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Offline BluePriestTopic starter

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The Real Unemployment Numbers https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=22639.msg287122#msg287122
« on: March 09, 2011, 10:38:33 pm »
Unemployment in the US is said to be at  9.5% according to google (http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate+us) That is as of Feburary. I also heard though that the number has since dropped to around 8.5%. Then if you research, you will have some people claiming it is really a lot higher saying that people are no longer counted due to no longer actively searching for work. So this is what Im wondering. Is that just a bunch of bullcrap? Is this talk I hear about "true unemployment numbers" really as high I have heard? http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6196496/did_a_large_increase_in_99ers_lower_pg2.html?cat=9 is a good site to show what I am talking about. Is that even an accurate way to measure it? Just more info on this in general would be nice.
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Daxx

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Re: The Real Unemployment Numbers https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=22639.msg287709#msg287709
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2011, 07:34:31 pm »
Measuring unemployment is actually very difficult, and when you mix in the general political motivation for incumbent governments to report unemployment to be as low as possible and opposition groups to report it to be as high as possible, it becomes almost impossible to get a true figure.

For example, there are invariably different forms of structural unemployment in an economy, and the size of the actual population who are able and willing to work is not the same as the total size of the population. For instance, governments don't usually count children or people who have retired as unemployed, even though they are people who are not in work. Similarly some people are incapable of working due to disability. Some people choose not to work because they are in a relationship where they are financially supported or they have savings/investments enough to support themselves. Some people are unemployed because they are lazy and do not want to work. Some people have the wrong skills and/or qualifications for available jobs. Some people see certain jobs as "beneath them" and will refuse to work below a certain pay grade, or may not be willing to take a step down when in six months time another more appropriate and highly-paid job might come along. Some people are forced to leave work to be full-time carers or parents. Some people are short-term unemployed in very fluid jobs markets and may only spend a few days or weeks without a job.

Considering how complex this is, it is tempting (and many governments in fact do) measure unemployment by the "claimant rate", which is equal to the number of people currently claiming unemployment benefits of some kind. However, this measure too fails to account for a number of reasons why people are not working, so must be compared to estimates on the size of a country's available labour, and fails to account for reasons that a person may not be working but may be claiming, or claiming whilst working, and so forth. There are various other measures that are similar to this, and most rely on similarly complex reporting methods.

These figures are very easy to manipulate on both the incumbent and the opposition sides. It's very easy to point to a figure and say "they're lying, this is the true unemployment rate" without context, and since the issue is extraordinarily complex it is very easy to mislead people. Essentially understanding what particular employment rates mean and why they are at the levels they are is something that needs serious analysis, and is unlikely to be the sort of thing you can use as a soundbite whilst retaining any sort of accuracy or context.

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Re: The Real Unemployment Numbers https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=22639.msg291555#msg291555
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2011, 03:38:32 am »
This whole thread is set up on misinformation. Of course unemployment doesn't count people who are unemployed and not looking for a job because it isn't meant to. If you're not looking for a job it is assumed that you are somehow supported and therefor are not in need of the benefits of unemployment.

Offline BluePriestTopic starter

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Re: The Real Unemployment Numbers https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=22639.msg293000#msg293000
« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2011, 02:08:12 am »
If there were less illegals hogging up gas stations and Mickey D's, then yaaaaaaaaaaaa the % would be lower.
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Offline Essence

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Re: The Real Unemployment Numbers https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=22639.msg299755#msg299755
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2011, 01:38:04 am »
The real unemployment numbers are much higher than 9%, not because there are people who don't need work (as Uppercut seems to imply), but because the unemployment numbers are based on the number of people who are currently filing unemployment claims.  That leaves out:

    People who have collected their maximum allotted unemployment benefits and still haven't found jobs, reported by the BLS at about 1.4 million a couple of months ago. [/li]People who have become depressed and stopped looking for jobs (and thus stopped filing for unemployment) even though they need a job and still qualify for unemployment benefits.  These people are referred to as 'marginally attached' to the labor force. [/li]People who want more employment (more hours or more jobs) than they can currently obtain despite their best efforts.  These people are only counted as a portion of one unemployed person. [/li]

The total unemployment rate with all of those people taken into account is called the U-6 (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm) rate, and it currently stands at 15.9%, though even that number is in question because of a tricky way in which the BLS just changed the way they measure the size of the workforce.  December's number, 16.9%, is probably more accurate.
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