Use the code in my post on page 24. Actually, Dim shield at 30
is still about as good as dusk shield (actually slightly better). With more pillars and fewer creatures it can do more damage to a pure rush opponent. I used 20 pillars and 4 creatures for 3 turn 30 quanta dim shield, and it was slightly better than 15 pillar, 12 creature, 3 dusk shield. ![Shocked :o](https://elementscommunity.org/forum/Smileys/solosmileys/shocked.gif)
With only 4 creatures in a 30 card deck, what fraction of the time does it deckout?
Did you attribute half of the deckouts as losses?
The comparison is solely based on damage dealt to an effectively infinite-HP opponent. The decks are 30 cards. So if the dim shield deck decks out before dealing 100 damage, that only reduces its average damage. Since its average damage is significantly above 100, this isn't the common case. You have a good point though; while the dim shield deck may have the capacity to deal a lot more damage than the dusk shield deck over 23 turns, it may not be as reliable. So the dim shield deck may sometimes deal 50 damage when it only draws 1 creature in the first 20 cards, but compensate by dealing 300 damage in other games where it gets its creatures early enough.
I would say however, that dim shield has the property of lengthening games, which makes it inherently more consistent than dusk shield. And there is always the possibility of drawing 2 or more dusk shields before being killed on turn 11.
It might be interesting to see what the median damage of the dim shield 30 deck is.
All of this, of course, is ignoring that we will never have a dim shield that costs 30
![Aether :aether](https://elementscommunity.org/forum/Smileys/solosmileys/../../../images/Misc/aether18x18.png)
, simply because it is unaesthetic. I believe the simulations illustrate that correcting the cost of the dim shield is not the right approach to nerfing the card.
Edit:
I went ahead and calculated the win percentage (how many times out of 10000 the decks dealt 100 damage to the opponent). The dusk shield deck is significantly more reliable than the dim shield 30 deck.
Here is a table of win-percentage results (each based on 10000 games):
Deck | Aprx. Win % |
3 Dusk shield (12 creatures) | 61 |
3 Dusk shield (11 creatures) | 62 |
3 Dusk shield (10 creatures) | 62 |
3 Dusk shield (9 creatures) | 57 |
6 Dim shield 6 (9 creatures) | 92 |
3 Dim shield 6 (12 creatures) | 82 |
6 Dim shield 10 (7 creatures) | 81 |
6 Dim shield 20 (5 creatures) | 71 |
6 Dim shield 20 (4 creatures) | 78 |
6 Dim shield 20 (3 creatures) | 78 |
6 Dim shield 25 (4 creatures) | 64 |
6 Dim shield 25 (3 creatures) | 68 |
6 Dim shield 30 (4 creatures) | 43 |
6 Dim shield 30 (3 creatures) | 51 |
5 Dim shield 30 (3 creatures) | 43 |
6 Dim shield 30 (2 creatures) | 44 |
I also ran it so that I could see a distribution of the damage dealt. The dim shield 30 deck has a peak at 45 damage dealt. This happens in roughly 10% of the games. It has smaller peaks at 100 damage dealt, and 225 damage dealt. I'm not sure what the significance of the peaks are.