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ivalmian

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg23668#msg23668
« Reply #132 on: February 06, 2010, 06:43:20 pm »

Thats the version I am using right now too Ivalmian, except: +1 SoG, -1SD.

I actually started making friends with the sundials again.
They are still reasonably powerful and I can really feel the extra breathing room ... as opposed to always being on the wire because you will have to draw that darn 2nd phase shield next turn or else face death.
yup.. the improved miracle really turned out to be quite useless :P (Surprisingly so) while making my dials upped removed the whole "should i draw a card in hopes of phase shield or put a sundial" conversation...


*ivalmian's elite otyugh eats jangoo's puffer fish! Muahahaha.....*

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg23807#msg23807
« Reply #133 on: February 07, 2010, 02:23:58 am »
BTW,, here is the deck i'm running right now.. I think this is very much what vreely ran for his 59% stats (i am not keeping stats atm)... vreely, please correct if this is not what you're running.


Yep, thats exactly right.  I finished with 181 games before things flipped to 1.19.   I think that gives enough games to have valid stats, and here is the final update for 1.18 stats.

Games:  181
Win Rate:  0.59
Elemental Mastery Rate:  0.50
Cards Won:  43 (0.24 per game)

Easiest God (min 10 games):  Fire Queen (0.96 win rate)
Hardest Gods (min 10 games):  Divine Glory, Dark Matter, Hermes  (winless)
Gravitron win Rate:  0.32  (See he is beatable!!)

Notes:
I still had a few of games where I needed some earlier QTs.   I am not sure if its worth dropping a SD for another QT.  I doubt it.  However, it may benefit from just adding a QT and making it a 41 card deck.  I am hesitant to go over 40 though, cuz the picture is nice and square right now ;)

ivalmian

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg23827#msg23827
« Reply #134 on: February 07, 2010, 02:57:56 am »
BTW,, here is the deck i'm running right now.. I think this is very much what vreely ran for his 59% stats (i am not keeping stats atm)... vreely, please correct if this is not what you're running.


Yep, thats exactly right.  I finished with 181 games before things flipped to 1.19.   I think that gives enough games to have valid stats, and here is the final update for 1.18 stats.

Games:  181
Win Rate:  0.59
Elemental Mastery Rate:  0.50
Cards Won:  43 (0.24 per game)

Easiest God (min 10 games):  Fire Queen (0.96 win rate)
Hardest Gods (min 10 games):  Divine Glory, Dark Matter, Hermes  (winless)
Gravitron win Rate:  0.32  (See he is beatable!!)

Notes:
I still had a few of games where I needed some earlier QTs.   I am not sure if its worth dropping a SD for another QT.  I doubt it.  However, it may benefit from just adding a QT and making it a 41 card deck.  I am hesitant to go over 40 though, cuz the picture is nice and square right now ;)
haha... same here! Top post updated!


WOOHOOO.. finally beat rainbow... sheesh.. i think this breaks by 10 game loosing streak to him :P

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24383#msg24383
« Reply #135 on: February 08, 2010, 09:48:02 pm »
So just for the heck of it, I am going to run 100 games with a 12 QT / 3 SD version of the deck.  I am not expecting any difference that is outside of a normal margin of statistical error.

However, even without relevant stats yet, I am already not liking it as much.  I already lost to a Fire Queen rush, and that NEVER happened in the 4 SD version(s) I tested throughout 281 games (24 FQ games).  We'll see.  Maybe it was just freakish bad luck.  I'll carry out a 100 game test with the prediction that it will land between 56% - 59%.

ivalmian

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24384#msg24384
« Reply #136 on: February 08, 2010, 09:50:02 pm »
So just for the heck of it, I am going to run 100 games with a 12 QT / 3 SD version of the deck.  I am not expecting any difference that is outside of a normal margin of statistical error.

However, even without relevant stats yet, I am already not liking it as much.  I already lost to a Fire Queen rush, and that NEVER happened in the 4 SD version(s) I tested throughout 281 games (24 FQ games).  We'll see.  Maybe it was just freakish bad luck.  I'll carry out a 100 game test with the prediction that it will land between 56% - 59%.
heh.. good luck! i too don't think it would change stats too much :p


Edit: hm.. someone just dekarmaed me >:( what have i ever done :P

Vreely

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24394#msg24394
« Reply #137 on: February 08, 2010, 10:46:55 pm »
Bah!  I just lost to another FQ rush.   That is 2 now in 6 FQ games.   Maybe that 4th SD is much more critical than I originally thought.

ivalmian

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24562#msg24562
« Reply #138 on: February 09, 2010, 04:49:44 pm »
Bah!  I just lost to another FQ rush.   That is 2 now in 6 FQ games.   Maybe that 4th SD is much more critical than I originally thought.
well, 2 game doesn't make or break stats.. i think in my original fat deck i had lik 3 sundials, and i beat firequeen 5 out of 5 games with EM... I think you might be having some bad luck... where I find the extra sundial is VERY needy is gemini and seism however...

Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24745#msg24745
« Reply #139 on: February 10, 2010, 03:16:14 am »
1.   FFQ Win (3)
2.   Scorpio Lose  (1)
3.   Divine Glory Lose by one round (3)
4.   Incarnate EM (2)
5.   Morte being EMed (1)
6.   Chaos Lord Lose (2)
7.   Seism Lose (3)
8.   Seism Lose (0)
9.   Incarnate Win (2)
10.   Destiny Lose (1)
11.   Chaos Lord EM (2)
12.   Chaos Lord EM (2)
====================
tried this deck with the thought that my rainbow is not a nice one
and the results are shown above (tower draw in first round)
the winning rate is a bit low for me, perhaps thats becoz i am a newbie

a few points wud be
-11Towers are not enough, i got 1/3 matches with 1 or 0. And i cant draw towers when i needed them
-Drawing 1/0 towers is bad, cant draw hourglass in first 5 ronuds is worse, if both take place then u r dead, this game require lots of luck, afterall. (thats why i got EMed by morte ><)
-A funny scenario is that Chaos Lord put up dissipating field and u already used improved steal, then u will need to use IMPROVE until u get a mutant with destroy... If your druid is dead/mutated, then u have to wait for him to deck out... So be sure to make your druid immortal when facing CL
-Steal is definitely not enough, maybe replace it with pulvy?

this deck has many advantages, however
-very good speed when u got an hourglass early
-getting permanent Oty is very easy
-upped sundials are great and u can use hourglass like crazy in early game

edit: Simple mathemagic with tower draws in first round
For 11towers in 40cards, assume all cards are drawn randomly in first round (which should be)
Probability of getting no tower = 0.0837
Probability of getting exactly 1 tower =0.2803
Probability of 0/1 towers = 0.364, thats 364 games in 1000 games

correct me if i am wrong

ivalmian

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24764#msg24764
« Reply #140 on: February 10, 2010, 05:41:12 am »
edit: Simple mathemagic with tower draws in first round
For 11towers in 40cards, assume all cards are drawn randomly in first round (which should be)
Probability of getting no tower = 0.0837
Probability of getting exactly 1 tower =0.2803
Probability of 0/1 towers = 0.364, thats 364 games in 1000 games

correct me if i am wrong
Your math is wrong.. :)

For 7 cards (starting hand) probability of getting 0 towers is 0.0403... for first turn (8 cards) it's 0.0216

So after your first draw you have only 2% chance of not having towers... which is ok :P

Probability of getting one tower in first 7 cards is 0.0720015...


Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24766#msg24766
« Reply #141 on: February 10, 2010, 05:53:00 am »
Huh? we got 29 non-tower and 11 tower, a total of 40cards
P(no tower with 7 card) = 29x28x27x26x25x24x23/40/39/38/37/36/35/34=0.0837

Delreich

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24767#msg24767
« Reply #142 on: February 10, 2010, 05:55:31 am »
edit: Simple mathemagic with tower draws in first round
For 11towers in 40cards, assume all cards are drawn randomly in first round (which should be)
Probability of getting no tower = 0.0837
Probability of getting exactly 1 tower =0.2803
Probability of 0/1 towers = 0.364, thats 364 games in 1000 games

correct me if i am wrong
Your math is wrong.. :)

For 7 cards (starting hand) probability of getting 0 towers is 0.0403... for first turn (8 cards) it's 0.0216

So after your first draw you have only 2% chance of not having towers... which is ok :P

Probability of getting one tower in first 7 cards is 0.0720015...
Errm, no. CelestrialDreamer's maths is spot on. With 8 cards drawn it's 5.58% chance of no towers.

Jumbalumba

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Re: ivalmian's Rainbow SpeedDeck (kills almost all FG with elem master for v1.17+) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=2156.msg24768#msg24768
« Reply #143 on: February 10, 2010, 06:00:20 am »
Umm...
P(0 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.0837...
P(1 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.280...
P(2 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.350...
P(3 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.2102...
P(4 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.06467756...
P(5 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.010...
P(6 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.0007...
P(7 towers in first 7 cards) = 0.0000177...

 

blarg: