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Offline UnderneathTheLens

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Re: Vampire's Holy Navy [Light] [Water] [Darkness] [Plat] https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=49058.msg1068719#msg1068719
« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2013, 02:40:16 am »
I have this deck all upped and tested a similar win rate.
Similar to my win rate, or similar to the win rate in the OP?

Similar to yours. Even 10-10 sounds incredibly improbable; that'd be higher than any of the other top decks against the arena at the moment.

I have my Statistics AP tomorrow, so for practice, I decided to run a hypothesis test.

Assuming that Pella and laxnut know how to play this deck equally well, and that the plat meta did not change drastically between when they played, there should be only about a 1.1% chance of seeing results as low as Pella's given laxnut's results. That's kind of low to be attributed to random luck, so most likely, either Pella's or laxnut's stats are inaccurate. (Or there's some other factor at play here)
« Last Edit: May 10, 2013, 02:43:36 am by UnderneathTheLens »

Offline laxnut90Topic starter

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Re: Vampire's Holy Navy [Light] [Water] [Darkness] [Plat] https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=49058.msg1068808#msg1068808
« Reply #25 on: May 10, 2013, 11:45:49 am »
After reaching 11-16, I have decided that my original winning percentage may have been shear dumb luck.  I no longer consider this to be a good platinum farming deck.
"The man who fears losing has already lost"

― George R.R. Martin, A Game of Thrones

Offline Asinickle

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Re: Vampire's Holy Navy [Light] [Water] [Darkness] [Plat] https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=49058.msg1068985#msg1068985
« Reply #26 on: May 10, 2013, 09:59:42 pm »
After reaching 11-16, I have decided that my original winning percentage may have been shear dumb luck.  I no longer consider this to be a good platinum farming deck.
Have you tested it against other leagues?
I have my Statistics AP tomorrow, so for practice, I decided to run a hypothesis test.

Assuming that Pella and laxnut know how to play this deck equally well, and that the plat meta did not change drastically between when they played, there should be only about a 1.1% chance of seeing results as low as Pella's given laxnut's results. That's kind of low to be attributed to random luck, so most likely, either Pella's or laxnut's stats are inaccurate. (Or there's some other factor at play here)
I wish you luck on your test! And thanks for the math! I'm taking that class next year.. seems like it will actually be useful :)

Offline laxnut90Topic starter

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Re: Vampire's Holy Navy [Light] [Water] [Darkness] https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=49058.msg1068990#msg1068990
« Reply #27 on: May 10, 2013, 10:16:48 pm »
This deck is not working anymore.  I am currently 11-23. 

I will leave the thread in case someone finds a more successful version.  However, I think Poison Dials and/or Swallow would have a much higher win-rate.

Feel free to continue using this deck if you are having greater success with it.  Also, if you have been testing a more successful version and/or have been more successful in a lower arena level (i.e. Gold, Silver, Bronze) please post it here or in a new thread.

Otherwise, I would not recommend using this deck against Platinum.
"The man who fears losing has already lost"

― George R.R. Martin, A Game of Thrones

 

anything
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