War #7 - Round 9

[deuce22]

Hain, your game theory table is completely irrelevant. It assumes all decks are more or less equal in that they win and lose to 50% of all decks. There are certain decks that aether won't use vs our opponent and vice verse.

My comment on randomness of predictions is that I can (hypothetically) predict gravy is likely to send 2 decks, but I do not have a deck that beats both, so it is completely random where I send the appropriate counter. If we guess correctly, then good for us. If not, well then someone else will get the glory this war. Obviously you can make the same argument for our opponents, but we encounter this scenario twice. It is much easier for our opponents to go 3-0 than for us to go 4-1. Even if we go 3-2 and everyone else goes 2-1 or worse, we still lose more cards. This is how wars have typically always been, but smaller teams typically have a much more limited vault instead of a fresh vault filled with its best decks. My point is, our dominance of first 8 rounds has almost no reward. I guess that's the whole point of phase 2, but it's frustrating because I feel like we are at a disadvantage despite being in "1st place"

[andretimpa]

My comment on randomness of predictions is that I can (hypothetically) predict gravy is likely to send 2 decks, but I do not have a deck that beats both, so it is completely random where I send the appropriate counter. If we guess correctly, then good for us. If not, well then someone else will get the glory this war. Obviously you can make the same argument for our opponents, but we encounter this scenario twice. It is much easier for our opponents to go 3-0 than for us to go 4-1. Even if we go 3-2 and everyone else goes 2-1 or worse, we still lose more cards. This is how wars have typically always been, but smaller teams typically have a much more limited vault instead of a fresh vault filled with its best decks. My point is, our dominance of first 8 rounds has almost no reward. I guess that's the whole point of phase 2, but it's frustrating because I feel like we are at a disadvantage despite being in "1st place"

RNG rules all
#bestteamrarelywins

[hainkarga]

I don't know how you came to that %50 conclusion out of thin air. But no deuce.

It assumes you have 8 (i made this up) viable strategies vs gravity that has a chance to win. Every single strategy also describes what viable decks to field against other opponents. A strategy doesn't mean it should win all matches but it gains you the best benefit under the assumption that every opponent are also fully rational. In that sense a (random) example could be;

Upon inspecting their vault, gravity's possible strategies could be

Strategy 1: field catatians to aether, chargertall to air, dbh to time.
Strategy 2: field dbh to aether, catatitans to air, chargertall to time.

And they know it as well. Then you go ahead and populate for each team. N viable strategies that you think each opponent will use. Next, you build your own strategies (say 8 total).

Then 1 of your 8 viable strategies could be;
Strategy 1: Field psiontall to gravity, Field Rol-Hope to time, Field fractix to air.

Now +1 means deck would win, -1 means deck would lose. This changes when the deck changes (-1 +1 doesn't indicate two results of DECKA vs DECKB. it indicates DECKA vs DECKB and DECK A vs DECK C)
Your strategy 1 could go +1, +1, -1 in case gravity uses its strategy 1, air uses its strategy 2 and time uses its strategy 1, respectively. (why use a deck that would -1 ? because it would win if time used strategy 2 instead.)

This is how you make a game theory table (i made the simplest form with random -+). If you use elimination methods there is no involvement of probabilities whatsoever. If you have no cross eliminated acceptable scenerio, you use mixed method in which case you need to field your decks with slightly controlled randomization.

It has no probability anywhere as long as you assume certain decks counter other certain decks. You cover every possible rational strategy which is viable and aims to win. You could of course complicate things by involving the probabilities of a certain deck winning against another. But i assumed a given deck is generally known to win vs another given deck. (aka RNG is out of this equation because you can't have control over it)

[deuce22]

TL;DR

Whatever you said, I'm sure I disagree with you.

[rob77dp]

-snip-
My point is, our dominance of first 8 rounds has almost no reward. I guess that's the whole point of phase 2, but it's frustrating because I feel like we are at a disadvantage despite being in "1st place"

Well, from my seat the reward is obvious - your team is still in War 7.  Right?

I get it (I think, maybe) - having been SO FAR ahead after 8 rounds, 'simply being in the running' after 2/3 of teams are eliminated instantly and now being only a margin ahead (tough to presume 0-5, 2-3, 4-1, etc really) must be frustrating.  However, I do not understand the claims that this War's method of moving forward beyond Round 8 has left Aether without any reward.

[deuce22]

I might be wrong, but I thinksome people are misinterpreting my complaint. I believe some are interpreting it as "we finished #1, so we should have an advantage", which is not at all what I've been trying to say (but I understand if it came across that way). It's more that I believe we are at a disadvantage in comparison to the remaining teams. I think the other 3 teams are all more or less equal since they have similar vault sizes and same # of matches. But aside from our larger vault, almost all other factors are disadvantageous. While the argument for a larger vault provides more diverse decks is logical, I would argue that the extra cards forcing us to play the extra 2 matches are either redundant or unnecessary. I would willingly drop cards in my vault so that we can play 3 matches instead of 5 like the remaining teams. My teammates may or may not agree with this, but this is just my opinion.

[hainkarga]

So you can freely dump the cards that turned out to be little use vs this final 4 setting ? We have a few of those too (:
You had the luxury of prepping vs everyone. And now, say, cards you stacked vs fire are not so good. So you come here and act as if you are willing to be sacrificing in an attempt to make your vault pure counter to us 3.

Deuce why are you so stuck on attempting to draw our pity on the winner with OP decks, vault and players ? And you don't seem to be satisfied with "you did good, you deserved to win". You want more. This is not going to happen because it is extremely ridicilous in essence. Lots of people laugh at you as you insist on claiming team aether has been the martyr through this war.

Ps. if you don't know what someone is talking about. it is generally best not to act as if you understand it and then "lol tldr" away.

[Avenger]

So you can freely dump the cards that turned out to be little use vs this final 4 setting ? We have a few of those too (:
You had the luxury of prepping vs everyone. And now, say, cards you stacked vs fire are not so good. So you come here and act as if you are willing to be sacrificing in an attempt to make your vault pure counter to us 3.

Deuce why are you so stuck on attempting to draw our pity on the winner with OP decks, vault and players ? And you don't seem to be satisfied with "you did good, you deserved to win". You want more. This is not going to happen because it is extremely ridicilous in essence. Lots of people laugh at you as you insist on claiming team aether has been the martyr through this war.

Ps. if you don't know what someone is talking about. it is generally best not to act as if you understand it and then "lol tldr" away.

Deuce said, he would like to dump ANY cards to reduce the vault size to 3 matches.

[andretimpa]

So you can freely dump the cards that turned out to be little use vs this final 4 setting ? We have a few of those too (:
You had the luxury of prepping vs everyone. And now, say, cards you stacked vs fire are not so good. So you come here and act as if you are willing to be sacrificing in an attempt to make your vault pure counter to us 3.

Deuce why are you so stuck on attempting to draw our pity on the winner with OP decks, vault and players ? And you don't seem to be satisfied with "you did good, you deserved to win". You want more. This is not going to happen because it is extremely ridicilous in essence. Lots of people laugh at you as you insist on claiming team aether has been the martyr through this war.

Ps. if you don't know what someone is talking about. it is generally best not to act as if you understand it and then "lol tldr" away.

Deuce said, he would like to dump ANY cards to reduce the vault size to 3 matches.

Go
-12 fractals
-6 novas
-12 dims
then

You can choose the rest of the discards.

[Avenger]

So you can freely dump the cards that turned out to be little use vs this final 4 setting ? We have a few of those too (:
You had the luxury of prepping vs everyone. And now, say, cards you stacked vs fire are not so good. So you come here and act as if you are willing to be sacrificing in an attempt to make your vault pure counter to us 3.

Deuce why are you so stuck on attempting to draw our pity on the winner with OP decks, vault and players ? And you don't seem to be satisfied with "you did good, you deserved to win". You want more. This is not going to happen because it is extremely ridicilous in essence. Lots of people laugh at you as you insist on claiming team aether has been the martyr through this war.

Ps. if you don't know what someone is talking about. it is generally best not to act as if you understand it and then "lol tldr" away.

Deuce said, he would like to dump ANY cards to reduce the vault size to 3 matches.

Go
-12 fractals
-6 novas
-12 dims
then

You can choose the rest of the discards.

Thanks, but your advice cannot be applied as it is not in the rules. We will have 5 matches.

[deuce22]

Hain, as usual, you exaggerate my words in such a flamboyant fashion that it is no where near what I said or mean.

I am not the first person to complain about something this war. And because someone complains about something that automatically means they are trying to draw pity from their opponents? Really? Now I know you are just trolling. So with that I am done with this conversation. I have decks to build.

Hain, I love you and miss you. But I am not happy you made it into top 4.

P.S. Just because you act like you know what you are talking about, doesn't mean you actually know what you are talking about.