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Offline DANIEELATopic starter

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(Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286088#msg1286088
« on: February 17, 2019, 10:55:36 pm »
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Boost-Gambler (3-0)...Damn! RNG robbed us of relics!

G#1 no gnomes in 15 cards
G#2 late discord and no golems
G#3 6ttw
G#4 6ttw
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« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 10:59:29 pm by DANIEELA »
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Offline Mobian

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286089#msg1286089
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2019, 10:57:05 pm »
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Offline serprex

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286094#msg1286094
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2019, 12:19:25 am »
So this matchup caused quite the discussion since shock was pretty mad about 3-0 gamble not turning out. I agreed to play a 20 match test with him, stakes: if I won 6 games, he'd give me a mark code. If I didn't win 6 games, I'd admit to everyone that I'm an idiot

Spoiler for Streamed the match:

Final score: Fire 14 - Light 6

Good deck Fire, that Antimatter was a pain to play against
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 02:19:01 am by serprex »

Offline rob77dp

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286095#msg1286095
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2019, 12:21:08 am »
So this matchup caused quite the discussion since shock was pretty mad about 3-0 gamble not turning out. I agreed to play a 20 match test with him, stakes: if I won 6 games, he'd give me a mark code. If I didn't win 6 games, I'd admit to everyone that I'm an idiot

Streamed the match: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/382442740

Final score: Fire 14 - Light 6

Good deck Fire, that Antimatter was a pain to play against
Serp-

Soooo... ... .... you're ALMOST an idiot, is what you aren't saying?
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Offline moehrpi

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286096#msg1286096
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2019, 12:24:53 am »
43:28 is the deciding match.

Offline shockcannon

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286097#msg1286097
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2019, 12:32:01 am »
Not pictured: lost a winnable game because hitting "esc" causes an instant forfeit in oetg instead of canceling a spell. I think I proved my point to everyone though.
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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286098#msg1286098
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2019, 12:35:30 am »
Not pictured: lost a winnable game because hitting "esc" causes an instant forfeit in oetg instead of canceling a spell. I think I proved my point to everyone though.
That despite 3-2 being lucky, 3-1 is perfectly reasonable? Even if you did win that last game, it's still 75% winrate. Just like 3-1 is

Offline shockcannon

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286100#msg1286100
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2019, 12:55:44 am »
Uh yeah. I lost a relic because of that. Also, 40-50% of the time this matchup never goes to game 4, which could've been even more relics. I mean yes, I should've gambled 3-1 but still. Also, you guys said in chat that this deck isn't a counter. Idk what you consider a counter then. 70% winrate is considered extremely high in essentially any form of competition across the globe. That's high enough to reach postseason in just about every sport. It's high enough to reach the top 1% of a ladder based matchmaking system fairly quickly.

Also 60% winrate over 5 games. 70% winrate over 20 games. Take the sample size to 5000 games, and there's a high chance simulator (which predicts about 78%) is very accurate. These decks are not hard to play and the AI will only misplay about as often as a normal human might when considering whether to miracle or not. It probably misplays my deck quite often, playing a discord when there's already a discord in play instead of saving for antimatter. If you don't trust simulator, plug it in yourself. Look at how it plays for 1 game and then plug in 10,000 games. Also, this myth about switching "deck 1" and "deck 2" to get different percentages isn't true. I tried that, it altered stats by less than 1%. Xenosim isn't always accurate, but it's not 20% inaccurate, especially if the decks are pretty straightforward.
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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286101#msg1286101
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2019, 01:41:46 am »
Every time a graboid evolves, an elemental gets his wings.
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Offline moehrpi

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286104#msg1286104
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2019, 03:04:11 am »
Also 60% winrate over 5 games.

Really?

[...] the AI will only misplay about as often as a normal human might when considering whether to miracle or not. It probably misplays my deck quite often, playing a discord when there's already a discord in play instead of saving for antimatter.

A human should not misplay, whereas the AI does regularly. Scenario #1 arises frequently, the second one rarely.

I think I proved my point to everyone though.

You did.

You did well, shock. Now rest.

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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286113#msg1286113
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2019, 05:58:28 am »
A happy day because :fire won.
A sad day because :light lost.


About the 3-0 gamble, RNG is not always kind to people and we should end the discussion here... :P
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Re: (Fire Gambler) DANIEELA 3-2 Mobian (Light Lieutenant) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=66917.msg1286120#msg1286120
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2019, 09:37:32 am »
Spoiler for serp after the match:

 

blarg: