And here's my analysis:
- If gino was actually mafia, it is very unlikely for Solaris to be mafia. He broke the tie from a CO lynch.
- To add, CO is a confirmed threat for the mafia so it would be odd for Solaris to steer the lynch off of him. Thus it is not likely for him to be mafia. Now before you get to any funny conclusion, this does not say whether gino is mafia or not. This only makes Solaris lean town.
- math, however, is the turning point for the lynch switch. So if gino turns out to be mafia, then it is also highly likely for him to be mafia.
- w3 was initially on gino relatively deep into the pile, but not at a definite lynch (which means it was probably not simply a way of playing safe) before switching to 1011. Therefore his vote is probably not indicative of anything.
- JCJ makes it final. He was initially on the CO train, though this might simply be a move for him to look town for switching vote from CO.
math is very suspicious.
gino and JCJ are kind of suspicious.
Solaris looks town.
It's funny because I sort of agree with some of your analysis, as I said that the time, even though i thought it was the correct thing to do, it felt a little shady.
Some though, is a little counter-intuitive.
To start with, looking at the order of the votes is completely pointless. We decided as a group to do it before a single vote was changed, and in trying to post my vote change, 2-3 others had beaten me to it (red message "others have posted since you last blah blah blah"). UTA complained of the same thing, but decided to not vote because it was already over the threshold.
Secondly, you say the train itself looked sketchy, but then that my vote change could have been made to appear town which doesn't really make sense.
I'll be clear, I 100% consider you town, because it would amount to game-throwing by Sky if you weren't, so it's your logic i'm questioning not your intentions.
I'll re-iterate why i thought it was the right move to lynch numbers:
-look at gino's claim. If that's a fake claim then he's a fantastic bluffer, so for me anyway I thought that he really leaned town.
-Fippe's claim about Onion (since proved true) followed the
same logic that i used when sky claimed about you.
-numbers was the only other achievable lynch that night.
Yeah, the whole vote change late on feels a bit sketchy, but doesn't mean it is. Unless gino is mafia. We could lynch gino and that would put teh whole thing to bed if he was civvy too, but that's a bit pointless because I think he is, so it would be a bit of a wasted lynch.
having said that, I actually agree with your lynch target. math took an early stance on the vote change, so short of lynching gino himself, lynching math could give us the most information via alignment flip.
mathman101 {2} - Sera, JonathanCrazyJ
Solaris {2} - rob77dp, worldwideweb3
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris
fabian771 {2} - UTAlan, andretimpa
andretimpa {1} - DoubleCapitals
Poll
