted to keep Linkcat alive because, due to her own words, he was "important", and, apparently, the reason for this was because she was going to get item from a Supply Crate from him. Is this true? I don't know man, this is mafia. I could be lying on this whole post and be mafia myself and you wouldn't even know. But hey, bribing people to keep you alive with a Supply Crate doesn't feel very town to me. Neither does straight up threatening people to vote on someone otherwise you'd use an equipment on them and they'd die within two days; but hey, you're the ones following the lead.

But mind you, I am not requesting that you remove your vote from me. I am giving you all this info, for free, no questions asked, not even asking to the people who still have not answered me completely since page 13 (yes, that includes you, UTA), so that you all can think a bit more about what you're going to do after this day ends. I'll likely be too busy to reply to this thread so extensively again, so consider this my "last will"if you so desire. All the info I accumulated from Sky's conversation and my whole explanation as to why it is not impossible, just very hard that Sky has a 100% definite lead on me is all in this page in case you still have somehow not read it since this is the fourth time I run through it.

Now there are other leads I've mentioned (like JCJ, for example); but they are all in a much less concrete shape, way, or form than all the stuff I have presented here; so I don't think there's need to present these when I can give you all enough leads out of this one post.

Well then! Enjoy your lynch train!

Bye bye~~

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211474#msg1211474
« Reply #187 on: October 21, 2015, 01:30:47 am »
Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
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Offline kirbylover314

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211475#msg1211475
« Reply #188 on: October 21, 2015, 01:56:45 am »
Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
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Dm's convinced me through his post/discussion in chat.

Offline Linkcat

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211477#msg1211477
« Reply #189 on: October 21, 2015, 02:05:10 am »
It is completely plausible that sky is an Agent or was contacted by an Agent that read Dm as mafia, and that he is lying about his TSP or just has it as mafia. Nothing Dm has said gives a good reason to not lynch him.
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Offline KuroaitouTopic starter

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211478#msg1211478
« Reply #190 on: October 21, 2015, 02:07:01 am »
Slightly answering a few questions: the main reason why I didn't vote on Day 1 was because I was trying to do a lot of Relic Sweeper stuff (not to mention, try to manage other Forum Games that are coming up) *coughPlaneswalkerEvaRiacough* ;).

But that aside, let me just say this: I honestly believe you're innocent Dm.



Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
Dm (11) - skyironsword, JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp, Ginyu, MeowMeowCat, killsdazombies, Linkcat, Dm, Espithel, UTAlan, mathman101
kirbylover314 (2) - worldwideweb3, flyingcat
skyironsword (1) - Kuroaitou

Even though that prototype seems a bit... odd to have, I personally believe that sky's tactics so far have made highly suspicious about her, and thus not fully trustworthy. And while it's bad to bring up past history in mafia, I'm also personally reminded of how UTAlan managed to forge an easy insider-alliance with one of the most trusted civilian sources back in Cartel, so this whole situation is just beyond crazy.

The situation with Linkcat I feel like I can't comment on because there's a difference in being FGO and just a normal player in those situations, so I can't provide an objective perspective in regards to whether or not it was 'scummy'. More importantly, the events that unraveled during Day 1 BEFORE the timer-cutoff incident are far more pressing to me, which is why I'm voting the way I am now.

Offline UTAlan

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Re: Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=59916.msg1211481#msg1211481
« Reply #191 on: October 21, 2015, 03:27:19 am »
Linkcat (2) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk
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I don't know whether to believe Dm, but sky has been acting...not on the up and up. BCCing multiple people on Day 1, trying to direct votes (forgive me for stupidly doing it). Then trying to direct votes Day 2 without giving a full explanation for why. Dm could very well be mafia, but he hasn't acted that way. Sky is clearly not acting like a civvy.

 

anything
blarg: