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Offline BloomTopic starter

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(Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039482#msg1039482
« on: February 07, 2013, 12:30:27 am »
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5of 5of 5of 5of 5og 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 622 622 622 622 624 624 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 8pu


Not much to say, I had the faster rush every game (except game 3, where I drew both silences and chained for a 3KO). Gracefully played Zso, I wish you and your team the best of luck during the weeks to come.

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Offline Zso_Zso

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039483#msg1039483
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2013, 12:35:16 am »
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The White Wizard was not worried about this matchup, after all :air is so light it should be easy for :light to beat it.
We have even prepared a reflective shield in case they bring their unholy unstable gases.

Game #1 - LOSS
The game starts, and I draw 1 (ONE) pendulum for quanta source.
What kind of witchcraft is that from a deck with 50% quanta source ?  >:(
Err, lets do some math quickly: (1/2)^7 ~ 0.78% chance of that happening. :(
Did these :air people hire those broom-flying wizards from Hogwarts to put a spell on the most Holy RNG of EtG ?

But fear no more, the game desyncs after 1 turn -- huh, I knew there was witchcraft involved here, the servers can't take it either.
Now, this should be easy, I can beat that stupid AI, right ? ;D

$#%#%$&* WRONG ^#&#$@  :'(

I see the damselfly army multiplying with fractal spells, haha, no problem, I'm the White Wizard of :light, I can do Miracles!
...
and then
...

NNNNOOOOOOoooooooo......

Outrage! Who dares to silence a Wizard !?!?!

* White Wizard gets so furious, throws spells around like a madman *
* servers can't take the pressure and bork for the night messing up all other war games too*

2nd attempt: 2 light sources -- hurray double the previous, next time I should get my deserved 4 !  :P
But servers too borked to handle my gigantic luck, desync + disconnect after 1 turn.

* White Wizard takes a 24 hour break to calm down along with the servers *

###########

Game 2 - LOSS
Lo and behold, 4 quanta start! (3 pends for him)
nymphs on 3rd turn, but no miracle to be found, this wizard has lost his mojo... :(

Game 3 -- do I even have to state the result now, you got the pattern ;)
Aha, found the miracles, 2 of them in hand, but only 2 quanta start again, then got 1 more and thats it...
Curse that RNG  waaaay too OP!

DAT doubled!

2 turn silence chain (3 attack rounds), so I can't miracle

* White Wizard explodes in a Ray of Light and dissipates *

Spoiler for snapshots of shame:




GGs Bloom !
What can I say, got my arse handed to me on a flying plater  :'(
« Last Edit: February 07, 2013, 01:09:41 pm by Zso_Zso »
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Offline Vangelios

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039592#msg1039592
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2013, 08:53:02 am »
Did these :air people hire those broom-flying wizards from Hogwarts to put a spell on the most Holy RNG of EtG ?

 Well, if light can not resist witchcraft, then it is because it has algun kind of sin, and air reminds me Jenkar then as he gave me a feedback saying that I did not sacrifice enough virgins, and I think he should know the right amount to be sacrificed.
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Offline hainkarga

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039598#msg1039598
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2013, 09:39:49 am »
Thumbs up for using a mono light deck. I often wish angels had no ability, you could fit in some white nymhps, Hopes, archangels. Defense which is not having to focus on feeding hope and can still be a biting mono.
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Offline Zso_Zso

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039635#msg1039635
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2013, 01:12:12 pm »
Thumbs up for using a mono light deck. I often wish angels had no ability, you could fit in some white nymhps, Hopes, archangels. Defense which is not having to focus on feeding hope and can still be a biting mono.

A solar shield could have provided a nice defense + extra quanta against an army of damsels (half the damage would be blocked) -- unfortunately we went with reflective in fear of UGs.
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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039640#msg1039640
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2013, 01:24:06 pm »
Pro tip: you should berserk. Discarding 3 cards for 4 ups is not much.

As team aether how we mourn over berserker discards
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039671#msg1039671
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2013, 03:29:45 pm »
Err, lets do some math quickly: (1/2)^7 ~ 0.78% chance of that happening. :(

Not to be too picky, but your quick math is inaccurate.  :)  As the son of a high school math teacher, I feel obliged to enlighten.

"
Hypergeometric Formula. Suppose a population consists of N items, k of which are successes. And a random sample drawn from that population consists of n items, x of which are successes. Then the hypergeometric probability is:
h(x; N, n, k) = [ kCx ] [ N-kCn-x ] / [ NCn ]
"  (Source:  Info gleaned from here)

Hence, 30 card deck gives N=30, 15 pill/pend gives k=15, and opening hand of 8 gives n=8.  To determine odds of your desired 4-pill/pend start, you would use x=4.  This yields a 65.9% chance to start with 4 quanta sources in an 8 card hand from a 30 card deck containing 15 quanta sources.  :)  (Source:  Calc'd using this)

So even stronger RNG hate on you than you first estimated.

Hmmmm, after going through all that, I now realize quick math you may already know the above and just used 50% as rough estimate.  (50% compared to actual 65.9%...?)
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Offline Zso_Zso

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Re: (Air Lt.) Bloom 3 - (Light Ber.) Zso_Zso 0 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=46628.msg1039675#msg1039675
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2013, 03:50:55 pm »
I wasn't trying to estimate the chance of 4-pillar/pend draw, I was estimating the 1-quanta draw chance, for which my estimate went like this: you need to draw 7 non-quanta card simultaneously (in addition to the 1 quanta card), so 0.5 ^ 7 (50% chance for each card not being quanta source), which is the figure I used well below 1% chance of that happening.

Of course, this is not accurate as I ignored the possibility of no-quanta draw (8th card is also non-quanta), in which case the game's auto-mulligan rule would kick in for another shuffle, which could also lead to 1-quanta draw, so the real chance is slightly higher than the 1/128 figure I quoted, but the difference is quite negligible and still way below 1%.

BTW, I did study statistics at University, although it was over 20 years ago, so its not the freshest in my brain  ;)

Actually my quick-math is still wrong, using the formula you gave, the probability of exactly 1 quanta draw is: ~0.0165, so ~1.65%

« Last Edit: February 07, 2013, 03:58:16 pm by Zso_Zso »
Roses aren't red, Violets aren't blue.
They are just a simulation, and so are you!

 

blarg: