Elements Mafia 61 - by Linkcat

[Espithel]

I am just neutralized. People have considered me town-leaning, for whatever reason they think.

I hardly care. I say what I think.

Posting the end of THE MUSICAL in a moment.

[Espithel]

Right.
WHY GINO AND JCJ CAN GO DIE IN A FIRE: THE MUSICAL, PART TWO: PRAISE THE SUN

Spoiler for Of all the things to write a musical about:

This one's a weird one.

For now, I'd like to you assume that Gino is mafia. I'm now going to explain all of Gino's actions and tell you why fun stuff is going to happen.

Now, the number one thing you don't want to do when you're a town is to treat a mafia as confirmed town. Doing so will pretty much automatically cost you the game. The mafia are aware of this. You sheeples should be aware of it too. Are you? Good. Good boy. Here's your treat.
*Petpet*

Right. Gino had the ability to swap roles with people. This is a powerful "confirmation" tool. Confirmation in quotes because all it confirms is role, not faction. However:

My role is now sera, I claimed the only role that swapped a players role. Solaris is welcome to jump on me but when he does and i flip as sera and fippe finally claims to be ginyu, i would love to see solaris bleed out uta

Here we see Gino conflating role and faction.

I confirm Fippe through the use of my ability. Fippe if you post the name of the role i will post the name of the role i recieved in return

Here we see Gino doing it again, trying to cosy up to So-Close-To-Being-Confirmed-That-He-Deserves-1000-Mafia-Points-If-He-Isn't-Fippe.

Now, assume for a moment that Gino is mafia.

What's Gino is trading here, assuming it works, is the inability to kill a confirmed civilian (You would have to fake the moon landing to make a viable case for Fippe being mafia by this point) to get a mafia treated like a confirmed civilian, AND to make the confirmed civ like you. Assuming this plan works, that'd end the game right there and then. The risk is simply so much more worth the downside.

And why would it fail? We've been extremely trusting of claims lately.

On top of this, whilst Gino is guut, he's a sheeple. I don't think a sheeple is capable of pulling this off alone. That's the reason why I want Gino lopped; The sheer risk of what he's done if he's mafia, coupled with him being most likely unable to know this if he wasn't mafia.
It could be a fluke, one supposes. But JCJ does raise a somewhat sailent point:

Gino, why would you use this on someone already confirmed? It makes no sense, surely you would use it to swap with someone unconfirmed to stand a chance of finsing a mafia, or confirming a new town?

Fluke, or Conspiracy?

Your choice. I simply believe the risk is too high and we'll gain a ton of information if Gino dies.

PS: I'd like some more meat to your claim, Hyro. It's far too far-fetched for me to take seriously right now.
I believe Solaris is at least neutral simply because he's acting the way I would expect him to.

... This musical was less epic than I thought it'd be. Oh well.

[andretimpa]

WHY GINO AND JCJ CAN GO DIE IN A FIRE: THE MUSICAL, PART TWO: PRAISE THE SUN

* snip *

Okay, those are some great points. Now I'm on the fence about voting on Hyro or putting the vote back in godis 

[Espithel]

Final note: The two parts are entirely unrelated to each other

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Lol, call me out with questionable scumtells, then use my own point about how strange gino's move is against gino.

K. Using my own logic, not yours, i'm still happy to lynch gino.

[Hyroen]

More meat on my claim? I'd love to.

Exact wording of PM? no can do, as per Linkcat's illuminating post. My main claim this round is that Sol is town. Unfortunately, I do see how this could sound like Mafia defending Mafia. Which is why I offered to be lynched instead if there is doubt. This I'll get back to in a bit.

Yes my claim is odd, but so have many of the abilities. According to UTA, his ability allows him to stab someone 3 times and then they go bye bye. I would not at all be surprised if this were an ability, because instakill would simply be too strong. So I'm guessing the 3 use rule is a way to balance it. Similarly, though I haven't played Mafia (the forum game) in a while I do imagine that there is some sort of investigatory role. Unfortunately, this role would seem to require at least a 3day use (as no strong claims have been made earlier) and the user likely can't see the results. So naturally, this puts me in a difficult situation, because I can't say it was me who used the ability, and I have to put my blind faith in this voice that tells me that Sol is town. Oh, and being unable to quote what I got makes it even harder to believe me.

Which brings me back to my previous point. If I were Mafia, trying to defend Sol, another Mafia, then it would be ludicrous to ask everyone to lynch me instead of Sol. In this case, town has the option of lynching Mafia or Mafia so it is win, win.

However, I ask that because I know that people may doubt me, and that's perfectly fair. But whether I get lynched or Sol does, the truth will come out and at least one of us will be believed by town.

As such, civs, my plea is not that you remove your vote from Sol and I because I'm trying to defend him, but that you at least shift your vote from Sol to me.

Consider how difficult it would be to allow someone to post their findings on who is mafia and who isn't if nothing can be quoted and nothing can be guaranteed. This is not a time for town to treat such a strong claim so lightly and even though it isn't a strong claim against someone, it is a strong claim for someone.

Once again, other leads -against- someone are welcomed.

[Espithel]

Lol, call me out with questionable scumtells, then use my own point about how strange gino's move is against gino.

So because I want you lopped, I can't use anything you say to justify other topics? That's a rather foolish train of thought.

No, you can't both be mafia. But one of you is.

[rob77dp]

In the style of our favorite entertainer - the neutered-Espi, I present the less-entertaining-but-equally-valuable cases of Hyro and gino:

Spoiler for Hyro:

[OOC]Lynch Hyroen tomorrow.

Sorry <3. [/OOC]

Kuro's final day alive included this OOC (important to note the OOC since we now know Kuro-in-character is dangerous to trust) request for Hyro to be lynched "tomorrow". This was either lost in the shuffle or dismissed without fair time-gained vantage on the request itself. However, let this be a 'final straw' sort of piece in the case should you end up undecided or teetering between a couple choices for your vote...

My ability was blocked last night.

Assuming you didn't target skyironsword last night, color us intrigued. Make sure you read sky's passive ability.

Also, but I have to do this:

Hyroen (1) - Kuroaitou

speak~

The Hyro-request-from-Kuro came WITH A SUPPORTING VOTE from Kuro on Hyro too (at the time I took it as intended to prompt Hyroen to speak up but I now suspect maybe Kuro-hunches were also involved...).

Going to echo Calindu's statement that I don't care if I die by lynch - I'm the most useless townie of them all after all.

But. If I die, beware of rob's sudden attack towards me; Hyroen and rob would be quite the combination for a mafia team, no?

To reiterate rob's list of 5 deductions:

1. Kuro states his original claim of 'role that does nothing' is not true - lying town is a town that comes under fire.
2. Kuro claims a role that hurts town if lynched and hurts mafia if NK'd.
3. Kuro, based on past mafia games here, is not usually an early-game lynch target.
4. Kuro, based on past mafia games here, is usually a high-priority mafia-NK-target.
5. An ability that hurts whichever faction kills him combined with the very typical results for Kuro in an EtG mafia means his town strategy should be to steer his possible death to be by the faction opposite his own.

Turning roleplay mode to 'auto-pilot' now, so my grammar and spelling will remain intact, but just imagine me as CR partially.

1. Roleplaying CR is harder than I thought. Don't you guys remember that one time that CR MASSIVELY fudged up the roles by stating that there was a 'Policeman' in his list, rather than a 'Politician' or some shiz?
2. WIFOM (now that I get the paradox that was explained of it in chat); technically speaking, I may have a completely useless role ('nothing') that has no benefit to either side, since it's not an active role. Theoretically though, I could have also lied and try to either trick mafia into thinking that I actually don't have an investigative/protective/revenge role so that they avoid night killing me, and thus prolong the game magically through a simple roleplay/gamble at the beginning of the game (which is something I rarely do, but Linkcat's setup has given me more than enough ground and creativity to engage in the format, similar to how 51 was done with the bulletin board).

Of course, there's the situation that I could have just lied about being a role that hurts either side based on who kills me so that I can just live longer as a third party/mafia member who doesn't want to get lynched/player who just needs to survive until the end.

Too many situations! Blargh~

3. True. Except for that one time long ago perhaps (?).
4. Very true. But see 2.
5. Imagine what would have happened if I actually GOT a useful role. Instead of being the more talkative character who's seemingly pressuring others to speak up in order to create an analysis, I'd probably would have sunk right back into the shadows and kept a very low profile trying to either a) build a civy network as a townie leader, b) create as much chaos as possible as mafia, or c) assist whatever faction I'm on as a support.

All in all, what does this say about me?

...nothing actually. This was a terrible "defense", if at that.

...funny rob how you quote me and choose to paste certain parts of my posts without ACTUALLY quoting the -entire- thing by heart, unveiled. Shady, but no big deal I guess. Is anyone reading these statements? I miss baked potatoes.


If there's one thing I ask of you though, for this:

Hyroen (1) - CleanOnion
Kuroaitou (5) - rob77dp, Hyroen, mathman101, Sera, fabian771
Calindu (2) - 1011686, andretimpa
worldwideweb3 (1) - Calindu
rob77dp (1) - Kuroaitou

IF YOU'RE A REAL TOWN PERSON, DON'T CHANGE YOUR VOTE OFF ME. I assure you, whatever happens, my ability only wastes "time" for civilians, but will ruin mafia. Your mafia experience per se, not the mafia members sadly.

A very long post from Kuro of which I think the important part is not his back and forth about WIFOM (related to his "nothing" role that is worse than nothing for some and kind-of-nothing for others) but rather the portion Kuro himself yellow-bolded. At the time I found that part quite strange but in hindsight now looking back it seems to have possibly been a little trap-attempt from Kuro. I see no REAL way it could trap a mafia member _but_ if it had incited some vote-switching it would then have provided a somewhat narrow list of players we could suspect or sus-out/through by way of "who jumped when Kuro said jump" (I would hazard a guess that at the time only Kuro and mafia knew Kuro was town). Nobody flinched. However, if we allow ourselves to pursue a little ways down the path of "this is a Kuro trap" it leaves a list we can 2nd-level consider a mini-POE for suspicion.

rob77dp (myself), Hyroen, mathman101, Sera, and fabian771
Myself: we are quite familiar with the WIFOM about self-reading. I know I'm town but it has to be left to WIFOM for you to read me for yourselves.
Hyro: here I will use a URL-link to my previous starter-case related to Hyroen: Click here.
mathman101: has had sessions of suspicion cast on him without much done to push it away from him other than mysterious "other better targets" popping up to ease math's pressure
Sera: Espi quote "We've been extremely trusting of claims lately" however I still feel quite strongly Sera is near-confirmed as town/Sera
fabian771: deceased town.

I would then from this Hyro-part of my dual-case put the order thus: Hyro > mathman >>> Sera // fabian (fabian is dead already...)

{in-progress edit - Hyro posted while I was building this}

More meat on my claim? I'd love to.

Exact wording of PM? no can do, as per Linkcat's illuminating post. My main claim this round is that Sol is town. Unfortunately, I do see how this could sound like Mafia defending Mafia. Which is why I offered to be lynched instead if there is doubt. This I'll get back to in a bit.

Yes my claim is odd, but so have many of the abilities. According to UTA, his ability allows him to stab someone 3 times and then they go bye bye. I would not at all be surprised if this were an ability, because instakill would simply be too strong. So I'm guessing the 3 use rule is a way to balance it. Similarly, though I haven't played Mafia (the forum game) in a while I do imagine that there is some sort of investigatory role. Unfortunately, this role would seem to require at least a 3day use (as no strong claims have been made earlier) and the user likely can't see the results. So naturally, this puts me in a difficult situation, because I can't say it was me who used the ability, and I have to put my blind faith in this voice that tells me that Sol is town. Oh, and being unable to quote what I got makes it even harder to believe me.

Which brings me back to my previous point. If I were Mafia, trying to defend Sol, another Mafia, then it would be ludicrous to ask everyone to lynch me instead of Sol. In this case, town has the option of lynching Mafia or Mafia so it is win, win.

However, I ask that because I know that people may doubt me, and that's perfectly fair. But whether I get lynched or Sol does, the truth will come out and at least one of us will be believed by town.

As such, civs, my plea is not that you remove your vote from Sol and I because I'm trying to defend him, but that you at least shift your vote from Sol to me.

Consider how difficult it would be to allow someone to post their findings on who is mafia and who isn't if nothing can be quoted and nothing can be guaranteed. This is not a time for town to treat such a strong claim so lightly and even though it isn't a strong claim against someone, it is a strong claim for someone.

Once again, other leads -against- someone are welcomed.

Orange bold:
If indeed you(Hyro) and Sol are a mafia-mafia pair as you hypothetically posit then your conclusion of ludicrousness of your Hyro-before-Sol request is made MUCH LESS ludicrous if mafia have a role/ability that could save or deflect from a lynch. I suppose it is a longshot that such an ability is in-play combined with the also somewhat-longshot Hyro/Sol connection, but it bears mentioning that what Hyro just posted is somewhat feasible but comes with caveats... one that I've put here and possibly others yet un-stated.

This concludes the Hyroen folder, next is gino, and at the bottom is my conclusion on it.

Spoiler for gino:

I am not one customarily to piggy-back on the argument's/cases of others. I may reply or open discourse about another players research/reasoning post but rarely piggy-back. Here I find an exception to that where I am mostly piggy-backing on Espi's post/research.
{my edits are in italic green with silver glow}
{Teal-bold indicates specific emphasis added by me}

Right.
WHY GINO AND JCJ CAN GO DIE IN A FIRE: THE MUSICAL, PART TWO: PRAISE THE SUN

Spoiler for Of all the things to write a musical about:

This one's a weird one.

For now, I'd like to you assume that Gino is mafia. I'm now going to explain all of Gino's actions and tell you why fun stuff is going to happen.

Now, the number one thing you don't want to do when you're a town is to treat a mafia as confirmed town. Doing so will pretty much automatically cost you the game. The mafia are aware of this. You sheeples should be aware of it too. Are you? Good. Good boy. Here's your treat.
*Petpet*

Right. Gino had the ability to swap roles with people. This is a powerful "confirmation" tool. Confirmation in quotes because all it confirms is role, not faction. However:

My role is now sera, I claimed the only role that swapped a players role. Solaris is welcome to jump on me but when he does and i flip as sera and fippe finally claims to be ginyu, i would love to see solaris bleed out uta

Here we see Gino conflating role and faction.

I confirm Fippe through the use of my ability. Fippe if you post the name of the role i will post the name of the role i recieved in return

Here we see Gino doing it again, trying to cosy up to So-Close-To-Being-Confirmed-That-He-Deserves-1000-Mafia-Points-If-He-Isn't-Fippe.

Now, assume for a moment that Gino is mafia.

What's Gino is trading here, assuming it works, is the inability to kill a confirmed civilian (You would have to fake the moon landing to make a viable case for Fippe being mafia by this point) to get a mafia treated like a confirmed civilian, AND to make the confirmed civ like you. Assuming this plan works, that'd end the game right there and then. The risk is simply so much more worth the downside.

And why would it fail? We've been extremely trusting of claims lately.

On top of this, whilst Gino is guut, he's a sheeple. I don't think a sheeple gino is capable of pulling this off alone. {I pointed this very thing out myself BEFORE Espi developed into this research-musical: Click here to read it.} That's the reason why I want Gino lopped; The sheer risk of what he's done if he's mafia, coupled with him being most likely unable to know this if he wasn't mafia.
It could be a fluke, one supposes. But JCJ does raise a somewhat sailent point:

Gino, why would you use this on someone already confirmed? It makes no sense, surely you would use it to swap with someone unconfirmed to stand a chance of finsing a mafia, or confirming a new town?

Fluke, or Conspiracy?

Your choice. I simply believe the risk is too high and we'll gain a ton of information if Gino dies.

PS: I'd like some more meat to your claim, Hyro. It's far too far-fetched for me to take seriously right now.
I believe Solaris is at least neutral simply because he's acting the way I would expect him to.

... This musical was less epic than I thought it'd be. Oh well.

(note: I'm still a bit undecided about how I prefer doing the posting of these kind of investigations -- LINKS to the content or QUOTES of the content... any weigh-in on preference about this from all of you?)


Conclusion: I consider both Espi and I's cases to be quite compelling. I bring Hyro > gino and Espi brings gino/JCJ. These overlap on one player - godisnowonline. I feel persuaded by all of this to move my vote FROM Solaris ONTO Godisnowonline.

[rob77dp]

In the course of putting that together I neglected the voting section:
Solaris {3} - worldwideweb3, mathman101, Godisnowonline
godisnowonline {4} - Solaris, Hyroen, JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp
godisnowonline {0} - Espithel
JonathanCrazyJ {2} - UTAlan, Fippe94

[Espithel]

Orange bold:
If indeed you(Hyro) and Sol are a mafia-mafia pair as you hypothetically posit then your conclusion of ludicrousness of your Hyro-before-Sol request is made MUCH LESS ludicrous if mafia have a role/ability that could save or deflect from a lynch.

Limits on Roles
There are no roles that will affect votes or the result of any lynch. The player with the most votes at the end of each day dies always, and stays dead.

[rob77dp]

Orange bold:
If indeed you(Hyro) and Sol are a mafia-mafia pair as you hypothetically posit then your conclusion of ludicrousness of your Hyro-before-Sol request is made MUCH LESS ludicrous if mafia have a role/ability that could save or deflect from a lynch.

Limits on Roles
There are no roles that will affect votes or the result of any lynch. The player with the most votes at the end of each day dies always, and stays dead.

This weakens the smaller part of the case on Hyroen. Thank you for finding and sharing. (From the RULES post no less)

[Espithel]

I swear Linkcat's OP is the most quoted thing in a forum game ever