Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[DoubleCapitals]

serp, do you not trust annele enough that you still want me to flay her

[serprex]

Annele's second scummiest of 12 players. 3 scum left. Plus, in this scenario, we have to assume you're town

So 7 solid town out of 12. Leaves 60% Annele is scum as an optimistic estimate

Is it worth it for scum!Annele to seek town cred & devour geo? No, because right now geo being tomorrow's next lynch is her way to survive another day. So 60% we skip lynch but are now in a world where Annele isn't tomorrow's mislynch, 40% we skip a NK by accelerating geo's flip & get to flip shock before Annele

But I expect Anubis would target geo in that world. & mw won't see who targetted geo if he targets geo because Anubis blocks that. So in the 40% world we don't get an extra lynch

tl;dr DC please continue targetting Annele

[serprex]

Paragraph 3 pretty terribly worded but I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to repair

[rob77dp]

andretimpa (3) - Calindu, Submachine, MasterWalks
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, serprex, shockcannon, moehrpi
Annele (5) - Ge0metry, Linkcat, andretimpa, iancudorinmarian, rob77dp
*abstention* (3) - DC, TorB, kdz

Annele (2) - DoubleCapitals, iancudorinmarian
kaempfer13 (2) - Ge0metry v1.2, Annele
Linkcat (6) - shockcannon, Calindu, kaempfer13, serprex, TheonlyrealBeef, Killsdazombies
Calindu (5) - rob77dp, Linkcat, MasterWalks, andretimpa, Submachine

killsdazombies (3) - iancudorinmarian, DoubleCapitals, Annele
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
iancudorinmarian (9) - Killsdazombies, MasterWalks, rob77dp, shockcannon, Calindu, serprex, kaempfer13, Submachine, andretimpa

From Day 2, I think Cal gets a town lean/bump because I suspect ian would have felt motivation to be on Link to better ensure not losing Cal in that EOD2. Nothing solid, but ... yeah.
Still on Day 2, it looks to me like at least one of Ge0 / Annele / DC is mafia should Cal be town. We'll know on DC soon^TM... was that remnant of a kae wagon on Day 2 end leftoevers from a race between Annele and kae that day? I could see a scum!Annele scenario where teammates Ge0/Annele are motivated to be on kae to make sure his wagong gains steam to surpass Annele but then when Link/Cal take over as the leading lynch candidates (if Cal is town) then it went from saving scum!Annele to t/t wagons and as mafia who gives a rip in that world right? (Fly in my soup, or wrench in my plans, there being that I think Annele probably legit AWOL at EOD.)

Ugh - getting late for me tonight and those EOD totals are making me cross-eyed. Maybe others weigh in? Or I'll look more later.

Note: kdz/MW are green because I consider them lock!town; serp is lock for me too. I obviously colored myself YMMV.

[Submachine]

In for a quick note to say that if anyone else has a GN use tonight, I volunteer to be checked. Being conftown seems much more fun than regular n, then people would finally stop saying that "Sub is just Sub".
(Previous day I thought Cal can make kdz use his ability again today, but then I remembered GN has a special restriction. So this is mostly for Eggs and other Vultures.)

I also believe I have stuff that can contribute more on the long run.~

For any Psions out there, I suggest checking Geo's claim. He is one of the 4-5 people who can be Anubis.

It has been only implied but not said outright, but in case DC does not block Annele, that seems to be the concensus that Annele does not use her ability tonight anyway. (So, just in case DC doesn't do the flay, Annele can stay.)

I already know what I am doing tonight.~

[DoubleCapitals]

Being conftown seems much more fun than regular n, then people would finally stop saying that "Sub is just Sub".

Sasuga Sub-sama

[DoubleCapitals]

Hot take if I flip scum y'all should look at Annele scum too

Mind Flayer on someone who's gonna unleash a special surprise and doesn't need to use her ability until the time is ripe - good shit.

Doesn't mean she's town if I flip town though

[serprex]

Huh missed geo's last 3 posts. Interesting

[serprex]

geo: please target me tonight

[serprex]

lol I just woke up, so missed two things: I'm immaterial & obsession doesn't notify

Prefer geo to target Annele & then we can have competing wagons between them

[rob77dp]

I can't seem to shake this sensation of something being "off" about shock\kae duo... Ge0 approach to the kdz train on day 3 was odd if Ge0 is scum as kdz is very likely town and scum would know this so why make up some weird kdz!town reason to not take the "self-pres" freebie opportunity to vote on kdz?? Reading Ge0 last few posts again has me doubting my scum read on him at this point... Hmmm

[serprex]

team: geo/ian/kdz/annele