Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[Linkcat]

Shock, congrats on reaching a streak of 3 useful posts in a row. Only a few more and you can finally get away from that pesky F grade.

kdz's readslist is actually good and what I would expect from his level of engagement at this point.

Rob's still isn't great, expecially the kaempfer and shock vv reads.

Annele not voting for her strongest scumread is kind of sus, then kaempfer calls her out and she switches, not sure how I feel about this.

Kaempfer's scumreads still bad.

moe, I agree that my previous shitposts weren't great. Thanks for recognizing a good one, though.

And finally, some votes on me. I applaud your enthusiasm, but it's not going through.

[Linkcat]

Spoiler for Hidden:

Shock... dear shock:

1. You describe voting me for infolynch (or what amounts to an infolynch -- you want to get your hands on some kind of juicy info that comes from me flipping either alignment?? Need to lynch SCUM not for info - lynching a scum will give lots of juicy info AND helps town win-con. You want that right? (sometimes tough to be sure with how you post...) There has to be some source somebody knows about that goes into good detail about why/how infolynch is not a good idea. (Hint: check out Link's early game posts for a MafiaUniverse link.)

2. The extension seems quite likely the last 1-2 hours of the Day phase... you are underestimating how much "time" that is for a phase to complete... it seem rather presumptious to think that scum had to be scrambling and since we don't see much of that in thread from timpa you conclude he is likely town. I think Sub was actually in more danger than timpa at the time you're referring to but you don't give Sub the same "probably town because nobody was scrambling to save him" treatment. Can you explain some why? I am guessing you just do not have a large pool of EOD experience from which to have seen real EOD scrambles - that is, we have different definitions of what you're using to read as towny. Yay / nay?

3. What do you  mean it is hard to believe a scum could be / coudl have been / could still be on the chopping block on Day 1? It isn't that uncommon of a result, honestly. I chalk this up to your probably being a bit new to playing mafia, in the grand sense of things.

4. No need to worry or fret about what to do if I flip red. WIFOM, of course, for you, but yeah...

5. About your reads... a) Do you have more to your town-read on timpa than "he was a wagon candidate near fake-EOD1"? b) What are you basing your highest level of suspicion read of kdz on at this point? so far he has mostly AFK'd (self-admittedly even) and his reads post which is easily his most substantive brief as it is didn't drop until AFTER you have him a top suspicious read of yours - I would like to read some about why/how from your perspective.

My take -- I don't want to keep going to this well forever, but as I read shock's post I just don't find it feasible he would do that as scum. Yes, it seems like how regular-shock I know a little bit from the game/forum might approach mafia games, and aligns with how others say he has done as town before and is implying that I do not expect him capable of acting quite this (what word to use? ... ...) blustery and grandiose if he had a team to discuss with and a team he _might_ just might listen to about trying to be less "on the radar". It is quite possible I am tragically underestimating shock... time will tell.

I find a lot in the post to disagree with or counter but in the most shock way possible, I'm keeping the town-read on him through it.

rob77dp (3) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon
Submachine (2) - Calindu, rob77dp
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, Annele, DoubleCapitals
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks


I must say I'm curious how rob will flip. We have plenty of interactions of players with him and I am very intrigued by how he went from the vote leader with many non-voters suspecting him to almost no one voting him. Additionally, the more I try to picture scenarios where andretimpa is mafia with different combinations of other mafia members, the more I think he is a guaranteed town. He was extremely close to being lynched, and even voted on Masterwalks who had 0 votes at the time instead of joining the submachine train to even the vote and keep himself alive. Additionally, the extension timer which also would have saved andretimpa was not voted on very quickly and the initial people who voted for an extension comprised mostly of the players who wanted to lynch andretimpa, which doesn't add up to him being the mafia.


I also have a hard time believing that town is good enough or that mafia is bad enough to come so close to losing any member on day 1. Additionally, to entertain TorB's idea that andre, kaempf, and rob are all mafia, it's almost unfathomable to me that 3/4 mafia would be leading votes for lynch on day 1. This could be a possibility if the mafia were voting each other to make it harder to track down all of them should one of them get lynched, yet we see none of these 3 voting on each other and we don't even see any of these 3 voting on the same player. Yet again, another piece of evidence that doesn't add up to the theory. I also have a hard time believing that TorB would be mafia with 3 other members to help guide his play and still present this theory. The most likely outcome of day 1 is a bunch of town accusing each other because of lack of info while the mafia gets to pick and choose where they enter and exit conversation.


Another interesting topic is Linkcat. He was the first to vote for rob and the first to vote for andre. Now that doesn't mean much, but the interactions with rob have been quite interesting, and will need to be explored further if rob flips mafia. Additionally, he has definitely placed himself in a position to control the flow of conversation and kaempfer even pointed this out earlier and called him out as being suspicious, to which he responded in a way that was very inadequate for me personally. Linkcat has also disregarded all my posts as irrelevant. He asks for scum reads and votes, yet when I offer that him, rob, and MW would be the most useful lynch targets for revealing things, this isn't even brought up. If someone else were to say this I can almost guarantee there would be several responses discussing this. Then when I make a post more in line with "proper play and meaningful discussion" and point out a noteworthy action by Annele this is seemingly rewarded as if I should explore this theory more and maybe tunnel on her. The funny thing is, Annele switching votes and making the comments she made is what makes me the most certain that she is town. I'm sure Linkcat will have some response as he always does as to how my arguments are either bad or irrelevant, but this section is mostly for myself, kaempf, and serprex as I believe they will actually listen to me and think about the idea of Linkcat being one of the major mafia suspects right now.



Now I'm going to give a list so everyone has something to work off when trying to read me, because I want people to listen to me when I say that we should figure out votes now and not at the deadline. Town is too prone to make mistakes and be at the mercy of mafia if we wait too long to vote. I wasn't going to vote this phase, but now that it has been extended and with everyone still keen on making a lynch, it's too risky to let this lynch go badly.



Likely town:

serprex
moehrpi
kaempfer13
andretimpa
TheonlyrealBeef
Annele


Unsure, need more time to consider:


Submachine
iancudorinmarian
Ge0metry v1.2
DoubleCapitals


Suspicious:


Linkcat
rob77dp
MasterWalks
Calindu
killsdazombies

I agree with points 2 and 3, disagree with your overall take. Shock, at that point there was still a lot of room to switch lynches, mostly depending on whether I decided to push through the andre lynch or not. EoD gets crazy here.

[Linkcat]

rob77dp (3) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon
Submachine (1) - Calindu
andretimpa (2) - Linkcat, rob77dp
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - Annele

Fixed the vote count, can't really contribute more at the moment as I have a deadline for a project tomorrow. I still read everything, so if anyone needs anything specific from me, just let me know.

Sub isn't happening, give me your top 3 scumreads.

[serprex]

PS rob, I wasn't telling Ge0 to match my reads, I was telling him to move on from tunnelling on you & get on with giving us his take on the remaining players

Which he hasn't done btw, to my dismay

[Ge0metry v1.2]

PS rob, I wasn't telling Ge0 to match my reads, I was telling him to move on from tunnelling on you & get on with giving us his take on the remaining players

Which he hasn't done btw, to my dismay

I made an attempt (albeit, a weak one) last night to probe kaemp on his lack of vote which at the time of me falling asleep, he had not responded. Just woke up, saw that he has voted. Great.

I am on phone and have work soon, but here is a quick readslist with minimal notes. Largely composed of gut feel and sheeping logic from others that made sense to me. I didn't/don't feel confident enough to go too in depth on anything regardless.

vv
serp
moe

v
torb
kdz - largely gut feel

n+
link
shock - really liked his posts after he stopped using spoilers, particularly liked his note about certain lynches not being useful regardless of how they flip

sub+- (n)
sub - gets his own catagory because who spends 6+ hours writing for mafia

n - everyone in this group hard to read for me
ian
mw
cal
dc

n-
rob - focusing a little too hard on my reads on him imo, yes im aware i was focused on his read of me as well, i will do my best not to tunnel on him
kaemp - overly defensive as mentioned by others, also only person who's readlist i did not like at all
andre - posts weren't convincing imo but whoever mentioned he didn't try too hard to defend himself or start another train i think is quite interesting

w
annele - gut feel, some sus pointed out by link i think


rob77dp (2) - serprex, shockcannon
Submachine (1) - Calindu
andretimpa (2) - Linkcat, rob77dp
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (2) - Annele, kaempfer13
Annele (1) - Ge0metry v1.2

I will be back at least once before deadline, vote is not set in stone

[rob77dp]

I'll be on for EOD in a few hours... keeping up with posts as they filter in via phone. Huzzah.

Until then, several posts I want to get to posting more about later, but right now I want to address something from Ge0 here and he pinged me about indicating shock saying it too. I did not recall it being as blatant in shock's post but I went and looked. Wtf are people doing stating things like:

-snip-

n+
link
shock - really liked his posts after he stopped using spoilers, particularly liked his note about certain lynches not being useful regardless of how they flip

-snip-

And

-snip-

rob - I mean, I think he's mafia. So no issues here. Even if he flips town that vastly improves all our other reads since he's received several votes already and has interacted heavily with almost everyone. Rob should be really be the #1 contender for day 1 lynch. Like imagine lynching andre. If he's mafia great, but if he's not we don't gain a whole lot. Even if rob is town I still think we gain quite a bit.

-snip-

Town perspective should NEVER, I repeat never, be interested in thinking a town flip on a lynch is a good thing. I am struggling to even find a type of setup or specialty role in any game I've done where town gains by lynching town. This smacks of a scum push - or bad town push/logic. There just is not room for wanting to be OK with lynching town if you're town and honestly trying to win the game.

"gain quite a bit" - no, you don't. flipping town from a lynch, the town lost. plain, simple.

"if he's mafia, great... but..." - no, flipping a mafia from a lynch is a win for town. plain, simple.

"if ... flips town... improves our reads..." - just get out, flipping town is BAD. FOR. TOWN.

"lynches not ... useful no matter how they flip" - this cannot (or at worst should not) be the thought process if you're town... if a lynch flips red, IT. IS. GOOD. FOR. TOWN. plain, simple.

I'll be back for a little less chastising posting later... but good grief people, let's seriously all get on at least a level 1 plane for playing and solving this game.

Infolynch = bad idea.
Policy lynch = bad idea.
Grudge lynch = bad idea.
Red / scum lynch = very good.
Green / town lynch = very bad.
Gut / feel reads are a thing.

/rant

[rob77dp]

Quick 'parting shot' for a bit, if you will, is that I find it a bit odd Link has taken only a few chances here and there to ping some "bad play" aspects -- but it feels really odd to me not seeing him posting much yet about some of the rant aspects/notes I just posted. (But he is posting a few things in that vein... just not ones I know he agrees with me before about) Wha?

[shockcannon]

You know what's really not useful? You killing Coffee and him flipping town.

[shockcannon]

@serprex @Annele @kaempfer13

The 4 of us need to align our votes. I think our views align decently at this point in time and I don't think 3 votes will be enough to win the lynch with possibly last minute mafia tampering. It really REALLY bothers me that every time rob gets new votes, something happens that causes the old voters to switch off rob. He has had the most number of different players voting for him and yet his vote count has never gone above 3.

Having said this, I'm also willing to vote up Linkcat if you all feel that's a stronger target. We really need to coordinate though. I'm not ruling out the possibility that Annele and kaempfer are mafia, and how they respond to this could change my views. Kaempf coming out to vote on Linkcat all of sudden and Annele being so easily swayed by Linkcat to switch her vote off rob multiple times now are both red flags to me. You two are still high up on my town read list though so I'm willing to trust this group of 4 to make a move today and thwart any mafia plans.


Adjustments to read list:

Submachine --> seems more town now due to his last post

kdz --> even more suspicious after last post. This to me is the lay low mafia member who uses inexperience and lack of participation as a cover similar to how Ginyu did a couple mafias ago.

MW - more suspicious. Just from reading other's lists about him and the lack of responses after I suggested multiple times that he is mafia is a red flag for me.

[Linkcat]

If you see a bug repeatedly smashing it's face into a light, do you call out to it and say, "Hey buddy, it's just a light, there's nothing there"? That's how I feel about shock. I point out some of the others when I see it, but I don't bother every time because I know you or kaempfer or someone will do it for me.

[Linkcat]

You know what's really not useful? You killing Coffee and him flipping town.

I would like to present to the village a set of facts.

1. Mafia wants to kill town, town wants to kill mafia.
2. Mafia killed w3, a town.
3. Rob killed Coffee, a town.

Spoiler for Hidden:

[serprex]

Rob's still misrepresenting things. Town can't know the result of a flip beforehand. So you given the choice between two scummy targets, you pick the most informative

We're voting off rob. I'm not changing my vote. If rob is n- (or even n) for you, vote with me