Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Well, since there are no plans to be made for this night, how about a plan in advance for the next night? Maybe I should stop thinking this far ahead, but as long as there is no Core of Death and DoubleCapitals is mafia, this idea will reduce the PoE by at least three by sacrificing a single mislynch opportunity at most. That's not too bad, right?

Spoiler for N5 plan:

iancudorinmarian targets Calindu and Submachine.
Coffeeditto targets Calindu.
Submachine targets no one.

If the plan succeeds and no mafia is caught, iancudorinmarian cannot be mafia. That leaves one mislynch opportunity and two people in the PoE: w3 and Coffee.
If the plan fails because only Calindu dies, iancudorinmarian is mafia.
If the plan fails because iancudorinmarian and Coffee both fail to use their ability, Submachine is mafia.
If the plan fails because only Coffees ability fails, Coffee is lying scum.

[iancudorinmarian]

Sounds reasonable.

[kaempfer13]

I like the plan (provided dc is scum and we only need to find one more, but cmon its obvious)

[Submachine]

iancudorinmarian targets Calindu and Submachine.
Coffeeditto targets Calindu.
Submachine targets no one.

If the plan succeeds and no mafia is caught, iancudorinmarian cannot be mafia. That leaves one mislynch opportunity and two people in the PoE: w3 and Coffee.
If the plan fails because only Calindu dies, iancudorinmarian is mafia.
If the plan fails because iancudorinmarian and Coffee both fail to use their ability, Submachine is mafia.
If the plan fails because only Coffees ability fails, Coffee is lying scum.

I volunteer to not use my ability on any night, regardless whether I like the plan or not.

The plan nets us the controlled death of me and Calindu, along with the nightkill. Assuming worst case scenario, that's 3 town death.[1]

Speculation:

Night 4: 8 town, 2 mafia --> kdz dies
Day 5: 7 town, 2 mafia --> DC dies

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 7 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 6 town, 2 mafia

If Core of Death is activated tonight:

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 6 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 5 town, 2 mafia

The next night starts, where we instantiate the plan. At worst, 3 town dies [Refer to 1].

The next day:

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 3 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 2 town, 2 mafia

So, I like the plan, but only under the following conditions:

• We lynch mafia next.
• If we did not lynch mafia, Core of Death was not activated.

TL;DR: Yeah, all in all, I like the plan. I do not much care about my own survival, as I do understand that I am unlikely to be nightkilled, and if I get to endgame, people will suspect me by principle. (That is why I'm glad that I got one of the roles that I asked for: something expendable.) I am town though, and if Calindu is also town, I feel safe to calculate with the worst case scenario. Just be prepared for it.~

[worldwideweb3]

Well, since there are no plans to be made for this night, how about a plan in advance for the next night? Maybe I should stop thinking this far ahead, but as long as there is no Core of Death and DoubleCapitals is mafia, this idea will reduce the PoE by at least three by sacrificing a single mislynch opportunity at most. That's not too bad, right?

Spoiler for N5 plan:

iancudorinmarian targets Calindu and Submachine.
Coffeeditto targets Calindu.
Submachine targets no one.

If the plan succeeds and no mafia is caught, iancudorinmarian cannot be mafia. That leaves one mislynch opportunity and two people in the PoE: w3 and Coffee.
If the plan fails because only Calindu dies, iancudorinmarian is mafia.
If the plan fails because iancudorinmarian and Coffee both fail to use their ability, Submachine is mafia.
If the plan fails because only Coffees ability fails, Coffee is lying scum.

You do not have to worry about me as lynch option as I can guarantee you I am town :thumbs-up:

[Submachine]

Quoted from the Priority section of the rules:

"Death will not stop abilities from being used on the current night."

If the plan succeeds and no mafia is caught, iancudorinmarian cannot be mafia. That leaves one mislynch opportunity and two people in the PoE: w3 and Coffee.
If the plan fails because only Calindu dies, iancudorinmarian is mafia.
If the plan fails because iancudorinmarian and Coffee both fail to use their ability, Submachine is mafia.
If the plan fails because only Coffees ability fails, Coffee is lying scum.

@TorB: IMPORTANT. What happens if Calindu uses his ability? Account that too!

[worldwideweb3]

Cal has already used his ability, he said

[Submachine]

Cal has already used his ability, he said

"He said", like lies do not exist. Account a scenario where Calindu uses his ability that night.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Speculation:

Night 4: 8 town, 2 mafia --> kdz dies
Day 5: 7 town, 2 mafia --> DC dies

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 7 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 6 town, 2 mafia

If Core of Death is activated tonight:

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 6 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 5 town, 2 mafia

The next night starts, where we instantiate the plan. At worst, 3 town dies [Refer to 1].

The next day:

• Day 6 (DC was mafia): 3 town, 1 mafia
• Day 6 (DC was town): 2 town, 2 mafia

Why do you think kdz will die instead of rob? To keep the doc alive sounds like a terrible mafia strategy unless rob is mafia or mafia think they can frame rob as one. If we're at lylo and rob is still alive, it might be worth considering. But not before then.

@TorB: IMPORTANT. What happens if Calindu uses his ability? Account that too!

kaempfer13 and Calindu have already established that the single use Flash Counter has been wasted. If this is false, Calindu is lying scum and only Coffee dies.

[Submachine]

Also, I haven't closely paid attention to all claimed roles, but if we assume someone has a different role they claimed, account those possibilities too. Just for completeness sake.

Edit: Ah, Torb responded.

Why do you think kdz will die instead of rob?

I said it was speculation. It does not really matter which town dies, I just wanted to use someone as example who is the most likely to be town.

[Submachine]

To keep the doc alive sounds like a terrible mafia strategy

I prefer being vague about what is a good strategy for mafia, so sometimes you might see me say intentionally misleading stuff like www gets nigthkilled tonight. (And I expect the same from all others as well.) I already dislike how we called attention to the rob NK, even though I tried to shade him as much as I could to make mafia believe kdz is a better target, but it's pointless now.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

The role lies I can see that could prevent the plan from happening are iancudorinmarian and Submachine, which have the same end results as them having the role they claim and are scum. Coffee is already confirmed Cecilia.

You shading rob and looking for deep town just made me scum read you more, lol. Hence the framing speculation