AETHER - Round #11

[Jen-i]

Round #7 3 Wins / 2 Losses / 1 Bye

0-3 Loss vs

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4su 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 590 590 590 590 590 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 625 625 625 625 63a 63a 7dm 7dm 7t9 8pm

3-1 Win vs

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4su 61o 61o 61o 61o 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61u 61u 61u 61u 622 622 625 625 625 625 625 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 808 81q 81q 8pu

3-0 Win vs

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52p 52r 52r 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 713 713 713 713 71b 71b 8pk

3-0 Win vs

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5lk 5lk 5lk 5lk 5ls 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61u 61u 622 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jq 7jq 7jq 8pu

2-3 Loss vs

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 52q 590 590 590 590 590 590 5ia 5ia 5og 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61t 61t 61t 625 625 625 625 625 63a 63a 7dm 7dm 80g 8pm

Spoiler for Possible Salvages:

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4sp 5f6 5f6 5f6 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5i4 5io 5io 5io 5io 5io 5io 5jm 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7i6 8po

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4so 4so 5f0 5f0 5f4 5f4 5f4 5f4 5f4 5f4 5f6 5f6 5f7 5fc 5fc 5fc 5gi 5gi 7dg 7dg 7dg 7di 7di 7ds 7ds 7ds 7f2 7f2 7f2 7f2 8po

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5li 5li 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 5mq 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61r 61r 61r 61r 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7ju 7ju 7ju 7ju 7ju 8pu

[AnnaMall]

End round 7 discussion

Its been 7 rounds already, I had a look at all their decks since R1. They trust the decks they vaulted to death. Not once they tried something custom/new, all they do is tweak a little their premade decks. Also every round they get to salvage bits and pieces of aether so it is safe to assume they got all their initial vault. The 223 cards adds too the above statement.
1)grabbow-safe to assume they got a replacement and stuff to switch between lightning/PU modes
2)mono- dims/recluse/psion/lobo/lightning modes
3)Rol/hope
4)pestal-vamptal
5)fractix
6)bonebolt w/ reclusetal
7)dimsancstall - the first to ditch- probably left it already but got chances of salvaging it back

Those add up to 210-220 and I am pretty confident none is heavily gimped.

[Jen-i]

Yeah I looked at their decks as well - they keep running pretty much the same decks each round - with small mods to them - and keep having the opportunity to salvage quality aether support cards so its unlikely any of they decks they still have are defective at all.

1)Grabbow - they ran two of these last round and both lost - however they could have salvaged some cards for one last round and could recover 12 from their losers this round, and although they could have 6 salvaged from beating a grabbow last round - I think it highly unlikely that they've got 2 at this point but all most certain that they still have one playable.

2)Vamptal is highly likely dead - although pestal should be alive - its possible but highly unlikely they saved vampires instead of fractal when vamptal lost in round #5 - and they've had the opportunity to salvage 2 vampires since then. Pestal will be alive and well - and still a danger to us.

The other decks that Mall's listed are pretty much what I see them having available to play against us.

[AnnaMall]

ROUND 8 4 Wins / 1 Loss

(Aether Str) Wizardcat 3 - (Entropy SB) Odii Odsen 0

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 590 590 590 590 590 5ia 5ia 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 63a 63a 71a 77g 7dm 7n0 80g 80g 8pm

(Air Gen) kev 3 - 0 (Aether Qm) vagman13

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5um 5um 5um 5um 5um 5um 5up 5up 5ut 5ut 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 7ta 7ta 7td 8pt

(Aether Lt.) hainkarga 3 - 1 (Entropy Str) Afdarenty

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

(Aether SB) Avenger 3 - 0 (Earth Gen) MrPaper

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61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 622 622 622 622 624 625 625 625 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80l 80l 80l 8pu

(Aether Gen) deuce22 3 - 0 (Time Gen) PlayerOa

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4su 4su 4su 4su 4su 5la 5li 5lk 5lk 5lk 5lk 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 622 622 624 63a 63a 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 808 808 81q 8pu

Spoiler for possible salvage:

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4vh 4vh 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vl 4vl 4vl 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 55t 55t 590 590 590 590 590 590 5ia 5og 5og 5v1 5v1 61q 61q 7dm 7dm 7dm 8pm

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58o 58o 58o 594 594 594 594 594 594 595 595 595 5aa 5oh 5oh 5oh 5oo 5oo 5oo 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77a 77b 77b 78q 8pr

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4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 52g 52o 52o 52q 52q 52q 52r 52r 52r 52r 542 718 718 718 718 8pk

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52q 52q 58q 58q 58s 58s 5f6 5f6 5f6 5fc 5fc 5ro 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 7qc 7ri 7ri 7ri 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 8pu

End round 8 discussion

I think I start to understand the thought process of deuce. They dont care to use salvage that is not in-element or bow stuff. They got their starting vault and rate their chances in every match. They got very versatile decks and if they dont like the odds in a match they send something that can be saved easily or send something that did its job so far and it is not needed in the developing meta.
Saved easy I mean decks that have 3-4 fractals and a core form out of element cards e.g. devtal, fractix. They will grab 3 fractals back and lose about 12 Q sources.
Decks not needed strike me as fractix (cant keep up with bows can be played by 3/6 of the team). Maybe more will come after a proper round8 analyses.

Also they seem to think highly of our sancstall. Feels it is the only deck that makes them keep that devtall

Correct me or add your thoughts as these are preliminary ideas that stil formulate...slowly

[kev]

Correct me or add your thoughts as these are preliminary ideas that stil formulate...slowly

+1 

Up to this point Aether hasn't really introduced new decks as War has progressed; it's been variants of their original deck builds.  This is for a few reasons:
1) they believe these are the best decks available to them (evidence: they keep winning), and
2) they have been able to fill up their losers because a) there haven't been many losers, and b) soooo much in-element salvage, and
3) it's hard to come up with new decks each round if you're already discussing/testing/etc 5-6 decks.

But notice that a high winrate is a part of each of those.  As their losses start to accumulate and they field fewer decks, they may start to venture outside the tried-and-true.  Especially if they are trying to counter a specific deck.  So while I agree with everything you wrote, past performance is not a guarantee of the future.

[Jen-i]

Aether has added grabbow decks when the salvage has been available - but other than that have not really altered their list of decks - hopefully this will allow us to predict them a little better and beat them into submission next round

My assumptions are that they have the following decks available next round:

1) Grabbow - I'd say 80% likely they've got 2 of them again as they had the opportunity to salvage another one this round
2) Psiontal - they played and won with 2 of them this round (its possible they could play a third [I haven't looked into the availability of Psion to them])
3) RoL/Hope - it keeps winning, I've got no idea why time didn't send their Discobow at them this round
4) BoneBolt/Reclusetal - while we haven't seen this deck with poisons in a few rounds they had the opportunity to salvage more again this time
5) Fractrix - they probably still have this in the vault
6) Dim Stall - they continue to have the opportunity to salvage Dim Shields so they could run a stall based on them.

[Jen-i]

Round #9 3 Wins / 3 Losses

1-3 Loss vs

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58o 593 593 593 594 594 594 594 594 594 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61u 61u 61u 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 77a 77a 81q 8pm

1-3 Loss vs

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4su 52g 52p 542 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 622 622 622 624 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 713 713 713 71b 71b 71b 71b 81q 81q 8pk

0-3 Loss vs

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 52q 55q 55q 590 590 590 590 590 590 5og 5v1 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61r 61r 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 63a 63a 7dm 80g 80g 8pm

3-2 Win vs

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61u 61u 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

3-2 Win vs

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

3-0 Win vs

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4su 4su 4su 4su 5la 5li 5lk 5lk 5lk 5lk 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 622 622 624 63a 63a 63a 63a 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 808 8pu

Spoiler for Possbile Salvage:

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5lm 5lm 5lm 5oc 5oc 5oc 5og 5og 5og 5oh 5oh 5oh 5oh 5oi 5oi 5on 5on 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 7k2 7k2 7k2 7k6 7k6 7k6 7n5 7n5 7n5 8pq

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vl 4vl 4vl 4vp 4vp 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 55q 590 5v1 61q 6u1 6u1 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 7dm 7dm 8pm

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593 593 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rl 5rl 5rl 5ro 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5s4 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 5t2 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 8pm

Initial Assumptions
Remaining Decks:
Psiontal - Psiontal - RoL/Hope - Grabbow - Fractrix - Some form of Dim Stall

[AnnaMall]

End round 9 discussion
Aether starts round 10 with 164 cards. 91 are cards from winning decks, 25 saved from losing decks and 18 salvages. That adds up to 134/164 reasonably assumed/known cards.
They won with 3 decks and have to run 4 this round so some Q conversions are in order.
The rest of the 30 cards:12 cards for fractix (6 phoenix 2bolts 4 defl), 6 PU

They can build:
1)grabbow (if they REALLY want it they can salvage to get a new one this round, but I believe they got one hidden)
2)psiontal
3)psiontal
4)RoL/hope
5)fractix
6)dim/sancstall <---scary

They vault seems much stronger than I expected after a 3/3 round. My main conserns are the psiontals and sancstall

[Jen-i]

Round #10 3 Wins / 1 Loss

3-0 Win vs

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4su 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61r 61r 61r 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61u 61u 61u 622 622 622 625 625 625 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80l 80l 80l 8pu

1-3 Loss vs

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61u 61u 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80e 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

3-0 Win vs

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4su 4su 5li 5lk 5lk 5lk 5lk 5ls 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 8pu

3-0 Win vs

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4su 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61r 61r 63a 63a 63a 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 7dm 7dm 80g 8pm

Spoiler for Possible Salvage:

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4vf 4vl 4vl 4vl 5lm 5lm 5oc 5oc 5of 5of 5oj 5oj 5oj 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 6tv 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 77j 77j 77j 8pj

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4vh 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5ru 5s4 6u5 6u5 6u5 77j 77j 7q5 7qc 7qc 7qc 7th 7th 8pj

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4vc 4vc 4vc 4vc 4vc 4vc 4vc 4vh 4vh 4vh 4vh 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 5up 5up 5up 5v1 6tv 6tv 6tv 6tv 6u9 6u9 7tb 7tb 7th 7th 8pt

Conclusions
Awaiting Final Match

[AnnaMall]

End round 10 discussion

They start R11 with 153 cards. 96 cards shown, 18 salvages and 3 saved makes for 117/153 known/assumed. They have Q for 3 decks and they field 2 next round. There are 36 cards unaccounted for: 10 fire cards for fractix(6 phoenix,defl,firebolts), 6 cards from our sancstal leaves a lot of room for surprises.
Even vs vaults they know well they dont attempt hard counters, they go for they standard issued stuff. I expect this is about to change. Seems from the one recluse in bow that they are short in PUs (only 5)

Available decks:
1)psiontal maybe they can still have 2 of those
2)RoLHope
3)grabbow
4)fractix
5)discoEQ bow
6)dimsancstall if they salvaged correct last round

[kev]

Round #11 1 Win / 1 Loss

3-2 Win vs

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 808 808 80g 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 81q 8pu

1-3 Loss vs

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61r 61r 61r 61r 61r 61r 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 622 622 625 625 625 625 625 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 80g 80g 80g 8pu

Spoiler for Possible Salvage:

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4vc 4vf 4vn 4vn 5oc 5oc 5oc 5of 5ol 5on 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5up 625 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u7 7dm 7mu 7mu 7mu 8pj