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Offline Zac33333

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg511980#msg511980
« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2012, 03:58:14 am »
I agree this card is expensive. Hell, 6 :water Unupped? That sucks for any non Mono/Duo.....But that's all it sucks for. Let's be real here:

Most decks that use this are either some Rainbow FG farmer, or a Water Mono/Duo (Probably Water and Death for Poison).
Your mark is water. That's one water per turn.
If the deck...you know, wants to play cards eventually, they're probably gonna be about 1/3 Pillars or Pendulums.
Say they play just 4 water pillars. And two death pendulums. That's 5 Water quanta on the first turn, and two death. Then the next turn they play two Chrysoara or Physalia. They hit space.
The third turn they have 8 Water. (5 - 2 = 3 from the Chrys, and then +5 again). They can now play the Ice Shield and another Chrysoara or Physalia. Now they have three creatures adding cumulative counters. That's not what hurts. What hurts is the fact that they have a shield that, if you have more than two creatures out, will pretty much make it IMPOSSIBLE for you to out-damage them. Thus, you are FORCED to play PC or CC. The tough part here is the decision. If you play the PC, you have a chance (But it's delayed now because your creatures are likely still frozen) to out-damage them. A small chance, because they may have now had time to play more pillars and get some CC/PC of their own now. In other words, you'd have to have HEALING, STRONG MONSTERS, and DEFENCE/PC/CC to win, and it all has to be readily available in-hand.

Now, let's see things without the Ice Shield:
The match starts, same beginning. After the opening turns, the enemy has their two or three Chrysoara or Physalia, out and ready to damage. You say, "Shit, I need some CC." While you play your monsters in hopes of out-damaging them, you come across some CC and slow their poisoning effects. You don't have to worry about any PC (Unless they have Arsenic, assuming they're  :water/ :death), and only need to put up some minor defense to survive. You may not win with EM, and you may barely win. But the way I see it, Ice Shield empowers ANY  :water Duo or Mono (Maybe even Trio if Water is the main base element) to a point where winning is so much less likely to happen.

Now, on the other hand:
If you don't have PC, or Momentum, or something of the likes -- It's your fault, don't blame the extremely tough shield. Even if it's...extremely tough. Also, most of my, and other players', argument is based on this idea: You get your Ice Shield very early (Within the first...say 5 or 6 turns?).

However, I do think that the Ice shield should be nerfed in some way because of this fact:
6 or 7  :water is nothing. After the first turn, any deck that uses Ice Shield (That isn't a rainbow) is highly likely to be able to afford half of the shield. Hell, even a rainbow that played 4 or 5 upped Quanta towers has a decent chance of being able to pay for most of the shield.

A resolve? I'd say take away the damage reduction in the un-upgraded, and only having one damage reduction in the upgraded. Again, if this shield is played early enough ,that 2 blocking can be a killer, considering most creatures low-cost enough to play early have around 4-6 attack anyway. That's turning most monsters into a joke!

And that being said, my rant is over.
That is all.

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512067#msg512067
« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2012, 11:28:05 am »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.
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Offline Zac33333

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512116#msg512116
« Reply #26 on: June 17, 2012, 03:42:58 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512120#msg512120
« Reply #27 on: June 17, 2012, 03:51:19 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

The only shield using HP as a calculation for percentage is Skull Shield. Ice Shield has a flat 30% freeze chance. Skull Shield has 1/(2*HP) chance to turn into skeleton.
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Offline Zac33333

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512122#msg512122
« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2012, 03:53:55 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

The only shield using HP as a calculation for percentage is Skull Shield. Ice Shield has a flat 30% freeze chance. Skull Shield has 1/(2*HP) chance to turn into skeleton.

There's no way! At least one of my monsters freeze EVERY TIME I attack an ice shield. And I was pretty sure it was based on monster strength.

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512123#msg512123
« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2012, 03:59:33 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

The only shield using HP as a calculation for percentage is Skull Shield. Ice Shield has a flat 30% freeze chance. Skull Shield has 1/(2*HP) chance to turn into skeleton.

There's no way! At least one of my monsters freeze EVERY TIME I attack an ice shield. And I was pretty sure it was based on monster strength.
It is 30%. People tend to remember the times they get screwed over more then when they don't.
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Offline Zac33333

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512125#msg512125
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2012, 04:01:26 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

The only shield using HP as a calculation for percentage is Skull Shield. Ice Shield has a flat 30% freeze chance. Skull Shield has 1/(2*HP) chance to turn into skeleton.

There's no way! At least one of my monsters freeze EVERY TIME I attack an ice shield. And I was pretty sure it was based on monster strength.
It is 30%. People tend to remember the times they get screwed over more then when they don't.

While that's true, I literally have never fought an Ice shield without being frozen.

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512227#msg512227
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2012, 09:24:51 pm »
Huh? 30% chance is not that big lmao, considering the opponents creatures won't be that fast.
It's easy to outrush a deck like that, as the best version is actually using freeze instead of shield lol.


Compare it with Dim shield if you don't have PC, as you assumed you have no PC or momentum.

It's not 30%, it's based on your monster's HP. Your weaker monsters are much more likely to frozen.

The only shield using HP as a calculation for percentage is Skull Shield. Ice Shield has a flat 30% freeze chance. Skull Shield has 1/(2*HP) chance to turn into skeleton.

There's no way! At least one of my monsters freeze EVERY TIME I attack an ice shield. And I was pretty sure it was based on monster strength.
It is 30%. People tend to remember the times they get screwed over more then when they don't.

While that's true, I literally have never fought an Ice shield without being frozen.
It is 30% chance to be frozen for 3 turns. This translates to an average of 2/3s of your creatures being frozen each turn. Add in the cognitive biases and it would be easy to never remember a creature attacking without being frozen.
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Offline Tirear

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512233#msg512233
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2012, 09:55:31 pm »

It is 30% chance to be frozen for 3 turns. This translates to an average of 2/3s of your creatures being frozen each turn. Add in the cognitive biases and it would be easy to never remember a creature attacking without being frozen.

2/3? Are you sure about that? My calculations say that a creature should be frozen 9/19 of the time on average, or just under half the time.

EDIT: 9 is LESS then half of 19, durr
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 12:35:18 am by Tirear »

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512255#msg512255
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2012, 11:28:45 pm »

It is 30% chance to be frozen for 3 turns. This translates to an average of 2/3s of your creatures being frozen each turn. Add in the cognitive biases and it would be easy to never remember a creature attacking without being frozen.

2/3? Are you sure about that? My calculations say that a creature should be frozen 9/19 of the time on average, or just over half the time.
The amount of creatures frozen supposedly approaches 2/3rds as the turns increase towards infinity. I did not do any calculations myself, merely repost old data. How are you arriving at 9/19?
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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512257#msg512257
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2012, 11:49:55 pm »

It is 30% chance to be frozen for 3 turns. This translates to an average of 2/3s of your creatures being frozen each turn. Add in the cognitive biases and it would be easy to never remember a creature attacking without being frozen.

2/3? Are you sure about that? My calculations say that a creature should be frozen 9/19 of the time on average, or just under half the time.
The amount of creatures frozen supposedly approaches 2/3rds as the turns increase towards infinity. I did not do any calculations myself, merely repost old data. How are you arriving at 9/19?

First, we define n as the number of turns the games lasts (starting from when both the creature and shield are in play), and f as the number of turns our creature spends frozen. Then, the number of turns our creature spends unfrozen is (n-f). On average, the creature will be frozen .3 * (n-f) times. Ignoring the possibility of the game ending while the creature is still frozen (partly because this means less as the length of the game increases, and also because the same thing happens with procrastination shield), the creature will therefore spend 3 * .3 * (n-f) turns frozen.
f = 3 * .3 * (n-f)
f = .9 * (n-f)
f = .9 * n - .9 * f
1.9 * f = .9 * n
f = (.9/1.9) * n
f = (9/19) * n

Also, on page 2 of this thread, I saw that ARTHANASIOS claimed about half will be frozen at any time in a sufficiently long duel, and you quoted him without disputing it, so I am guessing that  you just misremembered the number you were re-posting.

EDIT: I did some searching for stats on ice shield, and found that everyone has their own way of solving this problem (and mine seems to be the least easy to understand), but all the ones I saw got the same answer. Here is the oldest attempt I could find, from over two years ago.
Double cheking the digits water man is correct and 57% seems very conclusive ;D
Permafrost shield freezes creatures for three turns, 30% of the time (on average).
The freeze starts just after the attack, and ends just after an attack opportunity.
That means
  • a critter misses 3 attacks every time it gets frozen
  • a critter gets frozen (on average) 3 times for 10 successful attacks.
10 attacks + 3*3 turns frozen = 19 turns to do 10 turns worth of damage, or 9 of 19 attacks blocked. 9/19 = 47%.

If it had frozen critters before they did their damage, that would be 7 attacks in 16 turns (56% blocked), but it doesn't.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 12:45:44 am by Tirear »

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Re: Ice Shield | Permafrost Shield https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=39689.msg512297#msg512297
« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2012, 02:55:04 am »
The quoted proof is clearer. The percentage ramps up towards 9/19.

1st turn
1[0]
2nd turn
.3[1] + .7[0]
3rd turn
.3[2] + .7(.3)[1] + .7(.7)[0]
4th turn
.3[3] + .7(.3)[2] + .7(.7)(.3)[1] + .7(.7)(.7)[0]
5th turn
.3[3] + .7(.3)[3] + .7(.7)(.3)[2] + .7(.7)(.7)(.3)[1] + .7(.7)(.7)(.7)[0]
6th turn
.3(.3)[4] + .7(.3)[3] + .7(.3)[3] + .7(.7)(.3)[3] + .7(.7)(.7)(.3)[2] + .7(.7)(.7)(.7)(.3)[1] + .7(.7)(.7)(.7)(.7)[0]
...
A single creature will be frozen for
Turns exposed to Ice Shield1234567
Percentage of turns frozen00.150.270.366750.385380.3971690.410778
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 02:57:09 am by OldTrees »
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