Like I said in chat, the numbers people have been posting here are wrong and not all variables have been considered. We'll take another look into starting Vault size, but I can say with 100% certainty that the "UW auto-win" is very far from the truth.
I can only assume this means the 48-48-42 games played you mentioned in rounds 1-3. In order to give more clear numbers I will run a detailed simulation using the new rules for war 4, but using battle results from war 3. I will also ignore any vault penalties since these will assumed to be ironed out with the new system, but penalties for activity will be included. I will also include any event modifiers in this simulation. Also, I will have to assume an average starting vault of 375 for simulation purposes.
After Round 1:
| Element | Total in vault | Duels (48) | | W | L | M |
 | 362 | 8 | | 6 | 2 | -1 |
 | 350 | 8 | | 6 | 2 | -13 |
 | 331 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | -2 |
 | 324 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | -9 |
 | 0 | 0 | | | | |
 | 316 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | -17 |
 | 295 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | -8 |
 | 273 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | |
 | 291 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | -12 |
 | 273 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | |
 | 266 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | -7 |
 | 260 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | -13 |
 | 202 | 8 | | 1 | 7 | -11 |
So light is now down to 7 battles and gravity is down to 6. I will obviously have to fudge the results a bit starting in round 2.
As a result, I removed a battle of
vs.
, which
won. I also removed a hypothetical match which didn't occur between
and
.
After Round 2:
| Element | Total in vault | Duels (48) | | W | L | M |
| 356 | 8 | | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 260 | 7 | | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 288 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 255 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 0 | 0 | | | | |
| 213 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 207 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 259 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | |
| 220 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | -3 |
| 248 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | |
| 152 | 7 | | 2 | 5 | |
| 208 | 8 | | 3 | 5 | -6 |
| 82 | 6 | | 1 | 5 | -6 |
PENALTIES
Replacement Player -6
|
As you can see using War 3 results probably won't be that useful at this point so I will have to pretty much entirely make up a hypothetical round 3. I will still use the penalties from Round 3 of War 3. A lot of these matches were imaginary results, but it still helps give a realistic idea of how vaults will look at the beginning of vault 4 when UW would enter the competition.
After Round 3:
| Element | Total in vault | Duels (48) | | W | L | M |
| 272 | 0 | | | | |
| 261 | 7 | | 6 | 1 | -6 |
| 195 | 6 | | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 215 | 7 | | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 214 | 7 | | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 314 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | |
| 246 | 8 | | 5 | 3 | |
| 122 | 4 | | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 142 | 6 | | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 143 | 7 | | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 121 | 6 | | 2 | 4 | -3 |
| 31 | 2 | | 0 | 2 | -3 |
| 78 | 6 | | 1 | 5 | -15 |
PENALTIES
Replacement Player -6
Inactivity Penalty -12
Replacement Player -6
|
# of Matches for Round 4:
- 8
- 8
- 8
- 7
- 6
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 4
- 3
- 3
- 2
- 1
Only 2 other teams would hypothetically qualify for 8 matches besides UW in round 4. If this is how the rules were intended to play out, then so be it. I just wanted to put the information out there since there was some question as to whether or not realistic numbers were being simulated. This should give a good idea of how war vaults will be manipulated. Again, if there is additional unreleased information that intends to address vault sizes and matchups differently, then so be it. This is the rules sections and many of us are assuming this is how the rules will play out, just as explained.
