DEMA: Destroy 'EM All! V2.1

[tinkady]

sweet...DEMA is the only one that I can make with almost no upgrades needed
my gut feel is that SEM is the best but hopefully i'm wrong 

[tinkady]

could you clarify as to what that means specifically?
through some casual testing i think its biggest problem is not getting a cremation when it needs it? but thats a problem with any fire rush

[jmdt]

could you clarify as to what that means specifically?
through some casual testing i think its biggest problem is not getting a cremation when it needs it? but thats a problem with any fire rush

Its basically % chance for a bad draw or failure to launch as I like to call it.

[tinkady]

right, but for this deck specifically what is a failure to launch? not getting any damage on the table? no golems within 2 turns?
if its the first one it'd make sense because a phoenix could count as damage. but it would make the deck as a whole get launched less often i'd think? in case of no novas in hand or BL and cremate
but the goal should maybe be the second one. just why i want some clarification

[jmdt]

right, but for this deck specifically what is a failure to launch? not getting any damage on the table? no golems within 2 turns?
if its the first one it'd make sense because a phoenix could count as damage. but it would make the deck as a whole get launched less often i'd think? in case of no novas in hand or BL and cremate
but the goal should maybe be the second one. just why i want some clarification

I think we decided no damage by turn 2 was a failure to launch for this particular deck since 2 novas and a 2nd turn graboid is still launching.

[PoLdeR]

could you clarify as to what that means specifically?
through some casual testing i think its biggest problem is not getting a cremation when it needs it? but thats a problem with any fire rush

a launch is one of the following situations in your first 8 cards:

golem + ball + immo,
golem + phoenix + 2 nova + immo
2 nova + phoenix/dagger + gabroid

and i should have also calculated
nova + immo + ball + phoenix/dagger + gabroid
to be truly spot on i now found out after a few games, but that has a small chance of occuring anyway

[willng3]

With additional testing and tweaking of this deck, it indeed appears to be much more solid than the original version.  Quite the useful, fast, and fun deck for EMing an opponent.  I've picked it back up to see if it truly lives up to the hype .
Incidentally, I wouldn't mind running more calculations on it to modify my earlier post, but it appears Napalm has you covered, so...may mắn!

[miniwally]

Where's this in comparison to "Da Fastest Speedbow"?

[Ifailgood]

Where's this in comparison to "Da Fastest Speedbow"?

I beat that in T50 using a partially upgraded deck, only once out of like 4 times. So it has a good chance against it if you have a decent draw and fully upgraded.

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I tried to make the deck smaller by adding Procognitions. The idea is to use a nova to power procognitions, then hopefully procog will give you a cremation, or BL (whichever one you are missing), increasing the launch rate. It works okay, I don't feel it's significantly faster than the original version.

[tinkady]

eh i think that having to power precogs off the cremates would just make it more prone to failure to launch, for example if you get a precog instead of a spark and cant cremate anything

[PoLdeR]

This deck has a PoLdeR index (an appoximate bad draw chance of) 13.4 %. in comparison, SEM has 10 %, standard lava golem rush has 11.2 %, supernova rush has 17 %. This means that it does not only own, it hardly ever doesnt.

This PoLdeR index is found by approximating good draw odds with a binomial distribution supposing all stochastic variables are independent. I hear ya saying: its hypergeometrical distributed!, yes, but you cannot easily compute the chance of getting a combo of cards with that!! PoLdeR index can.

For SEM i computed the approximate chance of getting only 1 pillar, the real chance is 6.5 %.
For lava golem rush i did the approximate chance of casting a golem from the first 8 cards with the tower + phoenix + immo + golem possibility accounted for.
For supernova rush i did the approximate chance of getting a tower and a supernova first 9 cards, with the automulligan accounted for.
with DEMA it gets trickier, and thats exactly why it rox. I have to add up the possibilities of getting in the first 8 cards one of the following:
E1 immo + ball + golem (60 %)
E2 immo + 2 nova + phoenix + golem (10 %)
E3 2 nova + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid (28 %)
E4 nova + Ball + immo + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid ( 39 %)
E5 2 Ball + 2 immo + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid (14 %)

when you play it with -1 ball +1 phoenix you get
E1 immo + ball + golem (56 %)
E2 immo + 2 nova + phoenix + golem (17 %)
E3 2 nova + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid (36 %)
E4 nova + Ball + immo + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid ( 33 %)
E5 2 Ball + 2 immo + 2 of phoenix/dagger/gabroid (14 %)

here the same table for golem rush
E1 immo + ball + golem (51 %)
E2 immo + tower + phoenix + golem (38 %)
E3 2 tower + 2 of phoenix/gavel (16 %)
E4 tower + Ball + immo + dragon ( 32 %)
E5 2 immo + 2 ball + dragon (9 %) (before you spam me messages saying that a golem is good in this event also: That event is included in E1, so you do not count it again)


now dont just add up these percentages!!!!!!!! there is an overlap to the events. Using the principle of inclusion/exclusion (wikipedia it and dont ask) good draw chance is
100*(
(0.60+0.10+0.28+0.39+0.14)
-(0.6*(0.1+0.28+0.39+0.14)+0.1*(0.28+0.39+0.14)+0.28*(0.39+0.14)+0.39*0.14)
+(0.6*(0.1*(0.28+0.39+0.14)+0.28*(0.39+0.14)+0.39*0.14)+0.1*(0.28*(0.39+0.14)+0.39*0.14)+0.28*0.39*0.14)
-0.6*(0.1*(0.28*(0.39+0.14)+0.39*0.14)+0.28*0.39*0.14)
+0.6*0.1*0.28*0.39*0.14)
= 86.555248

  THATS A LOTTA NUMBERS!?!?!?! well it beats answering 100 ppl where i get my numbers from

[kintar]

So is this deck faster than the Ultimate Speed EM deck?