Pascal, a mathematician (and one of the founders of probability theory)
listed the following as his reason for believing in god.
(But first some probability theory)
There is a concept in probability called expected value, where you take every possibility, multiply the value by its probability, and sum all of them.
Example: If there is a bag with 10 tiles that say 5, 3 tiles that say 15, and 1 that says 100,
the expected value is ((5*(10/14))+(15*(3/14))+(100*(1/14)))
Simple enough.
By comparing expected values of various choices, one can mathematically determine which is best.
Imagine a button (A) that is 10% chance to give you $1,000,000 and 90% chance to take $100 away from you.
Another button (B) will give you $50 half the time, and $100 half the time
the expected value of (A) is (0.1*1,000,000) - (0.9 * 100) = 100,000 - 90 = 999,910
the expected value of (B) is (.5 * 50) + (.5 * 100) = 75
obviously, (A) is better, despite the fact that 90% of the time, you lose 100
Pascal applied this concept to religion
Imagine there are two choices, believe in God (A) or don't (B)
first, (A) [you believe]
imagine that the chance of God existing is something arbitrarily small, say, 1%
the reward for believing is infinite (infinite heaven), and the penalty for believing and being wrong is some wasted time (lets call that -100)
the expected value of believing in God, even if the chance of God existing is super tiny is
(.01*infinity)-(.99*-100) = infinity
now, (B) [you don't believe]
the reward for having been right is that not only did you not waste your time believing, but you also felt superior all your life to the illogical believers (100)
the penalty is hell (- infinity)
(.99*100)- (.01* infinity) = negative infinity
infinity is much better than negative infinity
Thus, Pascal mathematically showed that unless one could say that the chance of God existing is 0, beyond any shadow of a doubt, it makes mathematical sense to believe.
Thus, Pascal believed in God.
Again, the math above shows that if the probability of God's existence is anything other than 0, even by .0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001, then mathematically it would be to your advantage to believe.
Thoughts?
