~~ War #4 - Round 7 Match Results and Countdown ~~

[Mithcairion]

Never said it had anything to do with skill.  I suppose I could've been more clear in my previous post, this is why I shouldn't be posting in the middle of the night, but I digress.  To me, the impressive part is more that a player with equal or fewer upped cards than their opponent in every match is undefeated.  And despite my jesting, it is just as impressive to me that PlayerOa is, as well.  I simply missed his the first time through and was trying to cover it up by making it look like it was intentional.  Believe me, I'm well aware that the deck much more often than not makes the match, not the player (Look at my record this War, do you think that had anything to do with the way I played?   Not even a little bit )

[majofa]

I actually think that Root's post was directed at PlayerOa lol

...but in any case, it's just fun discussion.. I doubt anyone took any real offense to what you said.

[DrunkDestroyer]

IMO people underestimate how much playing the decks can make the difference. In my game against valuka (3 -2), when I won the last game, I realised, had I played devourers/pillars or a few other cards as I drew them, I would have lost.

And in the games against MatyrX (3 -1 loss), I RTed too early/too late a few times, when I should have waited it out or gone for it. If my basic maths skills are correct, neither of these actually changed the result of any of the games however had the draws been closer in any individual games, they really would have.


I can't speak for other players, but it makes sense for someone like Pervepic, who thinks through all his moves to have a higher record than people like me, who do tend to make mistakes, or not take certain things into account while playing cards.

[Higurashi]

We've certainly had big arguments as to how big a part player skill has in War. I can safely say I've seen a veritable ton more instances this War than the last where a different play choice would've changed the outcome.

On both ends of the spectrum. No less than three of Team Aether's games have been decided by play choices. I say "no less", because those are the ones I've been able to spectate and say with 100% certainty it is so. As such, it's rational to assume there have been more cases, especially considering I've only been able to spectate a fraction thanks to my timezone.

This might be less prominent in other teams. I have a tendency to take in new players that I see potential in, and their ability to learn fast can turn a game around in the fashion I mentioned. As such, the results I've mentioned may be more erratic than normal.

Regardless, I've gotten much proof player skill can certainly decide the outcome of War if it's even like last time or even more like this time. The real issue has always been how important it is rather than if it is or not. At this point people always try to put it into percentages or fractions, but honestly it comes down entirely to the deck matchups, so I can't quantify it like that. Some decks can put high pressure on both players, and it's a gamble to give such decks to other people in War, but it can really pay off. This reflects back to what players you choose for your team as well.

[Bonestorm]

I think luck plays quite a large part it in, who you're drawn vs (gen, lt, which team, what the opposing team's current vault situation is like, what the opposing team's other matches are) and what cards are available for the player in each match seems to play a larger role, as well as luck in the actual games. Even a lot of the 'skillful' decisions a player will make in-game will often come down in a fair part to luck.

Not going as far as to say that the player/team in question has no bearing on the outcome of the match once it has started but imho the vast majority of players in war will atleast have the skill to play well with the cards that are available to them against the information shown to them.

Aside, as majofa said, he's just compiled this out of interest and well done to everyone that has a good record this war. 

[majofa]

Don't get me wrong though, the discussion is fine.. it's okay to disagree. 8)

[Sevs]

I found this pretty interesting to i made a second sheet within the generator to take up the past rounds data and make the same data. The subbing stats you did are going to be hard to replicate. I might post a sorted list somewhere.

EDIT*
"

Element Win - Loss Earth 31-17 Entropy 31-18 Time 29-20 Aether 22-17 Death 24-19 Darkness 15-17 Light 16-19 Air 15-20 Gravity 13-19 Water 12-18 Fire 9-17 Life 9-19 Underworld 4-11

Rank Player Element Win - Loss 1 Higurashi 6-0 2 playerOa 6-0 3 Rastafla 6-0 4 majofa 6-0 5 10men 6-0 6 UTAlan 5-0 7 Pervepic 4-0 8 9270984 2-0 9 DeathAngelx 1-0 10 furballdn 1-0 11 MartyrX 6-1 12 MrBlonde 5-1 13 Mithcairion 5-1 14 PoLdeR 5-1 15 bogtro 4-1 16 ak65ala 4-1 17 girlsgeneration 4-1 18 Acsabi44 4-1 19 Kuroaitou 3-1 20 Rush6 5-2 21 inthisroom 5-2 22 mrpaper 4-2 23 Theonlyrealbeef 4-2 24 Jen-i 2-1 25 kirchj33 4-2 26 Sevs 4-2 27 Matrimkk 4-2 28 Dwerg 4-2 29 Vineroz 2-1 30 bjessee 4-2 31 ffun 4-2 32 agentflare 3-2 33 ralouf1 3-2 34 Antagon 3-2 35 nilsieboy 3-2 36 Jappert 3-2 37 Daguerreo 3-2 38 OdiiOdsen 2-2 39 DrunkDestroyer 3-3 40 BLoom 2-2 41 Onizuka 2-2 42 Terroking 2-2 43 jippy99 3-3 44 Jaymanfu 3-3 45 CCCombobreaker 3-3 46 AnnaMall 3-3 47 thenewguy 3-3 48 NapalmGrenade 3-3 49 Bhlewos 2-2 50 dragonsdemesne 3-3 51 bripod 3-3 52 TStar 2-2 53 AngelMusti 1-1

Rank Player Element Win - Loss 53 AngelMusti 1-1 54 plastiqe 2-3 55 vagman13 2-3 56 Jenkar 2-3 57 TheMormegil 2-3 58 EvaRia 2-4 59 Shaliyah 1-2 60 TuckingFypo 1-2 61 Legit 2-4 62 Wizardcat 2-4 63 Avenger 2-4 64 Gumbeh 2-4 65 Bonestorm 2-4 66 Jocko 1-2 67 deuce22 1-2 68 TheForbiddenOracle 1-2 69 PuppyChow 1-2 70 Zeru 2-4 71 Spielkind 1-2 72 suxerz 1-2 73 valuka 2-4 74 TheManuz 2-4 75 Thedictator 1-2 76 markilleruk 1-3 77 BatCountry 1-3 78 calindu221 1-3 79 Kakerlake 1-3 80 light_sefi 1-3 81 hainkarga 1-4 82 RootRanger 1-5 83 willng3 1-5 84 RavingRabbid 1-5 85 Robotocracy 0-3 86 YawnChainHow 0-3 87 Aves 0-2 88 xn0ize 0-3 89 Kamietsu 0-2 90 Dogg 0-2 91 morningstar 0-2 92 Iman00b8 0-3 93 pikachufan2164 0-3 94 Noobiecakes 0-3 95 Isei 0-2 96 LifeLockable 0-2 97 NikaZaslavsky 0-4 98 Rember 0-3 99 Malignant 0-1 100 Dm1321 0-1 101 DarkArk 0-2 102 CerealGuy 0-1 103 Gillero 0-3 104 Tiko 0-2 105 Shantu 0-1

"

[dragonsdemesne]

It is interesting to see which players have good records or not, but it isn't the be all and end all.  There's suicides that either pad some player's records or make others artificially worse, for instance.  Subs can affect it as well, if one player makes a mistake that the other wouldn't have, or vice versa, but that's very difficult to quantify.  Also, not all elements are created equal, and some pairings are more/less unfavourable than others.  Team Life, for instance, as I've said a few times in chat, had the handicap of being forced to use 15 life cards in every deck :p  The life element is weak, but that doesn't necessarily mean the players on that team are poor.  That's actually why, if I play in War #5, I'll probably try to get on one of the teams that did poorly this round, to see how I fare in that situation.

All that doesn't even get into the random variables, like specific player matchups, how many generals/lt/soldier you faced, did the RNG screw you in the butt, etc.  Against Dogg on team fire, for instance, I had one game where I topdecked a nova to take a game I would have lost and win it, I had another game where I got quanta screwed and had to discard for the first 5 or so turns and lost, and another game where I played my entire opening hand on turn 1; that's the RNG.  Nobody could have won that game when I was quanta screwed, and nobody could have beat me when I got that dream hand.  The one where I topdecked a nova might have come down to decision making in the turns leading up to it; did I do something smart to buy that one more turn, did Dogg do something silly to let me have that one more turn, or was the game a foregone conclusion (albeit with a very tense endgame) with the given draws we had?  It's impossible to know now.

[Dogg]

did Dogg do something silly to let me have that one more turn

Impossible!