How do you get a "fast jade shield" when you have 10 land in a 40 card deck with no supernovas? 1/4 of the cards are pillars, and one pillar makes on average 1/4 of a green quanta per turn, so
green_quanta_per_card_per_turn = 1/16
green_boost_into_play = 0.25
g(turn) = num_cards * num_turns * 1/16 + num_pillars*green_boost_into_play
num_cards = num_turns + 7
average_num_cards = (7 + (num_turns + 7))/2 = 7 + num_turns/2
g(turn) = (7 + num_turns/2) * num_turns/16 + num_cards/4*0.25
g(turn) = 7/16*num_turns + num_turns^2/32 + (num_turns+7)/16
Put "= 7/16*A1 + A1*A1/32 + (A1+7)/16" into excel and you'll see on turn 8 you'll have an average of 6.4375 green mana. It'l be a little bit more than that because of hourglass activations digging up towers (but a little less from unlucky SoGs). I just played a game where octane killed me on turn 6.
Yep. It's still far from "auto win", but jade shield help a lot when you can play it. My win rate against Octane is about 50% with this deck. Protect one SoG asap and if you are lucky you can antimatter one of flying eagle eyes before you can play jade shield. There is much "if's" I know. Sometimes you don't even see Jade shield before you lose - even if you have all other goods. SoGs and other shields don't help much against Octane.
In typical situation when I can play Jade my HP drops around 30. Original deck uses few supernovas, but in long run quantum towers > few supernovas. In relatively small time marked deck there is not really space for supernovas (you may need other useful cards). With entropy mark story is different. One good thing with time mark is: your time quantum don't run out so fast, so you don't deck out (even if you use eternity quite often earlier)
Nowdays I hope I can play vs Octane, it's "oh well" -type matchup. You gain your critical things or you lose that battle. Simple as that. BTW: I like your math
I use this deck when I mystically run out of electrum (now I mostly play with 30 card deck vs. FG's ><).
I tested PuppyChow's and yaladilae's decks in one day - and find out that: you have lot quantum in early game, it's obviously good thing, but I like different approach: like rewindin FG's cards + there is even slight reasoning for things like Jade Shield, Antimatter, Alfatoxin and Condor. Overall this DON'T mean that this actual deck is more effective than other ones. Just for few matchup's you have right tools if you ask me.
