[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[Jenkar]

Or 42 seconds, dependin' who you're comparin' to.

[gumbeh]

Okay. Whew. Finally did it.

I did 30 more games on this thing, took a break, then discovered that "Custom AI6" from the trainer will play exactly like the FG in question. (Except for Osiris who was buffed in the latest patch due to Catapult being buffed.) I took that route since I only had a small handful of matches left to acheive normalization. Right now I'm more interested in grinding AI3 and making the move to Platinum League with my score, but it feels good to finally have this task complete.

Here are those recent matches as well as the complete, merged stats from the whole run. Surprisingly close to being exactly 35% cards won! I really felt like I was getting an unfairly low number of spin wins, but I guess roughly the right amount is in fact happening. Yay.

Much closer to Jenkar's numbers now, unfortunately, but I still had a lot of fun with this deck. One could claim that my previous FGei on this deck was due to a "lucky streak", but you could also hypothesize that my latest games were an "unlucky streak". I lost vs Incarnate, Elidnis, Chaos Lord, and Decay! All of the above are FGs who are normally super easy for this deck to take on.

I hope that in later stages of the study we can cook up a slightly improved, more consistent variant. Those 4 losses were especially annoying.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/13420217/Statmasta/Statmasta4000_OO_VVV_2.1.ods
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/13420217/Statmasta/Statmasta4000_OO_VVV_merged_final.ods

[Jenkar]

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,30140.msg409631.html#msg409631

This is a study about drop rates. Any help is apreciated, as it well help to enhance the accuracy of FGei.

[kirchj33]

deck	Turbo Speed FG Farming
players	kirchj33

version	1.285		win-rate	40.88%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	39.8%
games	159		Score/h	371
win-loss-(EM)	65-94-(12)		Score/h (n)	354
time (h:m:s)	07:45:31		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3567
min/game	02:56		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3549

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-980    -141    827    -601    1128    928    -210    754    -1149    126    1780    133    -1208    -63       -1241    176    281    509    739    126    836    -396    -1565    -196    688    534    -453    806    1491	-980    1765    5539    -601    6020    5537    1716    4277    -1149    2501    9009    3704    -1208    1622       -1241    2820    4051    3393    5021    3775    5214    1700    -1565    1976    4231    3380    1053    4860    8587	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1    5        3     3    1    5        2    5    2        2        1    1    3    8    1    3    1        1    2    6    1    4    4	5     5     3     3               4     3     3     4     1     4     7     6     4     2     2     2     3     2     3     5     5     4     1     4     6     3		1      1                              2                  3                                                            2                              1            2

"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?74tr0x97mohtf9d (http://www.mediafire.com/?74tr0x97mohtf9d)

[Polari]

Someone might wanna test drive this list:

by Polari

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

6rn 6rn 6rn 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q8 7q8 7qe 7qe 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80i 80i 8pu

(See this thread here (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,29973.0.html))

Personally I'm almost always doing something else while playing so I'd rather not get into the business of recording time and efficiency stats, but I've got wins/losses/EMs here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_GB&hl=en_GB&key=0AgxDeoyDoRYZdGltLUNHXzF6WXlMbFUtNnZGcjBwSkE&output=html). As of writing this, 36 wins (25 EM) out of 50 games (+ 22 wins out of 35, 1 EM with a shardless version). It looks a lot like IGT but is much more straightforward in how it plays out. It could probably be improved - I mean, it's an upped copy Djhopper's unupped list with 3 shards thrown in - but even as it is it's been insane for me. Oh yeah, and it's fast too.

[Toge111]

Locking card-draw was the strategy for many FGs in I've GotP Time deck. It's not possible with this variant. Interesting that you've got such stats

[Djhopper :)]

Someone might wanna test drive this list:

by Djhopper :)

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

6rn 6rn 6rn 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q8 7q8 7qe 7qe 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 7ri 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80i 80i 8pu

(See this thread here (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,29973.0.html))

Personally I'm almost always doing something else while playing so I'd rather not get into the business of recording time and efficiency stats, but I've got wins/losses/EMs here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_GB&hl=en_GB&key=0AgxDeoyDoRYZdGltLUNHXzF6WXlMbFUtNnZGcjBwSkE&output=html). As of writing this, 36 wins (25 EM) out of 50 games (+ 22 wins out of 35, 1 EM with a shardless version). It looks a lot like IGT but is much more straightforward in how it plays out. It could probably be improved - I mean, it's an upped copy Djhopper's unupped list with 3 shards thrown in - but even as it is it's been insane for me. Oh yeah, and it's fast too.

I haven't looked into the upped version much but I would like to see these stats confirmed in case this is really as good as it looks!

Locking card-draw was the strategy for many FGs in I've GotP Time deck. It's not possible with this variant. Interesting that you've got such stats

This deck is very different to IGT: It is MUCH faster. This should give it a fgei to die for

[Jenkar]

@ Polari : do a fg by fg decomposition. I'll try it if i find the time after CCYB (nearly finished) and voodoo.

[Polari]

@ Polari : do a fg by fg decomposition. I'll try it if i find the time after CCYB (nearly finished) and voodoo.

Posted in the deck thread (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,29973.msg413130.html#msg413130)

[Jenkar]

deck	CCYB
players	Jenkar

version	1.285		win-rate	44,74%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	45,61%
games	304		Score/h	500
win-loss-(EM)	136-168-(56)		Score/h (n)	525
time (h:m:s)	16:34:35		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3686
min/game	03:16		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3801

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-261    -26    -105    1187    1130    -638    -13    509    -387    1011    -301    -51    -476    1336       -467    873    50    468    741    604    1621    772    1242    948    846    -726    37    1062    1239	1720    1865    1319    5846    5616    195    1821    3806    1783    5907    429    1923    -112    6685       591    4831    1775    3205    4878    3763    7105    5076    6177    5317    5237    -726    2610    5735    7386	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	2    3    1    12    9     1    3    5    1    4    1    3    1    6    1    10    4    5    5    7    8    8    8    4    8        3    7    6	9     10     5     1     2      12     10     7     5     3     8     9     19     1     8     5     10     6     4     4         5     2     1     6     3     7     2     4		1      1      6      5            1      3            2                        3            5      1      3      1      1      8      1      5      1      3                  2      3

[Rember]

Hmm, it's strange seeing CCYB constantly below 50% winrate.

[gumbeh]

What's next? I have a renewed interest in helping because there's some stuff I want to do with the data when it's all ready!

What can I do to help?