Let's try to summarize that day.
godisnowonline {7} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, worldwideweb3
CleanOnion {5} - RootRanger, mathman101, andretimpa, JonathanCrazyJ, fabian771
1011686 <2> - Fippe94, killsdazombies
Then I voted, CO voted (both confirmed town, at least if you believe me to be town) and then Solaris voted.
gino then claimed, and people agreed that he was not a great lynch target (note that CO and Fippe agreed early, so it didn't seem like manipulation)
Espi says that math is still the better lynch, but 1011 is a more possible lynch target. math then appears, which makes 1011 lynch possible.
CO initiates the 1011 pile.
Solaris, math, w3 and JCJ join the pile.
And then we have lots and lots of bread.
And here's my analysis:
- If gino was actually mafia, it is very unlikely for Solaris to be mafia. He broke the tie from a CO lynch.
- To add, CO is a confirmed threat for the mafia so it would be odd for Solaris to steer the lynch off of him. Thus it is not likely for him to be mafia. Now before you get to any funny conclusion, this does not say whether gino is mafia or not. This only makes Solaris lean town.
- math, however, is the turning point for the lynch switch. So if gino turns out to be mafia, then it is also highly likely for him to be mafia.
- w3 was initially on gino relatively deep into the pile, but not at a definite lynch (which means it was probably not simply a way of playing safe) before switching to 1011. Therefore his vote is probably not indicative of anything.
- JCJ makes it final. He was initially on the CO train, though this might simply be a move for him to look town for switching vote from CO.
math is very suspicious.
gino and JCJ are kind of suspicious.
Solaris looks town.