2012 GOP Primaries

[darkrobe]

Just to clarify. I officially believe that it is impossible for any other candidate other than romney to get 1144 delegates. that being said, what i was saying before is that i find it quite possible for no candidate, including romney, to get that 1144 delegates. The easiest way for that to happen is for gingrich to drop out and for santorum to win 1 or 2 winner take all states with the no longer split conservative vote. Gingrich has the stubbornness of a mule so i dont think that will happen. but romney is only strong because their are 2 "conservatives" in the race.

[darkrobe]

santorum sweeps Mississippi and Alabama. it might be a very different race come tomorrow.

[Belthus]

santorum sweeps Mississippi and Alabama. it might be a very different race come tomorrow.

I doubt it. Both races were close to being three-way ties, and the delegates in both states are split proportionally. Santorum/Gingrich/Romney got 13/11/11 delegates in Mississippi and 17/12/10 delegates in Alabama. Expectations were that this was not Romney territory, so he did better than expected. Santorum's chances are hurt by Gingrich's decision not to drop out.

[darkrobe]

Except that mit romney's campain was broadcasting only days ago that he thought he could win Alabama. the expectations were a lot higher for him than they were a few weeks ago. People expected him to at least win one due to gingrich and santorum splitting the conservative vote. They did indeed split the vote, but so many more people voted for gingrich and santorum that romney ended up in 3rd.

As for the proportionality, romney needs 1144 delegates, to do that he needs to be doing better than winning 30% of the delegates in these states.

There is still time for gingrich to be forced out. and still time for santorum to rack up wins that decrease the spread in delegates between him and romney. the fact that he is winning now considering mit romney out spends everyone like 5 to 1 is proof enough that romney cant close the deal.

[Belthus]

Hawaii and American Somoa also voted yesterday. According to the RCP count, Romney received a total of 41 delegates to Santorum's 37 yesterday. Romney has 52.8% of delegates so far, which is more reflective of the races to come than just Mississippi and Alabama. Of course, the RCP count and most others are speculative. There are many uncommitted delegates, which is why Gingrich wants to stay in. He thinks he is the best at whipping.

[UTAlan]

Santorum just dropped out. Race over?

[darkrobe]

yep. pretty much. on to the general.

[BluePriest]

yep. pretty much. on to the general.

Gingrich is in denial hoping he can pick up his supporters. Give it up already newt

[darkrobe]

well, with santorum out. he might actually win some southern states. But at this point it wont mean anything.