War #4 - Round 3

[RavingRabbid]

2 generals and a lieu. YAY!

[Jaymanfu]

Also, I thought Underworld was playing in this round.  I take it that they aren't joining us until round 4, then?

Yes I thought the same thing. Apparently though them joining in round 3 is them doing there vault building and they will be doing battles in round 4.... Which should put them in about 4th place most likely with showing no decks and seeing most peoples entire vaults.... Should be interesting....

[Onizuka]

Team UW came into War 3 ranked 8th in round 5.
This team UW is currently ranked 8th in Round 3.

This is all ranked above each team by 1 card.

Light loses 26 cards this round (Going worse than 6-2 with no substitutions), UW moves into 7th.
Death loses 30 cards this round (Going worse than 6-2 with no substitutions), UW moves into 6th.
Aether loses 36 cards this round (Going worse than 6-2 with no substitutions), UW moves into 5th.
Air loses 58 cards this round (Going worse than 5-3 with no substitutions), UW moves into 4th.

Assuming each of these things happen, UW moves into 4th. Each singular one happening should mean that UW bumps up another rank.

(Not factoring the event card)

Factoring the event card:
Light can go 5-3 with all Stall qualifying wins and be above UW by 4 cards.
Death can go 5-3 with all stall qualifying wins and be under UW by 1 card.
Aether can go 5-3 with all stall qualifying wins and be under UW by 6 cards. (Or 3 stall 2 rush and be under by 1 card.)
Air can go 4-4 with all stall qualifying wins and be above UW by  10 cards. (Or 1 stall 3 rush and be tied)

I think the 2nd half is right, but its 6am and I'm tired

[suxerz]

2 generals and a lieu. YAY!

3 generals and 2 lieutenants. Yeay! 

[Zeru]

About UW. The most "fair" entrance to the war is exactly at the point of a perfectly average team. 50% winrate, no penalties, slight event card bonuses. Since UW is positioned higher than that, it gets a free advantage. Event card from round 1 helped at lot, but it was not enough.

Like I said in chat, the numbers people have been posting here are wrong and not all variables have been considered. We'll take another look into starting Vault size, but I can say with 100% certainty that the "UW auto-win" is very far from the truth.

Don't be surprised that people were worried. They did not know about the round 1 event card, and even now UW gets a high position for absolutely no achievement.

[Jenkar]

About UW. The most "fair" entrance to the war is exactly at the point of a perfectly average team. 50% winrate, no penalties, slight event card bonuses. Since UW is positioned higher than that, it gets a free advantage. Event card from round 1 helped at lot, but it was not enough.

Like I said in chat, the numbers people have been posting here are wrong and not all variables have been considered. We'll take another look into starting Vault size, but I can say with 100% certainty that the "UW auto-win" is very far from the truth.

Don't be surprised that people were worried. They did not know about the round 1 event card, and even now UW gets a high position for absolutely no achievement.

That.

[Zeru]

To make my model more precise, by "slight event cards bonuses" I mean 25%. An average team will averagely adapt to the event card (50%) and half of it will lose anyway (50%).

0,5*0,5=0,25

If anybody asks.


So for this round, an average team will bring 4 rushes or 2 deckouters and win with half of them giving a bonus of 6 cards.

[Acsabi44]

I foresee great 'stall' vs. 'stall' 1 hour long deckouter battles 

[PlayerOa]

I foresee great 'stall' vs. 'stall' 1 hour long deckouter battles 

It would be so funny if 60 pillars wins against a pro stall deck.
Anyway - stall vs stall can be boring. Very boring.

[Scaredgirl]

About UW. The most "fair" entrance to the war is exactly at the point of a perfectly average team. 50% winrate, no penalties, slight event card bonuses. Since UW is positioned higher than that, it gets a free advantage. Event card from round 1 helped at lot, but it was not enough.

Like I said in chat, the numbers people have been posting here are wrong and not all variables have been considered. We'll take another look into starting Vault size, but I can say with 100% certainty that the "UW auto-win" is very far from the truth.

Don't be surprised that people were worried. They did not know about the round 1 event card, and even now UW gets a high position for absolutely no achievement.

When will people stop whining about the UW?

It's the same old story of expert opinions and calculations based on guessing but presented as facts.

[TStar]

Considering the abysmal level of activity so far in the UW tournament, I'm surprised people feel that somehow UW will be this dangerous powerhouse. 

[Acsabi44]

I'm sure if the organozers feel that UW would have too much advantege over the average team, they will include a convenient event card to balance the scales.