Pascal's Wager

[nerd1]

reminds me of another "wager" pascal made, called the prisoners dilemma.

shares many of the similarities that the dilemma previously discussed in this topic, so i decided to post it.

[OldTrees]

The prisoner's dilemma is not relevant. Nor should all the simple game theory games be posted like the Coordination Game, because most of the simple games are 2 player. The wager is 1 player and nature. Nature decides without a payout matrix or strategy so it is a very different type of game.

[jmdt]

Since the core of this thread is based on Voltaire debunking Pascal's theory, lets examine another theory by a christian scientist (This time Sir Isaac Newton) that Voltaire readily debunked.

Upon reading Daniel 12:4 Newton wrote "Personally I can not help but believe that these words refer to the end of times.  Men will travel from country to country in an unprecedented manner.  There may be some inventions which enable people to travel more quickly than they do now."  Later in the work, Newton speculates this speed may be 50 MPH or greater.

80 years later Voltaire replied "See what a fool Christianity makes of an otherwise brilliant man!  Here a scientist like Newton actually writes that men may travel at the rate of 30 or 40 MPH.  Has he forgotten that if man would travel at this rate he would be suffocated?  His heart would stand still!"

So how fast has man been?  During a space walk on June 3, 1965, Edward White 'walked' at 17,500 MPH while orbiting the continental United States.

So which of these men was actually the fool?

[Neopergoss]

Since the core of this thread is based on Voltaire debunking Pascal's theory, lets examine another theory by a christian scientist (This time Sir Isaac Newton) that Voltaire readily debunked.

Upon reading Daniel 12:4 Newton wrote "Personally I can not help but believe that these words refer to the end of times.  Men will travel from country to country in an unprecedented manner.  There may be some inventions which enable people to travel more quickly than they do now."  Later in the work, Newton speculates this speed may be 50 MPH or greater.

80 years later Voltaire replied "See what a fool Christianity makes of an otherwise brilliant man!  Here a scientist like Newton actually writes that men may travel at the rate of 30 or 40 MPH.  Has he forgotten that if man would travel at this rate he would be suffocated?  His heart would stand still!"

So how fast has man been?  During a space walk on June 3, 1965, Edward White 'walked' at 17,500 MPH while orbiting the continental United States.

So which of these men was actually the fool?

Although this is a little OT:

That doesn't really prove anything. "Many will rush here and there, and knowledge will increase" is a pretty vague statement. The bible makes plenty of historical claims that are much less vague and quite clearly false (eg: Jewish slaves built the pyramids (http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4191)).

Btw, good to hear from you, jmdt.

[OldTrees]

Since the core of this thread is based on Voltaire debunking Pascal's theory, lets examine another theory by a christian scientist (This time Sir Isaac Newton) that Voltaire readily debunked.

Upon reading Daniel 12:4 Newton wrote "Personally I can not help but believe that these words refer to the end of times.  Men will travel from country to country in an unprecedented manner.  There may be some inventions which enable people to travel more quickly than they do now."  Later in the work, Newton speculates this speed may be 50 MPH or greater.

80 years later Voltaire replied "See what a fool Christianity makes of an otherwise brilliant man!  Here a scientist like Newton actually writes that men may travel at the rate of 30 or 40 MPH.  Has he forgotten that if man would travel at this rate he would be suffocated?  His heart would stand still!"

So how fast has man been?  During a space walk on June 3, 1965, Edward White 'walked' at 17,500 MPH while orbiting the continental United States.

So which of these men was actually the fool?

Voltaire and Newton were both correct. See the necessity of a Windshield to protect riders from the suffocation caused by the fast moving air.

[ratcharmer]

@OT: consider convertables. Or motorcycles. Windshields protect the rider from insects and other airborne objects. (not sure if you were serious or not . . .)

@Jmdt: Brilliant men make mistakes, just like anyone else. There has never been a scientist who never made a flawed prediction.

As to the main subject of this thread, this will probably be one of the few times I agree with Daxx in the religion section.

Pascal's wager is not a good reason to hold a belief. Moreover I would argue that it is actually impossible to hold a belief (any belief) because of Pascal's wager or a similar argument.

Suppose a man were to approach you and show you a suitcase full of money. He tells you he is going to give you all of that money, but only if you can convince yourself that the moon is made out of cheddar cheese. He has a super-advanced lie detector which he wires to your head, so he will know if you're lying and only saying that you think the moon is made of delicious, delicious cheese.
Can you win the money? Of course not.
A human being cannot simply start believing something is true because holding that belief will benefit him/her. Faith should not be treated as a wager.

Pascal's wager does highlight some interesting things, but it is not a reason for people to convert, and was never intended to be used as one.

[OldTrees]

@ratcharmer
I agree with you that belief is not voluntary like the Wager assumes.

[I learned about the Windshield detail in a History class although it occurred at a higher speed than Voltaire thought and only required the air flow to change to create a slow moving air pocket.]