Random Effects

[joebob777]

if we cant quantify the different outcomes then we at least need to be able to quantify something to make up for it, and we might need to do both for some ridiculous cases

[doublecross]

Well, the numerical version that we were looking for about 3 posts back would be a good substitute.

[joebob777]

agreed, so the randomness/chance part of determining a cards cost has been made, good job guys

[doublecross]

I would call this a good success.

+ Karma for both of you for being willing to work with me.

[joebob777]

same for you

[doublecross]

Cheers, mate.


Good work everyone.

[OldTrees]

This was a helpful exercise.
+1 karma each.

Be warned. You are both on my list for people to draft into design theory discussions. Especially you doublecross. Too few people think about what I say instead of taking it for granted. Even fewer argue back with good reasons. You are on a short list with Uppercut (when he is not silenced)

[ZephyrPhantom]

Yay! New CI&A organization founded! I'll try to be as unbiased as I can.

Well, we need a formula. I've done several calculations based on other formulas and cards, as shown below.

Chance Bonus = Number of Chances +Abilities in question
Note :  = Other quanta, While  = different quantas combined
Wish is the example card.
Unupped
Chances: 5, -1
Abilities in question : Holy Flash Player-Only (0), Weaker Precog (0.5  ) ,Heal w/ purify counter ( 1    ) , crusader (5  ) , Miracle ( 15  )
Percent Modifiers result in the following values:
0
.1
0.15
.5
0.75
____
1.5  -> Rounds to 2.
Final Value: 1 

Upped:
Chances 6, -1
Abilities in question: Holy Flash Player-Only (0), Weaker Precog (0.5  ) ,Heal w/ purify counter ( 2    ) , crusader (5  ) , Miracle ( 12  ) , Nymph (7  )
Percent Modifiers result in the following values:
0
.1
.4
.5
.35
.6
____
1.95 -> Rounds to 2
Final Value : 1 
Card calculation
Spell
Unupped
Effect - Precalculated Chance Effect = +1
Bonuses : +2 as a spell.
Final Cost : 3 
Upped
Effect - Precalculated Chance Effect = +1
Bonuses : +2 as a spell, but -1 as an upgrade. Final Bonus = +1
Final Cost : 2 
I know the discussion may be over, but we should have something for reference the next time this happens.

[joebob777]

earlier in wish i determined that the average cost was 5|4, then using the formula, we determined that there was a  -1 point because it occasionally decreased in value, then we determined that there were 4 categories, which is borderline -0/-1 so the cost should either be 3|2 or 4|3, your choice

[doublecross]

Of course, we haven't perfected the formula yet.


Number of categories is a good approximation, but the deduction ultimately should be based on how far below maximum utility the card is likely to be at any given time.

For instance, causing poison is an early effect, healing a certain percentage of health is a late effect. Something that could do one or the other will be at diminished utility at all times, because at least one effect with be less useful then when at full utility.


For wish, one such pairing is creature summoning v. miracle.
One is more useful early, one is more useful later.

[karis]

i'm know it's not look fit 'ramdom effects card cost' topic at all.  but can i'm say something...

entropy have a title of randomness.   but all random thing can't be only entropy.....

[joebob777]

i agree not all random things should be entropy, but we are talking about cards like Wish|Wish that have random things that might occur
Wish|Wish: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,20492.0.html