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Offline UTAlanTopic starter

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2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg446051#msg446051
« on: January 06, 2012, 01:20:54 am »
Quote
The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates. It takes 1,144 delegate votes to win.

-Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012)
CandidateDelegates# Needed
Mitt Romney1231,021
Newt Gengrich461,098
Rick Santorum441,100
Ron Paul361,108
(Source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries))

Upcoming Primaries
StateDate# of Delegates
Arizona28-Feb-1229
Michigan28-Feb-1230
Washington03-Mar-1243
Alaska06-Mar-1227
Georgia06-Mar-1276
Idaho06-Mar-1232
Massachusetts06-Mar-1241
North Dakota06-Mar-1228
Ohio06-Mar-1266
Oklahoma06-Mar-1243
Tennessee06-Mar-1258
Vermont06-Mar-1217
Virginia06-Mar-1249
Wyoming06-Mar-1229
Kansas10-Mar-1240
U.S. Virgin Islands10-Mar-129
Guam10-Mar-129
Alabama13-Mar-1250
American Samoa13-Mar-129
Hawaii13-Mar-1220
Mississippi13-Mar-1240
Missouri17-Mar-1252
Puerto Rico18-Mar-1223
Illinois20-Mar-1269
Louisiana24-Mar-1246
Maryland03-Apr-1237
Texas03-Apr-12155
Washington, D.C.03-Apr-1219
Wisconsin03-Apr-1242
Connecticut24-Apr-1228
Delaware24-Apr-1217
New York24-Apr-1295
Pennsylvania24-Apr-1272
Rhode Island24-Apr-1219
Indiana08-May-1246
North Carolina08-May-1255
West Virginia08-May-1231
Nebraska15-May-1235
Oregon15-May-1228
Arkansas22-May-1236
Kentucky22-May-1245
California05-Jun-12172
Montana05-Jun-1226
New Jersey05-Jun-1250
New Mexico05-Jun-1223
South Dakota05-Jun-1228
Utah26-Jun-1240
Completed Primaries
StateDate# of Delegates
Iowa03-Jan-1225
New Hampshire10-Jan-1212
South Carolina21-Jan-1225
Florida31-Jan-1250
Nevada04-Feb-1228
Maine04-Feb-1224
Colorado07-Feb-1236
Minnesota07-Feb-1240
N Mariana Islands25-Feb-129

Are you voting in a GOP Primary? If so, who do you plan to vote for? If not, who do you want to win? Why?

Offline Belthus

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg446647#msg446647
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2012, 02:57:58 pm »
I guess people are all talked out from the other thread to give this one any love.

Are you voting in a GOP Primary? If so, who do you plan to vote for? If not, who do you want to win? Why?
No, I won't be voting in a GOP primary. I would love to see Santorum win because I expect that he would lose handily in the general election. How many (outside of the Republican base) are going to vote for a guy who would like to see birth control banned (http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/01/03/396516/santorum-states-should-have-the-right-to-outlaw-birth-control/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&mobile=nc) and tells a mother of a cancer survivor that people with pre-existing conditions deserve to pay higher premiums or have their applications rejected (http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/01/06/399357/santorum-to-mother-of-cancer-survivor-sick-are-to-blame-for-their-pre-existing-conditions-insurers-should-charge-them-more/)? I bet that even many in the base are uncomfortable with such positions.

I looked up the process of Iowa's delegate assignment (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Republican_Party_process). It seems to emphasize decentralization. I am surprised that any small states would do anything other than winner-take-all. If delegate count is the main criterion, candidates would have an incentive to concentrate on winner-take-all states and settle for less than a win in states that are proportional (or roughly so, in Iowa's case). Of course, Iowa's position as the first as well as the way the media constructs a narrative based on winning states and "momentum" and other such concepts means that delegate count is not the only factor.

Offline Dragoon

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg446675#msg446675
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2012, 04:47:14 pm »
The GOP changed the rules last year so that states who hold their primaries before April 1 must use a proportional system, though from what I understand, they can still decide exactly how to implement this rule.

Quote
(2) Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.

Read more: http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presidential_nominating_process#ixzz1in9cIo4r
Personally, I’m registered as an Independent, but if I were able to vote, I’d vote for Ron Paul. I don’t agree with him on everything. But I probably agree with him more than I agree with anyone else.

Offline Belthus

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg446809#msg446809
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2012, 09:59:22 pm »
The GOP changed the rules last year so that states who hold their primaries before April 1 must use a proportional system, though from what I understand, they can still decide exactly how to implement this rule.

Quote
(2) Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.

Read more: http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presidential_nominating_process#ixzz1in9cIo4r
If you read paragraph 1 from that link [emphasis mine]:
Quote
(1) No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held.  Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (b)(2) of this rule.
Iowa's delegates are not bound by the results of the caucus.

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg446891#msg446891
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2012, 02:01:55 am »
Quote
(1) No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held.  Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (b)(2) of this rule.
I think because Iowa still had their caucus before February 1st, they had to abide by paragraph (b)(2). I think New Hampshire and South Carolina will be the same.

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg447066#msg447066
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2012, 08:18:02 pm »
poor utah. 40 delegates but about 0 ability to effect the process at all.

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448182#msg448182
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2012, 03:13:02 am »
UTAlan, I feel you. The early states have all the say in who gets nominated. Since Romney has won the first two, he has a very high chance of being the nominee. States like Texas should really have a much larger say than small states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but they don't.

About Romney, I at least appreciate that he isn't a religious extremist like Rick Santorum. All the antics of this primary so far make him seem like a very good choice. It's depressing for me, though, that the most likely scenario in the general election will be the two candidates that have received the most money from Wall Street in history will be running against each other. Obama will have no trouble painting Mitt "I like firing people" Romney (also on record saying "corporations are people") as part of the 1% if he so chooses, but I'm not sure he'd want to. I'm surprised no one has mentioned that a lot of Romney's success (and Gingrich's fall) has come from anonymously funded campaign ads. Yes, the religious wing of the Republican Party hates him, but the corporate masters want him in, and they will of course get their way.

Another thing, I like Ron Paul getting all this attention. He's marginalized to the extreme because he pushes on issues that no one in the mainstream will, though many of his positions are quite popular (except in Washington). I honestly wish he'd done better. In another world, if Ron Paul did win the nomination, it would put incredible pressure on Obama. Liberals would have to think carefully about their priorities because they'd be faced with two candidates who each ignore different foundations of liberalism. Obama might actually have to change some of his positions so as to not risk losing their support. As things stand, Obama can safely ignore his base as the Democrats will win the support of their base by telling horror stories about the GOP. I'll be voting for a third party, but most Democrats are more "pragmatic."

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448224#msg448224
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2012, 05:09:38 am »
UTAlan, I feel you. The early states have all the say in who gets nominated. Since Romney has won the first two, he has a very high chance of being the nominee. States like Texas should really have a much larger say than small states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but they don't.

About Romney, I at least appreciate that he isn't a religious extremist like Rick Santorum. All the antics of this primary so far make him seem like a very good choice. It's depressing for me, though, that the most likely scenario in the general election will be the two candidates that have received the most money from Wall Street in history will be running against each other. Obama will have no trouble painting Mitt "I like firing people" Romney (also on record saying "corporations are people") as part of the 1% if he so chooses, but I'm not sure he'd want to. I'm surprised no one has mentioned that a lot of Romney's success (and Gingrich's fall) has come from anonymously funded campaign ads. Yes, the religious wing of the Republican Party hates him, but the corporate masters want him in, and they will of course get their way.

Another thing, I like Ron Paul getting all this attention. He's marginalized to the extreme because he pushes on issues that no one in the mainstream will, though many of his positions are quite popular (except in Washington). I honestly wish he'd done better. In another world, if Ron Paul did win the nomination, it would put incredible pressure on Obama. Liberals would have to think carefully about their priorities because they'd be faced with two candidates who each ignore different foundations of liberalism. Obama might actually have to change some of his positions so as to not risk losing their support. As things stand, Obama can safely ignore his base as the Democrats will win the support of their base by telling horror stories about the GOP. I'll be voting for a third party, but most Democrats are more "pragmatic."
Currently
Romney: 7+7=14
Ron Paul: 7+3=10
Santorum: 7+0=7
Huntsman: 0+3=3
Gingrich: 2+0=2
Perry: 2+0=2
I think Ron Paul still has a good chance considering he is only 4 delegates behind.
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Offline darkrobe

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448234#msg448234
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2012, 05:31:21 am »
but can he get above 2nd place in any state? hes already said that he wont be making a major effort in important states like florida. granted he will keep up while the delegates are divided up proportionately, but I cant see him winning any major game changing states/primaries.

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448235#msg448235
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2012, 05:33:25 am »
Currently
Romney: 7+7=14
Ron Paul: 7+3=10
Santorum: 7+0=7
Huntsman: 0+3=3
Gingrich: 2+0=2
Perry: 2+0=2
I think Ron Paul still has a good chance considering he is only 4 delegates behind.
Certainly he should. The problem is that we're seeing headlines like "Romney now 2-0." How candidates do in early races tends to affect things like fundraising and those making pragmatic votes based on who actually has a chance to win. That's why many candidates often drop out early on. As much as I'm convinced that Romney will be the nominee, I hope that you're right. See darkrobe's comment above for an illustration.

On an unrelated note, here's a link to an interesting article about Ron Paul:
Paul is sole voice on unequal justice (http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2012-01-10/ron-paul-racism-crimes/52483788/1)
It would be ironic if Ron Paul were able to challenge Obama for voicing issues that affect black people. People will always look for a candidate's perceived character (eg: the infamous Ron Paul newsletters) while ignoring their actual policy positions. This is a large part of the reason government policy seems to get worse every year.

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448591#msg448591
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2012, 03:27:56 am »
Certainly he should. The problem is that we're seeing headlines like "Romney now 2-0." How candidates do in early races tends to affect things like fundraising and those making pragmatic votes based on who actually has a chance to win. That's why many candidates often drop out early on.
Focus on early races has helped, not hurt, Ron Paul. He performed better than his national poll numbers, which are around 12%.

Ron Paul is in 4th place in South Carolina (~11% vs. Romney's ~29%) and 4th place in Florida (~9% vs. Romney's ~38%). Paul differs from his party on several issues. If Paul becomes a third party candidate, he could draw enough votes from the Republican nominee to throw the election to Obama. If he himself is the nominee, many Republicans wouldn't vote for him.

Offline UTAlanTopic starter

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Re: 2012 GOP Primaries https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35435.msg448596#msg448596
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2012, 03:49:51 am »
If Paul becomes a third party candidate, he could draw enough votes from the Republican nominee to throw the election to Obama. If he himself is the nominee, many Republicans wouldn't vote for him.
He has said he won't run 3rd party if he doesn't get the nomination. Also, right or wrong, the majority of Republicans either vote straight ticket or would vote for him just to ensure Obama doesn't get re-elected.

 

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