Special spin statistics

[teffy]

Good. You get a winrate of ~67% and I got about 72,5% here, using a program (and similar result with math alone).

[Boingo]

Thanks for posting the results, drolly.  I was just tinkering with the results myself before I decided to check up on this thread.

Good work, drolly.
I expected the rares seen to be more or less equal, since they all have the same probability to show up, but eh.
It's interesting to note that SoR, SoSe and the third gen shards all have significantly higher appearance rate, excluding SoB.
I can understand the SoR and SoSe high appearance rate because they are needed for Instosis and Speedbow, respectively, but i don't understand what's the deal with SoB.
It is also interesting to note that the majority farms Plat as of now instead of Bronze (which might or might not be involved in increased Bronze gold prize), with both Gold and Bronze tied. And so, the Silver league is the unpopular League as of now.

I initially thought all rares would appear in equal proportions as well, but my personal experience (which is an even smaller sample size than this) proved otherwise.  I then began to wonder whether there was some unequal weighting of the shards/other rares on the part of zanzarino (all hail the mighty zanzarino!) for purposes of getting them out into circulation so that they might be used. 

Also, the results of rares won (and not simply "seen") will be affected not just by the RNG of the game but at least partially by the choices on the part of the player--e.g., choosing to break pairs which are worth relatively less to the player as he may have enough in order to try for a rare he does not have already.

I would be interested to see the results posted again in the future after more results are posted to see if the various frequencies of rares observed in spins becomes more uniform of if the disparities continue.

[teffy]

I initially thought all rares would appear in equal proportions as well, but my personal experience (which is an even smaller sample size than this) proved otherwise.

That´s true, that all rares should appear in equal proportions, but not for ~ 500 rare cards seen  (as in our example) or gotten .
Experimenting with a short computer program, you normally get sth like this:

Spoiler for Hidden:

Rare 1 is available 23 times
Rare 2 is available 20 times
Rare 3 is available 18 times
Rare 4 is available 22 times
Rare 5 is available 16 times
Rare 6 is available 14 times
Rare 7 is available 14 times
Rare 8 is available 31 times
Rare 9 is available 19 times
Rare 10 is available 16 times
Rare 11 is available 16 times
Rare 12 is available 11 times
Rare 13 is available 18 times
Rare 14 is available 18 times
Rare 15 is available 18 times
Rare 16 is available 25 times
Rare 17 is available 20 times
Rare 18 is available 16 times
Rare 19 is available 18 times
Rare 20 is available 23 times
Rare 21 is available 17 times
Rare 22 is available 18 times
Rare 23 is available 15 times
Rare 24 is available 20 times
Rare 25 is available 19 times
Rare 26 is available 16 times
Rare 27 is available 19 times

Minimum: 11; Maximum 31; Difference: 281% !

500/27 ~ 18 , that´s not enough to stop big differences. Not with 27 rares. You are underestimating the number of needed tries. The phenomenon is a mathematical one and NOT one of the chosen RNG.

Doing such an experiment with 1.000.000 tries, you get much better results, 1000000/27~37037:

Spoiler for Hidden:

Rare 1 is available 36864 times
Rare 2 is available 36982 times
Rare 3 is available 37000 times
Rare 4 is available 36941 times
Rare 5 is available 37010 times
Rare 6 is available 36892 times
Rare 7 is available 37115 times
Rare 8 is available 37349 times
Rare 9 is available 36735 times
Rare 10 is available 36916 times
Rare 11 is available 37136 times
Rare 12 is available 36914 times
Rare 13 is available 37321 times
Rare 14 is available 37330 times
Rare 15 is available 37278 times
Rare 16 is available 37120 times
Rare 17 is available 37049 times
Rare 18 is available 37010 times
Rare 19 is available 36900 times
Rare 20 is available 36949 times
Rare 21 is available 36918 times
Rare 22 is available 37185 times
Rare 23 is available 36876 times
Rare 24 is available 37178 times
Rare 25 is available 36733 times
Rare 26 is available 37222 times
Rare 27 is available 37077 times

Minimum: 36733
Maximum: 37349
Difference: ~1,68 %

You also see this phenomenon, when you collect stickers,cards, or nymphs - you often get many copies of some stickers, cards, nymphs and need many tries to get your last one.