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Offline majofaTopic starter

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1123162#msg1123162
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2014, 09:44:49 am »
Can an event organizer please post clarification about the rule stating "cannot have any similar cards with your other deck"?  Does it mean the first two decks could not share similar card or is it applicable to the response-deck not being able to share similar card with a contestant's first two decks?

Thanks!
The first 2 decks.

Offline andretimpa

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1123180#msg1123180
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2014, 11:04:17 am »
Lots of people posting death and gravity monos too :P
Every time a graboid evolves, an elemental gets his wings.
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Offline farscape

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1123433#msg1123433
« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2014, 07:50:09 pm »
This round feels like "Mission Impossible" compared to the previous ones!  :'(

I'm having trouble making a deck to even counter 1 of the opponent decks with the given restrictions, let alone all 4.

Offline rob77dp

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1123436#msg1123436
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2014, 08:05:39 pm »
This round feels like "Mission Impossible" compared to the previous ones!  :'(

I'm having trouble making a deck to even counter 1 of the opponent decks with the given restrictions, let alone all 4.

At this point of the event, I suppose it is a big step up this round thrashing the participants leaving the chaff eliminated and the grain moving forward. :D

(I agree - much higher difficulty countering and getting high aggregate Win% this round for me compared to prior rounds)
Death War #12/TBD TTG Brawl #6/1st Death War #10/9th GP Brawl #5/6th Death War #9/9th MoL Brawl #4/3rd Water War #8/7th DDD Brawl #3/3rd*Death War #7/5th*Death War #6/11th

Offline dawn to dusk

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1123948#msg1123948
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2014, 05:43:20 am »
This round's rules are actually absurd... brings attacking (3rd) deck's chances to pure rng... even with 5k simulations..

this. with my tests, differences can be as big as 1% per deck. and with a round like this where you are only getting 2-3% per deck anyway...

Offline Submachine

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124003#msg1124003
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2014, 05:13:01 pm »
Even with 5000 simulations, there WILL be a 1-3 % fluctuation. That's why I usually only take the first outcome.
Even if I would run 5000 sims 3 times and count the average of those, it would still fluctuate.
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124091#msg1124091
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2014, 02:36:32 am »
Fluctuation is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size, however.

In other words, with a sample 4 times as large, the result fluctuates only 1/2 as much from the true win probability.

Of course, if we have 5000 simulations for a deck with a 10% win rate, the standard deviation of the difference between the simulated win rate and the actual win rate is only 0.4%, which means about two thirds of the simulations will fall within 0.4% of what the actual win rate is supposed to be.
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124349#msg1124349
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2014, 07:33:43 pm »
All submissions after this post are declined. Initiating simulations. Results coming soon.
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Offline andretimpa

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124382#msg1124382
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2014, 09:03:27 pm »
Lol, I thought you were announcing the results :P
Every time a graboid evolves, an elemental gets his wings.
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124395#msg1124395
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2014, 09:28:31 pm »
Nope, that's my job.

The Results: Farscape and I move on, the three people with crappy decks are out.
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124428#msg1124428
« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2014, 11:18:39 pm »
GROUP A
Calindu Deck 1Calindu Deck 2rem4life Deck 1rem4life Deck 2rob77dp Deck 1rob77dp Deck 2TOTAL %
Calindu 2.94% 4.34% 3.40% 5.16% 15.84%
rem4life 6.94% 50.48% 9.64% 14.00% 81.06%
rob77dp 0.52% 6.72% 22.42% 0.30% 29.96%

GROUP B
dawn to dusk Deck 1dawn to dusk Deck 2farscape Deck 1farscape Deck 2Zso_Zso Deck 1Zso_Zso Deck 2TOTAL %
dawn to dusk 0.30% 2.00% 3.54% 7.70% 13.54%
farscape 8.98% 16.94% 4.26% 13.66% 43.84%
Zso_Zso 8.42% 14.68% 1.36% 8.52% 32.98%

GROUP C
andretimpa Deck 1andretimpa Deck 2Regyptic Deck 1Regyptic Deck 2RootRanger Deck 1RootRanger Deck 2TOTAL %
andretimpa 0.32% 0.20% 0.04% 0.06% 0.62%
Regyptic 9.32% 37.5% 8.42% 16.58% 71.82%
RootRanger 12.36% 42.78% 25.26% 9.22% 89.62%
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Offline dawn to dusk

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Re: Computer Simulations - ROUND 4 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=53474.msg1124430#msg1124430
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2014, 11:22:57 pm »
Swear to god I hate RNG. I got 5% more when I was doing my tests. I would still be out but...

What does this goddess of the random numbers have against me?????

 

anything
blarg: