election 2012

[darkrobe]

makes you want to live in Iowa doesnt it. primary decided by 8 votes.

[Belthus]

Here is a summary of head-to-head match-ups between Obama and Republican candidates. The summary is taken from averages of polls tracked by RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html).

Obama ..... 47.3 (+2.4 advantage)
Romney .... 44.9

Obama ..... 51.4 (+12.0 advantage)
Gingrich ... 39.4

Obama ..... 50.5 (+10.2 advantage)
Santorum . 40.3

Obama ..... 47.5 (+5.8 advantage)
Paul ......... 41.7

These numbers compare to the generic Republican, who currently ties with Obama, and thus the current four candidates are all underperforming results based on party identification alone.

Gingrich is currently leading in national polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html) (+3.8 over Romney), but Romney has a lead in the next primary state of Florida (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html) (+8.2 over Gingrich).

[Belthus]

According to a recent Gallup poll of 12 swing states (http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx), Romney is the only current Republican candidate who can give Obama a competitive race in the general election.



The numbers are almost identical for swing states and the country as a whole, except for Ron Paul, who does worse in swing states.

[darkrobe]

change up? rick santorum wins colorado minnesota and missouri. big night for sure in politics

[OldTrees]

change up? rick santorum wins colorado minnesota and missouri. big night for sure in politics

Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/
99 Mitt Romney
41 Newt Gingrich
39 Rick Santorum
28 Ron Paul


Question:
How can there be so much disagreement about how the Iowa delegates are divided?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_caucus
Is it 13/12/0, 11/11/3 or 7/7/7/2/2?

[Belthus]

Question:
How can there be so much disagreement about how the Iowa delegates are divided?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_caucus
Is it 13/12/0, 11/11/3 or 7/7/7/2/2?

Iowa Republican caucuses, 2012 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2012):

The Iowa Republican caucuses are a nonbinding presidential preference caucus that does not directly determine Iowa's 25 pledged delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. However, the caucus results serve as a guide for the state's Republicans" as they hold subsequent congressional district conventions and a June state party convention to actually elect their convention delegates.

I wonder what the rationale is for a nonbinding caucus or primary. I can see how later revelations about candidates might change opinions. Still, it seems a waste of voters' time to have a nonbinding caucus, after which party elites will assign the delegates.

As for Santorum's results changing the game, I am not convinced yet. Gingrich and Paul seem likely to stay in the race for a long time. The anti-Romney vote seems unable to settle on a single standard bearer.

[darkrobe]

The issue is not whether rick santorum or newt gingrich can become the nominee. I still dont see that happening. I just see it more likely that Mitt Romney wont be able reach the requisite number of delegates (and seal up his nomination) untill much later in this process than was originally envisioned. I will definitely be pulling out some popcorn and a comfy chair if these candidates have to duke it out all the way to the convention.

[Basimah119]

2012, what's new?

[darkrobe]

gingrich is on his last breath. santorums best option is to try and pretty himself up for 2016 in case mitt romney loses to obama. ron paul is still ignored. Mitt romney is trying to gather delegates while at the same time be completely invisible during the current supreme court discussions about health care and the individual mandate. and obama's latest polling has him back above 50% for who knows what.

[neuroleptics]

in any election, i wouldn't vote for party, but the representative instead.......capable of  working for the people.....voting for party would let you down...as always

[lawrenceleong888]

in any election, i wouldn't vote for party, but the representative instead.......capable of  working for the people.....voting for party would let you down...as always

In my country..I would vote for the party...because said party is entirely corrupted and even if the rep. is good...he wouldn't able to voice out and go against the entire rotten party...so no point voting for him...
And for that rotten party to get an extra one seat...it means prolonged doom for us...
Shall see things as a whole...the fate of the entire country lies on us...
Just like how the entire Penang state is managed well.. instead of u seeing partial unequal development in different places if u say the rep. plays a greater role...spotty changes or whatsoever...Then u will get complaints from certain area...but that didn't happen...

[BluePriest]

in any election, i wouldn't vote for party, but the representative instead.......capable of  working for the people.....voting for party would let you down...as always

In my country..I would vote for the party...because said party is entirely corrupted and even if the rep. is good...he wouldn't able to voice out and go against the entire rotten party...so no point voting for him...

Wait, you live  in america?