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Offline Polari

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg399736#msg399736
« Reply #348 on: September 26, 2011, 05:22:01 pm »
why do you skip morte and lionheart? the win rate against them is pretty high. this will be interesting maths behind...
Math:

maximize money/time

Conclusions drawn:

More money is good
More time is bad

Winning against Lionheart is slow. Unless you're doing some hardcore electrum farming completely disregarding your score, you obviously won't skip a 100% matchup. But it turns out the deck does well enough in its best matchups that skipping a sure but slow win can be slightly profitable.

Sevs

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411119#msg411119
« Reply #349 on: October 16, 2011, 07:21:26 pm »
 
  deck     Instosis   
  players     Sevs   
  version    1.291 
  win-rate     67%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     67.68%   
  games    200 
  Score/h     1147   
  win-loss-(EM)     134-66-(3)   
  Score/h (n)    1165   
  time (h:m:s)     07:46:55   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  10231   
  min/game     02:20   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  10327   
      Statmasta™realtec                                                               


  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™realtec    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   1800
   326
   -21600
   -21600
   1705
   745
   -21600
   1787
   192
   1592
   1457
   1738
   693
   968   
   409
   1468
   1578
   1893
   1468
   855
   1688
   2096
   -175
   2009
   1747
   -61
   1309
   938
   1135
   16708
   4461
   -21600
   -21600
   12039
   11092
   -21600
   10550
   5895
   11669
   12319
   13355
   7414
   9571   
   4810
   11609
   14490
   13021
   9932
   6712
   12337
   13614
   4123
   15805
   12884
   2740
   8891
   8123
   10045
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   6
   4
   
   
   9 
   6
   
   5
   3
   10
   5
   10
   5
   2
   2
   5
   5
   3
   4
   3
   11
   3
   1
   6
   8
   2
   7
   3
   6
   
    6
   
   
     
    5
   
   
    6
   
    1
   
    4
    1
    3
    1
   
   
    1
    2
    1
   
    4
   
   
    6
    1
    1
    3
   
   
   6
   7
   
   
   7
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
     
     1
     
     
     
     
     

twixy10

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411122#msg411122
« Reply #350 on: October 16, 2011, 07:25:29 pm »
@Sevs

That is crazy! it is so mch better than every other deck!!

Offline Xenocidius

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411356#msg411356
« Reply #351 on: October 17, 2011, 05:52:19 am »
Yep, that's incredible.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.

Offline Calindu

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411455#msg411455
« Reply #352 on: October 17, 2011, 11:46:50 am »
Zomg, we have a new leader.
You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy.
War

Offline TheManuz

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411459#msg411459
« Reply #353 on: October 17, 2011, 11:53:37 am »
I cannot believe it!
*runs to upgrade the missing cards*

kirchj33

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411480#msg411480
« Reply #354 on: October 17, 2011, 12:54:18 pm »
I'm not really sure what to do with new info at this point since all of the old info is mostly invalid now.  Just know that Instotosis is really really good.  I'm kind of sad Jangoo never got a chance to publish skipped data while it was still relevant.

What I will probably do is wait some time for 1.29 to settle in, gather all of the new promising decks along with old tweaked ones and then begin a new study after a bit of down time.

Offline Polari

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411534#msg411534
« Reply #355 on: October 17, 2011, 03:23:36 pm »
I'm not really sure what to do with new info at this point since all of the old info is mostly invalid now.  Just know that Instotosis is really really good.  I'm kind of sad Jangoo never got a chance to publish skipped data while it was still relevant.

What I will probably do is wait some time for 1.29 to settle in, gather all of the new promising decks along with old tweaked ones and then begin a new study after a bit of down time.
Move the decks with nerfed cards to some archive (like in one of the reserved posts inside a spoiler tag) and keep going as usual? All un- or partially upped decks other than the lance deck are unaffected as are upped LA, Voodoo decks and Instosis as the new champion. To me that sounds like enough decks to form a solid baseline. The shard decks that are still worth playing can be reintroduced as we get updated results for them.

Offline Djhopper :)

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411538#msg411538
« Reply #356 on: October 17, 2011, 03:30:04 pm »
Just as I come up with a decent deck the update that changes everything comes along :(

Still... NICE DECK SEVS!

Offline Jangoo

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411712#msg411712
« Reply #357 on: October 18, 2011, 12:45:45 am »
Allright guys. First of all: I am terribly sorry to have left you hanging here for three weeks.
I simply couldn't get my butt up to get it done when I had some time on my hands ... my apologies!

Nevertheless, it's done when it's done so I added the top/most played 6 decks with:

SKIP-stats (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,25609.msg349340.html#msg349340)

Here is the procedure I ended up using:

    Gods that are below a certain FGei(c)-threshold are designated as skip-godsThe threshold is determined for
each god individually and depends on the number
of games played against that god (see twixys suggestion)[/list]        -> the more games played, the tighter the threshold
        -> the less games played, the more slack a god gets to "stay in"

    The threshold is relative to the FGei(cn) of the deck against all gods (as in kirchj33s posts)
        -> e.g. "This gods FGei(c) is more than 20% below the FG(cn)"

    Thresholds:

    # of games against a particular god -> individual threshold for this god

    15+  ->  20% below = skip
    10+  ->  30% below = skip
    5+    ->  40% below = skip
    <5    ->  50% below = skip
        -> e.g. if the decks FGei(cn) was 5210 before implementing skips, a god against whom
         15 or more games have been played would have to beat an FGei(c) of 4168, a god with
         10 or more games an FGei(c) of 3647 etc.

    If designated a skip-god, all of the gods games are set to "skip" All of the gods times for each game are set to
1 second (see 10mens input)[/list]
    Skip-gods that didn't make the threshold but made the next, theoretical, threshold in line are
    marked yellow in the god-by-god (but they are still skip-gods of course)Skip-gods that didn't even make the next threshold in line are marked in red in the god by god
-> This is to somehow indicate the level of inefficiency of each skip-god. There are gods who are just way not
         worth your time and nobody should ever play them with this deck (red) and there are those that just barely fell
         short of making the playable list by a few percent (yellow). E.g., if you consider 3647-4168 electrum/h "good enough"
         in a deck that runs in 5210 electrum on average against all gods, then you should go ahead and play the yellow gods ...


Once again, this is not the most aggressive method of simulating the skips as 10mens "progressive" way to
boost the Fast-Draw-Ghostal-deck has shown:
It would be possible to get even higher FGeis by taking a threshold of 0% below FGei(cn), taking out all the
respective gods and then taking out another set of gods in a second, third, fourth ... round, effectively ending
up with only the very most lucrative gods as being "worth your time".
Then again there is still quite a bit of uncertainty that goes along with samples our size: Some 15 games
against a god are good enough to make a call, but they are not really good enough to make a call that draws
the line along a puny couple hundred electrum/h, especially not when considering what a difference there has been
between the players, their overall performance and their performance against specific gods with the very same deck ...

Concluding, the above procedure more or less gives each god a chance to still run in his share and follows the credo
"a god is worth playing until it's pretty damn sure he obviously isn't" ;)
The top six decks now each have a skip-suggestion for 10-15 gods out of 29 which is, I believe, pretty radical after all.




Offline Xenocidius

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411714#msg411714
« Reply #358 on: October 18, 2011, 01:01:20 am »
Wow, Instosis is still way higher than any of the old decks even without skips ... now imagine it with skips ... :O
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.

Offline Jangoo

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg411720#msg411720
« Reply #359 on: October 18, 2011, 01:14:06 am »
I'm not really sure what to do with new info at this point since all of the old info is mostly invalid now.  Just know that Instotosis is really really good.  I'm kind of sad Jangoo never got a chance to publish skipped data while it was still relevant.
Hmyeah ... kinda sad too. On the other hand, implemeting the skips three weeks earlier would have given us: Three weeks.  :))

The SoG-nerf is more than just unfortunate for this studys results, it's simply the nerf of more
or less any classic, viable FG-deck and loads of other decks as well.
I am guessing it is already commonly accepted that a 3-heal/cost 5 SoG really really sucks?


All un- or partially upped decks other than the lance deck are unaffected as are upped LA, Voodoo decks and Instosis as the new champion. To me that sounds like enough decks to form a solid baseline. The shard decks that are still worth playing can be reintroduced as we get updated results for them.
As far as I can see that would be the Rol/Hope variations ... without the shards.  :P
CCYB might be able to compensate a bit by just switching a couple shards over to sanctuaries.


Wow, Instosis is still way higher than any of the old decks even without skips ... now imagine it with skips ... :O
Well ... three gods in fact already have their skips. Then it's the deck-creator himself who has played those
games and I am guessing he didn't "play out till 95% sure to quit" most of those actually hopeless matches as we have done here.
Lastly, 200 games still imply an open ending ... in either direction.
Just give a kirch a go at the deck and he will surely put the nail in that coffin.  :P

Naa but seriously, the deck is terror ... living proof that the age of heavy control FG-decks is over.

 

blarg: