its also worth pointing out that with probabilities this low, the standard deviation will be pretty high. That means a given person could experience what seems like a much different rate over even a fairly large number of spins. I.e. just because the probability is 3% doesn't mean you'll get 3 in 100 spins... you might get none or you might get several. I haven't crunched the numbers specifically, but I think you would probably need to do a few thousand spins to really get a good window on the average...