So, as promised, a little bit of political analysis on this subject. I'll try to list every opinion I heard so far, but I'll put mine up front so that if I'm partial, you'll be able to understand it better:
I think Berlusconi doesn't want to resign and will be able to keep his influence on our political situation for the following years, through a network of corruption, blackmail and personal charm. We will see what comes now, but I'm skeptic about this resignation and about all its possible cascade effects.
The facts are as follow: three days ago Berlusconi had 308 votes in his favor at the Chamber, while the majority is 316. He still holds the absolute majority in the Senate but he no longer has the majority in the Chamber. (side note: one of the voters was at the bathroom, so he probably has 309. Whatever. He started this period with the greatest majority in the history of the Italian Republic, including the old Christian Democracy which had a stable 60+% of votes, so he
has lost a great number of votes). Berlusconi himself wrote "308 votes, 8 traitors" right after the voting.
Berlusconi's government had pressing issues (well, more pressing than the usual at least) to solve since last summer and was urged to do so by every possible political element in the world: Europe, Central European Bank, International Monetary Fund, opposition, his own majority, people, A. Merkel, Sarkozy, even Obama wrote his concern. So far, barring some laws that were deemed anti-costitutional but still managed to somehow delay our President's trials, this government hasn't approved any law. Manoeuvres were started and aborted, law designs were discussed and left alone. Berlusconi wrote a letter to the European Union, though, announcing he intends (or intended?) to do some major laws to ensure the economical stability of the state.
Now that he is resigning (maybe, he didn't yet and we're all waiting to see him do so today) everybody is talking about a technical government: Mario Monti (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Monti) is the "homo novus", the new guy that should be trusted with a new government and fix all of Italy's problems. There are very mixed feelings about this:
1) people would like to vote again. In a moment like this, though, it is impossible for two practical reasons: the first is the awful election system we have, that takes away choice from the citizens which are forced to vote a party rather than deputies, which in turn designs deputies as the party itself sees fit. This is one of the most powerful corruption systems that the politicians have, as people like Berlusconi are able to actually sell places in the Parliament this way. There is a way to fix this (massive autonomous primary elections for the parties that do not want this system) but voting with a more decent law is prefereable. The second reason - much more important, in a way - is that if nothing is done before January, 100 billions euros of "italian bonds" are going to vanish, with probably no chance whatsoever to see replacement as people won't buy them with the risk they involve now. We are risking default. Going to vote with the economics in this state is rather... tricky.
2) Mario Monti is a Goldman Sachs man. Americans know what that means better than I do. However, I personally dislike having a man from one of the banks responsible of the economical crisis coming here to govern my country and supposedly "fix" the problems they created themselves. Monti has many positive aspects to his personality, but his international visibility is aimed to tranquilize markets and europe, rather than us citizens. Many people fear that a possible Monti government will do as they see fit without even the potential ripercussion of next term's elections, "fixing" the economical situation yet another time favoring the rich over the poor.
3) Even if Monti was to be nominated President, he still needs to pass his laws through the Parliament. Unfortunately, half or more than half than the Parliament is under Berlusconi's influence. If the last votations are to be trusted, we might snatch a very close win on the Chamber, but the Senate is still there and he has the majority there. So he either lets Berlusconi have his way even if he is no longer in charge, or he needs to find another majority - which unfortunately
is not there.
4) The laws EU wants us to introduce are subject to a good deal of debating: on one hand we have cuts to the abnormal costs of our politics and a tax on patrimony (which, surprisingly, even some right-wing people including the confederation of industrials agree upon - something that should hint at exactly
how much it is needed), but on the other hand are a reformation of seniority pensions and another law that should ease the possibility to fire people (short term contracts were not enough).
