*Author

ggabriel2

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg364134#msg364134
« Reply #156 on: July 11, 2011, 03:19:59 am »
No, I don't wish.  The standard protocol, as mentioned, will be to tease out skipped data once enough raw data is collected, based off some determined FGei.
The deck is intended for aggressive skipping, but the StatMasta sample I posted followed your instructions to the letter. You specify not to skip any gods, but that "If you are 95% sure you cannot win a match, you may quit out", specifying that if you were literally out of options (e.g. quanta lock) and could no longer win that you could bail. I played out every single game until the point where it was no longer possible to win--not merely difficult or unlikely, not "well assuming he plays one more of those" or "unless I draw the next three cards I really need", not just 95% sure, but 100% absolutely impossible based on the present conditions in the game. I played through and recorded loss times every game for gods that I'm pretty sure have a < 1% winrate with the deck given.

quick question for you.
How much do the tower shields help? I don't see them helping all that much.
I posted a thread (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,28482.0.html) where I go into more detail, but they do save you on a pretty routine basis. Most of the gods that lack PC can also spam enough creatures to potentially overwhelm you even with good antimatter/CP draws. You can certainly do "good enough" without the shields, but overall I'm pretty sure it's substantially to your advantage to have them in the deck.

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg364470#msg364470
« Reply #157 on: July 11, 2011, 07:36:16 pm »
ggabers,

I have no problem with the data or designing a deck with aggressive skips.  I think this is great.  There are two problems with this:

1. None of the other decks have been tested with aggressive skips in mind.  Again, as mentioned before, I don't forsee other decks passing this one in terms of efficiency if the data holds and the skip data is removed, but this will require more games (goal: 500) played before we can start taking this approach.

For more information on a possible plan for this approach, see here: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,25609.msg381203.html#msg381203

2.  I have no doubt the data you posted is fair, but in order to keep things on an even level, we have to exclude data posted by those that make the decks themselves.  This is so that there is not a testing bias involved.  I will add your deck to the study and I know Jenkar is already working on getting some data posted on the deck.

Offline Jenkar

  • Legendary Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4199
  • Country: fr
  • Reputation Power: 58
  • Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.
  • Heart's made of shadows
  • Awards: Slice of Elements 8th Birthday CakeSlice of Elements 7th Birthday CakeChampionship League 2/2013 WinnerSlice of Elements 4th Birthday Cake6th Trials - Master of AirWinner of Revive the Archive 2!Slice of Elements 3rd Birthday CakeBeginners League 1/2012 WinnerWeekly Tournament Winner5th Trials - Master of AirAvatar of Patience - Winner of the 7 Heavenly Virtues Deck CompetitionBeginners League 3/2011 3rd PlaceC-C-C-Combo Maker Winner!
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg365851#msg365851
« Reply #158 on: July 14, 2011, 10:56:27 am »
Sorry for the huge delay - LA is unfun to test without skips >.<
Only autoskip = DG.

  deck     Liquid Antimatter (Upped)   
  players     Jenkar   
  version    1.283 
  win-rate     33,33%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     35,34%   
  games    300 
  Score/h     365   
  win-loss-(EM)     100-200-(52)   
  Score/h (n)    439   
  time (h:m:s)     11:31:37   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3762   
  min/game     02:18   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  4085   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%

  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   2322
   44
   -197
   -1084
   890
   -21600
   -1459
   -524
   -376
   -1831
   -1358
   521
   173
   221   
   236
   654
   -882
   160
   1687
   964
   1902
   2228
   294
   -2602
   1097
   533
   -665
   1218
   845
   11017
   2912
   1405
   -1084
   4847
   -21600
   -1459
   368
   1799
   -1831
   -1358
   4363
   2517
   3417   
   3435
   4886
   -882
   2542
   8209
   5766
   8631
   10637
   3676
   -2602
   5541
   3967
   126
   6824
   5608
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   5
   4
   2
   
   7 
   
   
   1
   2
   
   
   6
   2
   4
   1
   8
   
   5
   6
   4
   10
   7
   5
   
   7
   4
   1
   5
   4
    1
    13
    10
    12
    5 
    9
    9
    10
    10
    6
    12
    8
    6
    9
    3
    8
    10
    11
   
    2
    1
    1
    10
    6
    3
    4
    13
    3
    5
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     4
     2
     1
     
     5
     
     
     
     
     
     
     2
     2
     1
     1
     2
     
     1
     3
     1
     9
     5
     1
     
     5
     1
     
     3
     3
I feel we need Moar Stats. I had a pretty bad luck, i believe.
The madness is in each of us. Close your eyes, sing, and open your webbed wings to the silent winds.
Beautiful art : http://i.imgur.com/eUhyYCC.png

Offline Essence

  • Legendary Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4340
  • Country: us
  • Reputation Power: 57
  • Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Essence is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.
  • Voice of the Oracle -- Jezzie's Pimp -- Often Gone
  • Awards: 2nd Trials - Master of Water1st Trials - Master of WaterFG Deck-Designer - The OutcastsShard Madness! Competition WinnerEpic 3 Card Design Competition WinnerElder Recruiter
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg366045#msg366045
« Reply #159 on: July 14, 2011, 06:16:18 pm »
Wow.  I had no idea how important skipping was to FGei -- that's crazy.
If something happens and you think it deserves my attention, feel free to PM me. Other than that, I'm probably here if you want to shoot the breeze.

Offline Jenkar

  • Legendary Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4199
  • Country: fr
  • Reputation Power: 58
  • Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.Jenkar is truly a Titan, worthy of respect and acknowledgement.
  • Heart's made of shadows
  • Awards: Slice of Elements 8th Birthday CakeSlice of Elements 7th Birthday CakeChampionship League 2/2013 WinnerSlice of Elements 4th Birthday Cake6th Trials - Master of AirWinner of Revive the Archive 2!Slice of Elements 3rd Birthday CakeBeginners League 1/2012 WinnerWeekly Tournament Winner5th Trials - Master of AirAvatar of Patience - Winner of the 7 Heavenly Virtues Deck CompetitionBeginners League 3/2011 3rd PlaceC-C-C-Combo Maker Winner!
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg366054#msg366054
« Reply #160 on: July 14, 2011, 06:34:45 pm »
*does small operation*
With skips, i get : FGei(cn) = 5173. Prettier.
More stats will help into better defining those skips, and therefore FGei.
Also, the losing games are often longer than they should be, because you're in a mentality "what if i won" in testin', whereas in farming you are "this is a real bad situation. I could win, but the chances are so low it's not worth my time.
This is my problem with ddis study. We'll need an additional study that is in a farming mood to truly apreciate efficiency.
The madness is in each of us. Close your eyes, sing, and open your webbed wings to the silent winds.
Beautiful art : http://i.imgur.com/eUhyYCC.png

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg366073#msg366073
« Reply #161 on: July 14, 2011, 07:25:19 pm »
*does small operation*
With skips, i get : FGei(cn) = 5173. Prettier.
More stats will help into better defining those skips, and therefore FGei.
Also, the losing games are often longer than they should be, because you're in a mentality "what if i won" in testin', whereas in farming you are "this is a real bad situation. I could win, but the chances are so low it's not worth my time.
This is my problem with ddis study. We'll need an additional study that is in a farming mood to truly apreciate efficiency.
Yep.  While carefully crafting this study, Jangoo and I discussed this issue.  Leaving in-game skips to subjective opinions would lead to inaccurate results between testers/decks and this is really the best way to do it in our opinion.  Now get to testing so we can have enough data to pull out skips!  <---aimed at community

Offline gumbeh

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 434
  • Reputation Power: 7
  • gumbeh is a Spark waiting for a buff.
  • Nude to Elements
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg366566#msg366566
« Reply #162 on: July 15, 2011, 04:23:17 pm »
Hey, I think Divine Glory is a similar problem for VVV as it is for Liquid Antimatter - in this case, there's nothing to afla / RoF, therefore no supercondor and no damage. There's been some discussion, so for posterity, clarity, and my own peace of mind, what's the Jangoo-certified, Kirch-approved way to handle this in testing?

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg366586#msg366586
« Reply #163 on: July 15, 2011, 04:47:03 pm »
Hey, I think Divine Glory is a similar problem for VVV as it is for Liquid Antimatter - in this case, there's nothing to afla / RoF, therefore no supercondor and no damage. There's been some discussion, so for posterity, clarity, and my own peace of mind, what's the Jangoo-certified, Kirch-approved way to handle this in testing?
If there is zero chance of winning (as there would be for VVV vs. DG), just autoquit when you see him and record the time.

Offline Onizuka

  • Legendary Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2292
  • Country: us
  • Reputation Power: 0
  • Onizuka hides under a Cloak.
  • Donuts!
  • Awards: Slice of Elements 6th Birthday CakeSlice of Elements 5th Birthday Cake1st Person to Escape the TempleSlice of Elements 4th Birthday CakeChampionship League 2/2012 2nd PlaceWeekly Tournament WinnerSlice of Elements 3rd Birthday CakeWinner of the Harry Potter PvP House Cup - HoH5th Trials - Master of EntropyWeekly Tournament WinnerWeekly Tournament WinnerWeekly Tournament WinnerSlice of Elements 2nd Birthday Cake
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg367652#msg367652
« Reply #164 on: July 18, 2011, 02:31:48 am »
-Lebump-

Man, 100 games in a day takes its toll. And only 100 more to go ~.~


  deck     Flay 'EM   
  players     Onizuka   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     31%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     n.a.   
  games    200 
  Score/h     116   
  win-loss-(EM)     62-138-(5)   
  Score/h (n)    n.a.   
  time (h:m:s)     10:38:15   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  2321   
  min/game     03:11   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  n.a.   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   -1427
   69
   -1082
   -356
   623
   -937
   -508
   916
   -443
   446
   574
   435
   -452
   228   
   -886
   527
   -500
   595
   337
   -232
   1041
   -566
   -1152
   174
   585
   -862
   -351
   -743
   1043
   -1427
   3299
   -1082
   -356
   4032
   -937
   397
   5000
   791
   3290
   3366
   4052
   753
   3240   
   -886
   3117
   -500
   3649
   2612
   1710
   5670
   591
   -1152
   2193
   4266
   -862
   740
   -743
   6470
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   
   1
   
   
   3 
   
   1
   8
   1
   1
   3
   5
   1
   2
   
   5
   
   3
   6
   1
   7
   1
   
   3
   4
   
   1
   
   5
    3
    2
    9
    4
    2 
    4
    10
    1
    7
    1
    2
    6
    7
    4
    6
    4
    9
    1
    6
    4
   
    9
    4
    5
    2
    7
    7
    9
    3
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
     
     
     
     
     3
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
"      
      
You're just as selfish as I am. You're just not as good at it yet.

Offline Jangoo

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 877
  • Reputation Power: 0
  • Jangoo hides under a Cloak.
  • New to You
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg367809#msg367809
« Reply #165 on: July 18, 2011, 11:05:03 am »



Concerning skipping - FYI

Here are the thoughts we had on the skipping issue.


What kind of study is the FG-efficiency study?

    A high performance study geared towards finding the very best deck under optimal conditions?[/list]
    As we know by now, the FGei value can be tipped significantly by seemingly minor circumstances:

    - the performance of your PC
    - whether you skip at the right time or not
    - if you are a superior or average player
    - plain old luck with the RNG (Rainbow does drag the FGei down ... oooh yes)

    In order to find the best performing deck, testers would have to be selected and balanced
    while taking all of these aspects into the strictest possible consideration.
    In fact, you wouldn't even need a bunch of testers or a large sample size because in
    peak performance-studies all you need is ONE top-guy who proves how far the gear can go.
    Using a large array of testers, quickly brings up questions about how certain samples
    are being "polluted" by mediocre conditions.
    Having, say, Essence the deck-creator prove that the Essential-newbie-FG-farmer
    can get an FGei of 4000 is as interesting for the average user as marveling at the
    skills of a professional Ralley-pilot driving a 1960 pick-up truck.

    Interesting for sure, but can he ever relate?


      An average performance study geared towards finding the best decks under regular farming-conditions?[/list]
      Who farms FGs? -> More or less everybody or at least everybody who wants to get electrum.

      Does everybody have a top-PC? Is everybody a seasoned vet? How many people know
      every trick in the book when playing a certain deck and would also quit at the perfect moment?
      How many people pay 100% attention when farming to get the best out of their deck?

      I guess you see where we are going here:

      We decided on designing the study as a kind of broadband-study that will give
      anybody who wants to farm FGs a realistic impression what he can expect from
      certain decks. Of course not every greenhorn is testing the decks but the above-
      mentioned pollutions are so to speak intended since they do happen in everyday
      farming all the time.

      -> A FG-decks purpose is not to win a championship, it is to get many people rich.
      -> A FG-deck is just as good as the performance of its entire user-crowd.



      What can/can't the skipping policy do?

        Purging god-based data / the "skip-god" segment[/list]
        Yes, playing Hermes, EternalPh etc. with mono-aether most likely isn't worth the time.
        When a certain sample-size (at least 500, hopefully 1000 games) is reached, for each
        deck ALL games against gods where a deck couldn't breach a certain FGei-threshold
        will be purged from the data: ALL games will be set to "skip" and the game-time to
        e.g. 5secs for quitting and loading up the next god.

        This is already a giant leap towards a decks suggested optimal performance,
        since with a large sample size the deck-build and it's performance against
        certain gods deck-build will really show. Also, insta-quits are much more efficient
        than those quits you do in turn 10 after realizing you will probably lose.
        This study will yield an accurate farming guide for each deck which is based on
        data that has been gathered by at least trying to make the best of every god.


          Purging single bad games from the "doable god" data-segment[/list]
          This is the tough spot and we really can't do it.

          The occasional "should have gone well but then I got RoFed at the wrong time"-game
          will unfortunately remain in the data as long as the particular gods data hasn't been purged.
          Fortunately, the chances are high that many of those games actually are in the above
          "skip-god" segment already and have indeed been purged already.

          The way, to approach the games against "doable" gods is the "95% sure you can't
          win"-policy which gives some freedom of choice to the more experienced testers.

          Once again, especially if you are playing against a normally doable god (which won't
          get purged), chances are that the time you have spent so far was well worth trying
          and that those extra 30secs you spend actually losing/reaching the 95%-state
          won't have a very large impact on the FGei.

          The only alternative to such a procedure would be to overly careful select the testers
          to have a proven "elite" test the decks, which immediately results in a study-design
          of the "best-optimal-performance"-type.
          Otherwise, you can never be sure if a player is actually good enough to know his skips.
          He may be just a bit too impatient or not favour skips at all ... a lot of variables for
          an aspect that counts large, because:

          -> Actually winning a game is worth a lot of FGei, no matter if it was tough.
          -> Saving those 30secs four times by skipping but therefore missing out on a
          single lucky win in those four games is actually counterproductive.


          We are positive that with

          1. The high chance that semi-skip matches are in the "skip-god" segment anyways
          2. The chance that lost time in the "doable-god" segment is somewhat balanced by lucky wins

          a realistic and yet optimized performance can be shown for each and every deck.


          ----------

          Please comment and suggest for any future improvements.  ;)



          Offline gumbeh

          • Full Member
          • ***
          • Posts: 434
          • Reputation Power: 7
          • gumbeh is a Spark waiting for a buff.
          • Nude to Elements
          Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg368152#msg368152
          « Reply #166 on: July 19, 2011, 02:56:21 am »
          Thanks for the insight into more of the intentions and theory behind this study! It's a relief to know that my data is still wanted even if I occasionally make a mistake. So far, my only egregious mistakes were in a match where I got an EM anyways, but I'm only 36 games in and expect I'll make at least a couple more blunders as I grow more bored.

          Offline Jangoo

          • Sr. Member
          • ****
          • Posts: 877
          • Reputation Power: 0
          • Jangoo hides under a Cloak.
          • New to You
          Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg368174#msg368174
          « Reply #167 on: July 19, 2011, 04:02:58 am »


          Sure Gumbeh, we are glad to have you.

          The above is yet not to be understood as a call for mediocreness ...
          You should still try your very best at any given time.

          It's just that, if you are the blundering type, it's not a biggie if you
          screw up unintentionally. Another person might be just a bit
          slower than peak-performance at thinking what to play next, or
          at moving his finger to click the mouse button, or at realizing he
          could get an EM when not playing that last critter, or at ...

          Well, you get the idea ... In a nutshell:

          Not everybody can be an Antagon.



           

          blarg: