Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[moehrpi]

Just so we're 100% clear, eating Coffee was a good play as either alignment so that doesn't say much by itself, and it's amusing that multiple people are reading it both ways. It's his reactions afterward that you should be focusing on for your read.

Moe, I don't remember you mentioning a readslist, but if I had I would have called you out anyway since it didn't exist yet.

I am majorly mistaken here. Must have been dozing off and vividly imagining/dreaming up a post of yours. Really sorry about that... and I was so sure about it, too. :/
FWIW, it was singling me out and 'demanding [my] readslist immediately'. It was just out of place. Again my apologies.

It's called banter, rob, maybe you've heard of it?

If real life relationships are any indication for me, I'm doomed to lose in anything that boils down to bantering well... ALthough, beyond banter I think post count likely ends up being heavily skewed by in-game life expectancy.

/Moe you can vote extension (or abstain on EXT) indpendent of game voting.

Thanks for the clarification! I probably would have figured it out by now. .Not that it mattered in that case.

My flip on shock and kae is a result of me rereading roles and which ones are faster. In fact, after getting a mod question answered, my town read on shock has lessened and my town read on kaempf has improved.

Most people suspected that your confirmation wasn't waterproof in the first place. But that explanation should have been right next to your readslist when your view on shock first publicly changed.

kaempfer, welcome to "connecting with shock" I guess?

FYI, shock - I'm going to read every spoiler anybody makes... why wouldn't I? A spoiler possibly contains information or something to look into, I need information so don't expect me to avoid any sort of spoiler you give. ALso, seems odd you are hinting at thinking opening your spoilers is in some way alignment indicative??!

It is indicative of shock's reads. They are different from reads another person would make in his position. He's playing his own game, which he is winning by a landslide btw.

Ge0, you're here, good.

Please address why you went from reading me / my N0 as towny to thinking I'm scum and voting me... holding that vote on me still now. I want to see inside your thought process that led to you making that read change on me.

I don't know if I have an answer that will fully satisfy you but here goes.

I do not think I am currently very good at the game. My lack of knowledge on both the players and the game means it is fairly hard to make reads and contribute meaningful content. This is info I knew would be true and possibly problematic before the game had even begun. Nevertheles, I attempted to contribute to the best of my abilities, particularly after being called out by a couple people.

My first attempt at contributing I did read you as slight town. I abstained from voting because at the time I didn't want to jump on a wagon. Link then mentioned that witholding my vote was the "scummiest stance I could take", so I went back and re-read some posts to see if I could find any logic for me to vote on.

As a reminder, here is the tally at the time, before I voted:

Spoiler for Hidden:

rob77dp (2) - Linkcat, serprex
MasterWalks (1) - DoubleCapitals
TheonlyrealBeef (1) - rob77dp
Submachine (1) - Calindu

After reading through things, I was unable to make any hard conclusions on scumreads and whatnot. I couldn't find a reason to add a vote for MW, torb, or sub. As stated in my reads post, I liked link and serp's logic. You were pointing fingers at people who no one else seemed to be pointing fingers at, and made a vote on torb. Others called you out on it for a bad read. You being a fate egg had not yet been explored. Does this all add up to me having a scumread on you? Not exactly. But it was at the time the strongest conclusion I had, in a time where I was being pressured to vote.

I hold the vote on you currently only because I don't know who to change my vote to and I don't want to withdraw my vote entirely.

Also I realize it may be frustrating as a vet to play with newer (read: weaker) players. I know I get frustrated in the games I play. So, apologies for potentially being a bad player.

You're doing fine. Just keep doing what your doing and eventually post more as your confidence in our own judgement grows. Opinions are always appreciated.

also stop trying to guess my role this early.

I want to qualify my previous statement that I dislike you memeing. This one I did enjoy.

TorB, a thing you have to understand about mafia is that normally lynch and nk alternate. The latter will always hit a town. The former usually doesnt have that much better odds than random to hit a mafia. If you have one shot that you have to use immediately or lose it, shooting at random has effectively a better chance of hitting a mafia member per death created than the lynch, as the lynch requires a nightkill to have occured before and usually people arent that amazing at hitting mafia with the lynch.

I'm saying this now, because in both etg and the last mafia  you used too basically think the same I did (just better) and this time we somehow seem to have fairly different opinions about robs action, and that made me suspicious of you until identified that that seems to be the source of our disagreement.

Thank you for trying to step up and protect rob with your out of tone post. I was already considering you both for mafia, but this practically confirms it for me.

Well, you are wrong about at least one thing.
Besides I wouldnt panic that much over rob (in the obv nonexistent world of us w/w) now considering the votecount.

Anyway, what would you have done if you were fate egg and rolled oty (it's gone the next night). from what i am gathering you would have holstered? I'm not the only one that can explain to you why thats a mistake as either alignement.

I don't like how you feels so strongly about your convictions. It's not a mistake as either alignment. It's not a great play as either alignment as Link says. Get real. Scepticism is a good basis, tunnelling leaves out the bigger picture.



Still quite a bit lagging behind (page ~33). :|

[kaempfer13]

vv:
moehrpi
serprex
Man, I must be some kind of genius or sth.

v+:
MasterWalks:
Hats off if he faked the thing about his powerrole, clearing a player and than taking it back (apparently based on an answer to a rule question, which I find believable). I just can't see him of all people to make that up.

shockcannon: Reasons, some of which I dont want to mention right now.

rob77dp: Fate egg action is NAI, but actually makes perfect sense unlike some people think. Overall he seems highly invested in keeping discussion going .I also have a bias given that i see Linkcats push on him as wolfy.

Submachine: I still think his overall confusion and questioning, while not very effective, wouldn't really serve any purpose if he was scum other than a mild distraction and me reading him this way. Even if he has high WIM I think he would find better uses of his time if he were scum.

DoubleCapitals: I'm not sure why he would immediately admit to not having one of the confirmable town roles (its sorta baddish play as either alignement), but I lean he would have been less likely to do that as scum (as it makes him mechanically more lynchable). Also he seems to have made an excel tool to iso people more easily and would have shared it if he wasnt concerned about rulebreaks (actually I think this was in blab so someone should post the log here). Furthermore I find myself clicking with a lot of his reads and he seems pretty helpfull in general.
Also probably not w/w with Linkcat due to the freeze thing.

n+:
andretimpa: this is mostly due to how many people are ready to lynch him and how my scumleans are especially open to the thought.

killsdazombies: Really dumb read: I think a mafia member would be more acutely aware of EoD times.

Annele
Drops a little if Sub is scum, due to shocks observation.

iancudorinmarian: Some very reachy reasons to give him a teensy townread, but i am almost embarassed to write them. Fatigue might have kicked in, this is the last one i reviewed. Like his annoyance with the warden role and claiming that DC wouldn't be w/w with his scumreads. His minimum effort stance annoys me even now, but unfortunately I know its normal for him, otherwise I would have deduced points.

n:

Calindu: Other than his readlist he has been almost fully focussing on mechanics.His readlist is also not too inspiring, so I dont really have a read on him.


n-:
Geo:
Regardless of alignement his inexperience is showing. I can see the perspective of town not wanting to get lynched and not having individual reads this early as well. However it disproportionally affects wolfes, as they have to worry a lot more about their survival and it's often hard to make up a read on a person whose alignement you are already perfectly aware of.

w:
TheonlyrealBeef
See previous post

Linkcat
I actually saw a lot of sensible posts from him after i called him out, so I will reread and reevaluate. I still have an underlying bad feeling about him though.


1.
12.
15.
16.

[serprex]

moe, no daydream, just mistaken identity. It was timpa: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-73-by-playeroa/msg1297064/#msg1297064

[kaempfer13]

See, the major issue here is that the math is based purely on the kill itself with no mind on the reactions of people, in a game based on reading people.

Ok, but same logic applies to mafia doing that kill. If he's modkilled anyway this is just a waste

Right. So perhaps rob is not being truthful and is using this excuse for his own justification.

Wee wooo, wee woo; you are suggesting here that mafia rob should have eaten a mafia member to get confirmed. This evidently didnt occur. The only people that have information on who they are working with are the mafia (and deja vus, but they obv dont eat people); Also the only way rob would have known if coffee was inactive is if both were mafia. Town rob has no insight on that other than lack of presence in thread.

No? Just that rob Fate Egg Otyugh eating a mafia would not prove anything because that is what he could have done.

Are you arguing that you wouldnt do it despite it being mechanically correct, because you feel it wrong to deny people to keep playing the game longer? Are you even trying to win?

Sure, winning through uncovering the mafia through deduction, that is the fun part, not doing a crapshoot and praying you hit something good. But it is only mechanically correct if you are guaranteed there will be no backfire, you might even get policy lynched.

If the math adds up but you get lynched as town for it afterwards, you just screwed up big time. You can blame me, you can blame the rest of town, I blame the shortsightedness of a potential town Fate Egg Otyugh. But I do not believe rob is one.

I can kind of see that you could have meant that, but if so you could use some help with how to correctly use a cycle x vig in a mafia game. I cant be arsed to keep arguing with you about it and this is sth that other people can explain to you.

The short if it is, if a play has an average positive outcome for town (provided it was done with good intentions), it should be done and people shouldn't get lynched over it.

[serprex]

I wouldn't call 4/19 an average positive

Mafia lose because reads etc. Say you have the option Day 0 to vig 15 players. Do you?

[kaempfer13]

I wouldn't call 4/19 an average positive

Mafia lose because reads etc. Say you have the option Day 0 to vig 15 players. Do you?

[serprex]

*12

[kaempfer13]

If I shoot 15 of the other 17 players (I know my alignement after all) only 2 people of to me unknown alignement remain. Chances are pretty high that i wipe out the mafia immediately.

[kaempfer13]

You can downscale it any way you like

[kaempfer13]

Well, there is a tiny issue if you bring the number of players to an even number at day start and no further killpower outside of lynch and nk exist as you dont actually change the number of towncontrolled kills.

[kaempfer13]

rob77dp (3) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon
Submachine (1) - Calindu
andretimpa (2) - Linkcat, rob77dp
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (2) - Annele, kaempfer13

Literally every other wagon is at least n+ imo so this is the only viable wagon fmpov. I do have to reread what Link said more recently though.

[Linkcat]

Slept more than 4 hours this time.

Right before I did so, me and Torb were working on a rob/andre connection. Rob then immediately turns on andre despite being noncommittal earlier.

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-73-by-playeroa/msg1297284/#msg1297284