Elements Mafia 62 - by Solaris

[iancudorinmarian]

TL;DR; pls, I am not going to read 8 pages.

[dawn to dusk]

Tl;dr everyone throws rocks and Link thinks Rob is mafia

[danil]

Well, from what I've read so far, I'm pretty likely to get either lynched or nightkilled pretty early due to playing the "new" card. I don't expect that any amount of defense will save me, but I would like to point out that the gambler's argument for selection is a logical fallacy. If people who have played the "new" card before had all been mafia, but there is currently no logical basis to tell if I'm mafia, it's literally a coin flip to tell if I'm town or mafia, as previous cases have no implication on those happening right now. Gut feeling, intuition, and relying on past games might be valuable in cases where no logic presents itself, but shouldn't we try to find some logic before putting these three strategies into play?

I might be completely wrong, but hey, it's my first mafia

[DoubleCapitals]

No, you're new, so it is in mafia's favour to keep you alive. All the good players die early. And people like me survive despite playing more games than anyone *sip*

Gimme dat tea sky

[Solaris]

Breadpost? Breadhost.

Sorry I suck at this guys. Rules have been updated to reflect what was already stated in thread,

[rob77dp]

danil, to expand a little on what DC stated:

you are not really anywhere near dying yet. Keep in mind that it is still night phase (no voting and no lynch occur at night), mafia still have a LOT of targets (frankly, most of them will be higher priority given the limited historical data and in-game evidence known about you ), and just being new is not a reason we lynch for around here, in my experience.

[Espithel]

can i be serious for once claiming vanilla is an idiotic act because it gives mafia more info and makes it easier to snipe down the power roles

It also speeds up the process by which artemis can investigate people.
I'm so sorry that the tiny speed-up for this process - something that could actually win us the game - is somehow completely outweighed by the even tinier less than 0.01% chance boost a mafia has of murdering artemis now.

And everything gives information to the mafia, including you saying it gives the mafia more info. It's an inevitability. What's your point, exactly?

And whilst you're at it, you had 0 issues with me claiming paranoiac and jester in previous mafias, which I claimed early for the exact same reason I present here and there, yet now you throw a wobbly? Can you at least be consistent?

Congratulations DC, you win the award for the worst statistic in any mafia game.

To be fair, his tea makes up for it.

Well, from what I've read so far, I'm pretty likely to get either lynched or nightkilled pretty early due to playing the "new" card. I don't expect that any amount of defense will save me, but I would like to point out that the gambler's argument for selection is a logical fallacy. If people who have played the "new" card before had all been mafia, but there is currently no logical basis to tell if I'm mafia, it's literally a coin flip to tell if I'm town or mafia, as previous cases have no implication on those happening right now. Gut feeling, intuition, and relying on past games might be valuable in cases where no logic presents itself, but shouldn't we try to find some logic before putting these three strategies into play?

I might be completely wrong, but hey, it's my first mafia ;)

I like you. You're going to fit into here very quickly, so welcome. :D
... But seriously, flaunting that you're new isn't a good idea.
Especially when you start talking (rightfully so) about the gambler's fallacy whilst going on about how new you are.
It's actually kinda creeeeepy.
You're not in danger, however. We're all just too kind to lynch nubs. That and we have this stupid expectation that if link doesn't die within two days he's mafia.

Also, ffs, I think you're both mafia, Link/Rob, by this extremely early point. The entire exchange just feels so fake and both of your arguments are fektarded. It's almost like what I tried against jonathanicansus last round (except I was probably right anyway.)

[danil]

-snip-
You're not in danger, however.
-snip-

I think that I should retain the mental philosophy of "everybody's in danger, at any time, anywhere," but thanks for your kind words

[Naii_the_Baf]

I'm too lazy and don't want to read anything but I'm just posting for you people to know I'm alive.

[DoubleCapitals]

can i be serious for once claiming vanilla is an idiotic act because it gives mafia more info and makes it easier to snipe down the power roles

It also speeds up the process by which artemis can investigate people.
I'm so sorry that the tiny speed-up for this process - something that could actually win us the game - is somehow completely outweighed by the even tinier less than 0.01% chance boost a mafia has of murdering artemis now.

And everything gives information to the mafia, including you saying it gives the mafia more info. It's an inevitability. What's your point, exactly?

And whilst you're at it, you had 0 issues with me claiming paranoiac and jester in previous mafias, which I claimed early for the exact same reason I present here and there, yet now you throw a wobbly? Can you at least be consistent?

Well, I'll concede that fat. Claiming vanilla is useless because everyone will do it. But claiming that it's a less than "0.01%" chance Atermis gets killed is ridiculous. But I get it. Every town member claims vanilla, we achieve nothing. Fine. I'll retract that point. It just irks me a little inside when people claim this early though. My fault.

And yes, I didn't have an issue of you claiming jester prior. I'll only count the mafia game back then, because everything before then was so far back, and the state of mafia has far since improved then. Back then I didn't give two shits, I think. Anyway, this isn't a "one-size fits all" policy. Your claiming jester in a role-madness game means less than in such a game where most people here are nillas. Also, being effectively killed by Solaris back then meant that you were effectively useless except as an outsider to give opinions and shit (which, admittedly, sucks)

[DoubleCapitals]

fact*

[Espithel]

I was originally going to say it was a 0.1% increased chance, but I didn't think the hyperbole was obvious enough, so I made it 0.01%.

Otherwise, fair enough.