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Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32637#msg32637
« Reply #192 on: March 04, 2010, 03:46:03 pm »
You certainly could be right Vreely. The only way i guess i'm really gonna be able to find out which is better is to grind out a bunch of games with both (probably 200 a piece). I would hate to use only 100 games because i am getting a bad ratio currently in matchups.
I agree with you there.  One would think 100 games is a good sample size, but really its not because the ratio of matchups can be drastically different.   I think we start to get a better idea once at least 10 games from each FG have been completed, then the normalized win rate (as displayed) will probably be a bit more meaningful for how the deck will perform in the long run.   To get 10 games from each, it will probably take 300 games or so.   I do plan on sticking with this variant now, so perhaps I'll actually get there.  I'll continue to play the 36 card druid-less deck, and you continue with the 36 card + druid.  I think over time we'll get a good comparison.  It will be interesting.   

I am also going to start loosely keeping track of how many games I run into that are grind games, defined as such:
  • If I have to crack through Chaos Lord's Dissipation shield.  (this is the worst)
  • If I have to overcome either Seism or Obliteratlor's Diamond shield in such a way that I am rewinding more than 5 times.
  • If I have to deck out any FG.
  • If I have to overcome Elidnis' jade shield/mass FB (when I cannot destroy enough FBs).
Note:  I am not going to count the Miracle grind, because even with the druid you still have to patiently continue to upgrade things and burn through all his Miracles.  In other words, its a long game regardless.   I do recognize that it will be longer without the druid, but I think it only adds 2-3 minutes on average.

Astaroth

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32688#msg32688
« Reply #193 on: March 04, 2010, 06:15:33 pm »
It's weird that Mr. Blonde brought up that he has fought quite a few of the hardest FGs, because I have too. The past two or three days have been nothing but Obliterator, Divine Glory, Octane, and Graviton. I honestly thought that maybe the odds of getting these had been changed a bit after yesterday...  :o

And I don't see how you guys have wins against Octane. I've NEVER beat him, and I'm using the same deck as Vreely. Maybe you have to get the perfect opening hand... or an early Pulvy, which I never get.  On the other hand, I beat Dark Matter twice yesterday thanks to early Otys and tons of towers.

I might try the added Druid version, because I have had a few games from yesterday go awry due to not having enough "firepower." One game, Elidnis used five or six Twin Universes on a weak Forest Spirit right before I was about to win. This healed him a ton with Feral Bonds, and instantly took down a small bonewall (Phase Dragons and other Immortal creatures had been slowly tearing it down). My point is that I had that game won, but the shield and bonds were too much.

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32701#msg32701
« Reply #194 on: March 04, 2010, 07:17:13 pm »
And I don't see how you guys have wins against Octane. I've NEVER beat him, and I'm using the same deck as Vreely. Maybe you have to get the perfect opening hand... or an early Pulvy, which I never get.
In my wins, it was because I had a Pulvy early enough.  Not opening hand, but within the first 6 turns or so.   Its pretty much required for a chance I think.  My losses were because I didn't get the Pulvy in time ;)

MrBlonde

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32799#msg32799
« Reply #195 on: March 04, 2010, 10:09:30 pm »
It's weird that Mr. Blonde brought up that he has fought quite a few of the hardest FGs, because I have too. The past two or three days have been nothing but Obliterator, Divine Glory, Octane, and Graviton. I honestly thought that maybe the odds of getting these had been changed a bit after yesterday...  :o
In my post i actually had a portion that i deleted detailing that ever since Octane has been introduced the ratios for Chaos Lord, Scorpio and Miracles had all been changed for the worse and was wondering if the randomizer had been changed. BUT then i looked at Vreely's stats and when they bore out basically my exact same ratios i have run over the 1000 games prior i just figured it was bad luck.

And I don't see how you guys have wins against Octane. I've NEVER beat him, and I'm using the same deck as Vreely. Maybe you have to get the perfect opening hand... or an early Pulvy, which I never get.  On the other hand, I beat Dark Matter twice yesterday thanks to early Otys and tons of towers.
Like Vreely responded you have to get your Pulvy up rather early and hope that he doesn't get too many gases out. But at least with this version you have a chance to beat him. Considering Vreely and I are 4-7 vs him so far i think you've just been unlucky.

I might try the added Druid version, because I have had a few games from yesterday go awry due to not having enough "firepower." One game, Elidnis used five or six Twin Universes on a weak Forest Spirit right before I was about to win. This healed him a ton with Feral Bonds, and instantly took down a small bonewall (Phase Dragons and other Immortal creatures had been slowly tearing it down). My point is that I had that game won, but the shield and bonds were too much.
I could also see that same problem with Gemini occasionally without a druid. If you don't get an early pulvy and he's allowed to get enough gravity to make dragons and manages to TU a bunch of them (and pray they aren't momentumed) i could see trouble since you can't mutate them down. Even with an arctic your shields will fall if he TU's a dragon 5 times and has 2-3 immortals.

Vreely: I think 2-3 minutes on average for miracle is probably right. Nothing can be helped there but it's just a minor exchange for this build. Chaos Lord is the big problem though. What makes Chaos Lord difficult is that he has steals so if you don't get your Pulvy early and protect it i am leery to play it. I'm not sure if Discord is a higher priority then Pulvy so i pretty much won't play it unless i absolutely have to unprotected because if that gets stolen forget about the game. Because of this i think Chaos Lord is the weakest link of the FG's concerning increased time. That dis shield can be a total pain.

I will also use a normalized win rate because i should get to 10 games per FG as well. Though it seems that Elidinis and Paradox are evading me. The last 224 games i have seen them 6 and 8 games respectively (which hurts since recently i've been 14-2 and 15-0 vs both of them). And then i look at Vreely and his 5 vs elidinis and 12 against paradox in 133 games and go  >:( >:( >:(

Edit: Also something else to add to show that statistics can really be helped with small sample sizes. I no doubt believe PuppyChow's deck works and works well but his current 65.6% winrate is not a completely accurate gauge. His ratios are at 43/42/15 (Bad/Good/Neutral) where the norm is around 46.5/36.5/16 and 14% of his bad FG matchups are against Scorpio which should be in a neutral. So if i adjust the ratios  by making Seism and Scorpio neutral...

Norm - 29.5/36.5/33
PuppyChow - 23/42/35 - 118 games
Vreely - 31/41/28 - 133 games
MrBlonde - 37/20/43 - 76 games

So actually over the long haul i expect the percentages for both PuppyChow and Vreely to fall a little bit as the matchup ratio evens out.

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32888#msg32888
« Reply #196 on: March 04, 2010, 11:20:05 pm »
Chaos Lord is the big problem though. What makes Chaos Lord difficult is that he has steals so if you don't get your Pulvy early and protect it i am leery to play it. I'm not sure if Discord is a higher priority then Pulvy so i pretty much won't play it unless i absolutely have to unprotected because if that gets stolen forget about the game. Because of this i think Chaos Lord is the weakest link of the FG's concerning increased time. That dis shield can be a total pain.
I agree with you completely that Chaos Lord is a weak link of my build.  However, I am learning to deal with him.  You do not need an early Pulvy, but you do need it protected.   Once you get it protected, the game is quickly yours.   If you get it late (only 4 cards left or so), then typically your board is already setup full of fireflies and skeletons and you have a massive bone wall protecting you.   Then play the Pulvy, protect it, and next turn knock down his shield and hit him for 80 damage or so.  2 more turns of this and he's dead.

So I draw aggressively until I get the Pulvy + PA in hand.   At this point, if I have at least 18 or so left in the draw deck & the Eternity in hand I will actually play an Eternity unprotected first and try to use it to bounce a few of his beefy mutations that he cannot recast, or one that he burned all his chaos powers on.  Eventually the Eternity either is stolen, or I no longer need it, then I'll replace it with the Pulvy to rip down his dis shields.   I ignore Discord.  I rarely makes it through my shield except in the early game sometimes.  If the Pulvy is in hand, but I cannot find the protect yet AND my board is setup with a bunch of firepower, then I will take a chance and play it unprotected.   Typically he has burned all his steals by now.  He can draw one of course, but so far I have gotten lucky.  Usually I only need it around for a 3 turns of destroying the dis shield.

Where the long game comes in is when the Pulvy is in the final 2 cards.  Draw it on 2 & play it, use it on 1 then I am forced to play the Eternity w/ protect and snuggle in for 20 rounds of dis shield protection (assuming he replaces it).  If you get the Pulvy on the 3rd to last card, I am typically OK.  Draw on 3  & play w/ PA, use it on 2 & nail him, use it on 1 and nail him, use it on 0 and finish him.

Pulvy will be in the final 2 cards only 1 out of every 18 games against him, and in that 1 game you have a 20% chance to lose to him before you even notice its buried (die to an early rush).  This means you only have a 4.4% chance of hitting the hell game with CL on each matchup against CL.  This is bearable. 

Take the calculation with a grain of salt, because there are many variables.  For instance, there is an extraneous case where you draw both your graveyard & queen in the final 10 cards so you cannot setup the board to kill him in 3 turns.  In this case you need the Pulvy a turn earlier, and my calculation does not include it.  Then to throw another wrench into it, he typically mutates my secondary Oty & my Octopus; sometimes into a very useful base creature that is subsequently rewound for me to play again and reap the benefits.  Sometimes he doesn't have 3 dis shields in hand.  Sometimes I have to use a quint on an octopus to keep me alive early...  you get the point.  Math can only take one so far in a complex game such as this.

All of this adds up to:  Its not as bad as you think.   Yes, I have been caught in a lockdown game with him (2 at the most), but 1 or 2 games out of 133 total games played is not going to ruin my day.

Now... you want to talk about Elidnis?  I think that is actually my weakest link.  I have no answer for a later game Pulvy and a bunch of bonds and immortal creatures that slowly tear down my bone wall while he remains virtually untouchable behind a jade shield and 40 points of healing each turn.   So far in the 5 games I have caught against Elidnis, only 1 had a late Pulvy, and in that one I was lucky that he never drew a jade shield before I took him out.

Astaroth

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32932#msg32932
« Reply #197 on: March 05, 2010, 12:05:08 am »
It's weird that Mr. Blonde brought up that he has fought quite a few of the hardest FGs, because I have too. The past two or three days have been nothing but Obliterator, Divine Glory, Octane, and Graviton. I honestly thought that maybe the odds of getting these had been changed a bit after yesterday...  :o
In my post i actually had a portion that i deleted detailing that ever since Octane has been introduced the ratios for Chaos Lord, Scorpio and Miracles had all been changed for the worse and was wondering if the randomizer had been changed. BUT then i looked at Vreely's stats and when they bore out basically my exact same ratios i have run over the 1000 games prior i just figured it was bad luck.
Ah, glad to see it was only bad luck.

And I don't see how you guys have wins against Octane. I've NEVER beat him, and I'm using the same deck as Vreely. Maybe you have to get the perfect opening hand... or an early Pulvy, which I never get.  On the other hand, I beat Dark Matter twice yesterday thanks to early Otys and tons of towers.
Like Vreely responded you have to get your Pulvy up rather early and hope that he doesn't get too many gases out. But at least with this version you have a chance to beat him. Considering Vreely and I are 4-7 vs him so far i think you've just been unlucky.
Again, bad luck. Believe me, there are plenty of games where Pulvy is in the bottom half of my deck...

I agree with you completely that Chaos Lord is a weak link of my build.  However, I am learning to deal with him.  You do not need an early Pulvy, but you do need it protected.   Once you get it protected, the game is quickly yours.   If you get it late (only 4 cards left or so), then typically your board is already setup full of fireflies and skeletons and you have a massive bone wall protecting you.   Then play the Pulvy, protect it, and next turn knock down his shield and hit him for 80 damage or so.  2 more turns of this and he's dead.
I tend to forget about his Steals from time to time, and he WILL steal that Pulvy. When he does, it's not pretty. Feral Bonds? Forget them. Hourglasses? Nope. Sundials? Yeah right. He'll destroy them all. Earlier, he slowly took down a Bone Wall with my stolen Pulvy and a few creatures. It's a rather annoying fight if he takes it...

I actually performed pretty well against Chaos Lord with other decks, mainly because they have Steal. Plus, a druid can create a creature with Destroy or Steal abilities.

Now... you want to talk about Elidnis?  I think that is actually my weakest link.  I have no answer for a later game Pulvy and a bunch of bonds and immortal creatures that slowly tear down my bone wall while he remains virtually untouchable behind a jade shield and 40 points of healing each turn.   So far in the 5 games I have caught against Elidnis, only 1 had a late Pulvy, and in that one I was lucky that he never drew a jade shield before I took him out.
With Elidnis, you HAVE to take those Aether towers out, or you will probably lose. Then, you focus on his bonds. This way, he can't summon the dragons, he can't quint the other creatures, and he can't duplicate anything a thousand times in one turn. But like you said, a late Pulvy here can be really bad. This matchup is much easier in other decks I've used that have had Permafrost Shield.

MrBlonde

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg32964#msg32964
« Reply #198 on: March 05, 2010, 12:45:20 am »
Good post Vreely and thanks for fleshing out your Chaos Lord strategy. Now that you've explained it a bit it doesn't seem as bad now. Knowing that i can throw my Pulvy out with 3-4 cards left seems manageable and those long games should be kept to a minimum. Just need to stay focused during those times (i sometimes go on autopilot and usually do multiple things while playing elements, probably one of my favorite things about this game.. that i can multitask and play).

Elidnis..... i didn't even think about how tough he would be especially with a jade shield out.

Astaroth: Yeah you really gotta remember what FG's have what and even how many of each he has. Although i am using better builds then before just knowing your FG's back and forth improves your winrate significantly. Like Vreely mentions you have to protect your Pulvy vs Chaos Lord unless you are pretty sure he doesn't have any more steals or absolutely have to play it.

Concerning Elidnis you don't really need a permafrost either. My last 16 games i've been 14-2 vs him without a permafrost or a pulvy. The Druid will probably be the difference maker in this matchup costing a few wins here and there without him.


So the verdict so far is as follows without a druid.
-Chaos Lord and Elidinis the winrate will suffer a little bit due to late Pulvy's
-Miracle, slower by a few minutes

With the Druid
-TU abilities by Gemini, Paradox, and Elidnis aren't as troublesome.
-Miracle and Chaos Lord should be a little bit faster on average.
-Winrate may be less with other FG's due to the extra card and ratio/quanta issues.

Astaroth

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg33303#msg33303
« Reply #199 on: March 05, 2010, 02:11:06 pm »
Good post Vreely and thanks for fleshing out your Chaos Lord strategy. Now that you've explained it a bit it doesn't seem as bad now. Knowing that i can throw my Pulvy out with 3-4 cards left seems manageable and those long games should be kept to a minimum. Just need to stay focused during those times (i sometimes go on autopilot and usually do multiple things while playing elements, probably one of my favorite things about this game.. that i can multitask and play).

Elidnis..... i didn't even think about how tough he would be especially with a jade shield out.

Astaroth: Yeah you really gotta remember what FG's have what and even how many of each he has. Although i am using better builds then before just knowing your FG's back and forth improves your winrate significantly. Like Vreely mentions you have to protect your Pulvy vs Chaos Lord unless you are pretty sure he doesn't have any more steals or absolutely have to play it.
I kept that first paragraph quoted up there because I do the same thing. I multitask and play. Sometimes I come back 30-40 minutes later, and this was mainly what I was referring to about Chaos Lord. I know he has Steal, but I'll come back completely absent-minded and play an unprotected Pulvy.  ???

PuppyChow

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg33509#msg33509
« Reply #200 on: March 05, 2010, 09:48:50 pm »
100,000th view! FTW!

MrBlonde

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg33813#msg33813
« Reply #201 on: March 06, 2010, 11:12:44 am »
Okay guess i'm gonna rant and rage a little bit now so if you don't want to hear me whine maybe you should pass on this post. It's been a very difficult tough go lately and i just want to throw my laptop. Just finished 150 games and i have to say... I AM NOT HAPPY. What makes me more frustrated is that i'm not sure if i can blame it on the build, bad luck, or just a mass of bad FG's.

Even when i play the easy FG's right now i'm losing. In what i thought would finally be an easy win after playing obliterater twice, Rainbow, Seism, and Divine Glory twice, i play Gemini...

End of the 4th round Gemini has out 2 Phase Recluses both momentumed, an Immortal, and a Dragon. I have out... 1 tower.  Dead in round 6th. Same thing with Paradox earlier, ended up dead round 7 or 8 with him having out 5 14/14 ray of lights and a few deja vu's. Honestly can't remember if i've ever run through a streak this badly. Today i also lost to Destiny, Paradox, Gemini again and Elidinis twice. All games that are pretty much automatic wins for me. Prior to today including this build I was 58-5 against those 4 FG's. And i managed to go 1-6 against them today. What... the... &$*(#....

Soooo... with that said. I'm really not sure what to think. Vreely may be correct that adding the druid may be messing up the balance of the deck but honestly am not sure. I am certainly getting more bad draws right now and am not getting the cards i need fast enough. I don't know if not having the 5th sundial is making that difference or having that 1 additional card or i'm just plain going through a bad bad run. Seism and Morte are also beating me up pretty badly right now.

Anyways I am currently 69-81 (46%) and 49.21% normalized. Ugh. I think i'll restart up after the weekend (cool off) and try the build without the druid and see if i can see a significant difference. Only thing good i can say right now is that i've won a lot of cards at least in my wins. 34 in 69 wins is a really high rate.

http://elementsstatistics.comxa.com/getstatistics.php?dv=1491316809

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg33852#msg33852
« Reply #202 on: March 06, 2010, 03:10:10 pm »
Ouch!

Looking at your 150 game stats, part of it certainly is bad luck.  Look at your top 4 opponents (Scorpio, Morte, Seism, Rainbow) compared to me pulling Fire Queen 19 times (just keeps coming up).   Also, you have too small a sample size against some of the easier ones.   You can easily get 2 more Ferox wins, 2 more Elidnis wins, 2 more Paradox wins, and your normalized rate will go up about 5 or 6 points probably.   Paradox certainly should normalize at 85-90% or even higher.  Ferox you should be able to land 70% at least.

I hate to say it, but the other part of it probably does have to do with watering down the ratios by adding the 37th card.  You will get more screwed on the no-tower draws, and when you do get them you have less chance of recovery.   It is scary how many of my games come down to a final draw where I need to get 1 or 2 specific cards to stay alive, or I have 1 final chance to generate that 5th Aether quanta, or any number of other examples like this.  In your deck, there is 1 more chance that it is not that life saving card, or that you did not get a tower out early enough to get that 5th Aether quanta.   You almost never need a druid as a critical card to stay alive...  you could have had a SD instead, or a Super Nova to allow you to cast a shield, etc.

Yet another possible factor is in play style.  I did a poor job of expounding on strategy for each FG, and as I said in the initial writeup, this is a very difficult deck to play well.   And example would be the CL strategy I put in a later post.  If you were not holding your Pulvy and playing with a PA, I could easily see how your win rate would be lower.   Perhaps there are other small little nuances in play that I have picked up on.  It comes down to knowing the FGs behavior down to the smallest detail.   This deck does live on the edge and I do have to leverage very small factoids I have picked up.  For instance, on Gemini, some may now know that keeping his massive dragons frozen will prevent him from duplicating them (not because he can't, because his script won't).  Then if you protect your big Oty and keep your second Oty at 3 power, then he will burn all his Twin Universe's on one of your fireflies (power 4), which are very easy to deal with, especially if you are holding the firestorm waiting for it.

Finally, even over 150 games, I still think my normalized win rate is a bit inflated.  In no possible way should I be pulling 62% with Seism.  I don't know what unholy pact I made to have pulled my single PA in my first 14 cards in 6 out of 13 games.  Then in another 2 games where I didn't get the PA until card 25 or so Seism just happened to not have a quicksand?   I fully admit that my win rate on Seism should be closer to 0.40 rather than the 0.62 it shows now.   Also, I have only faced Morte 3 times in 150 games.   I picked up 2 out of 3 against him, but over 10 games or so I would guess it will be more like 40-50%.

Astaroth

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg33904#msg33904
« Reply #203 on: March 06, 2010, 04:55:03 pm »
Yesterday was frustrating for me too. I fought Divine Glory four times, Rainbow three times, Seism and Obliterator twice, and lost to Chaos Lord twice because of ridiculous creatures (one had Steal one game, and the other had Destroy in the next). Needless to say, I lost A LOT yesterday. Then, when I did win, it was really long, drawn out games. The worst part: I didn't win one single card. Therefore, no upgrades. I was not happy with Elements yesterday...  >:D

 

blarg: