I've finished tinkering around with the Scaryness rating and am pretty happy with how it turned out. Well, except for one thing, I'm uncertain how to balance the ups with the wins.
What do you folks think, how do the ups relate to the wins?
Currently, I've made it so that 6 ups count for a free victory. (So if you have 18 ups, you should win 3-0, each loss makes you lose scaryness) [Linear system]
Another idea I had was to have each up increase the win chance by 1% (from 50% for same ammount of ups) and balance the scaryness around the probability of the match score. (so if the score is reached by 30%, scaryness doesn't change much, but if it's 10% scaryness in/decreases quite a lot) [Non linear system]