Ok, here's my thoughts:
GENERAL OVERVIEW:As AK said, the most important thing we need to do this round is to manage our Vault. Cut loose ends, convert and salvage what's needed and get the Vault up and running for the rest of the War.
The Event card is nice, but not really determinant. I say we go with Rush too, as winning within 13 turns is very doable on a good matchup, while decking people out is... difficult. To say the least.
What is intresting of the Event card is the potential change in strategy it will bring. As I think most War teams are savvy enough to just go ahead and ignore its miserable potential profit, I expect no change, but it is
slightly more possible to run into deckers this round from some teams. Which means a couple random Mitosis can turn the table.
As far as matchups are concerned, we have a mix and mash of opponents, some of whom are not really predictable. Earth, Air and Gravity are running some pretty strange decks this War. Also, a good analysis of their actual Vault can be done now since we have seen about 300ish cards from it, and some of the rest are bound to be leftover pillars / pendulums.
Regarding player order, change it now before we forget again. Change it back later if LL manages to find a power cord.
S/D/C:Salvages: we have to salvage from these decks.
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4vc 4vc 4vd 4vf 4vf 4vl 4vl 4vn 4vo 50u 50u 50u 5oc 5oc 5od 5od 5of 5og 5oi 5ol 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 5pu 6u7 6u9 7mv 8pjHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5oo 5oo 5oo 5oo 5oo 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5ro 5ro 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5s4 5s4 5t2 5t2 5t2 7q0 7qc 7ri 8prHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5ld 5ld 5ld 5lf 5lf 5lf 5lf 5ll 5ll 5ll 5ll 5ll 5up 5up 5ur 5v1 606 606 606 606 606 606 606 606 7n2 7n2 7n2 7tb 7tb 7tb 8pqThe cards I believe we should keep are the following:
3 Flying Weapons, 3 Crusaders. A backup for the Monk deck that will still be able to take a loss (saving 6-8 cards from it, plus our leftover Sanctuaries, Staves, Adrenalines, Crusaders, Animates). It also opens up the possibility to play TWO Monk decks in a given round (which might not be that stupid in some instances) AND the possibility to run a full-fledged Adrenastaves deck if need arises (which is a pain for some matchups) AND the possibility to use both the Monk and the strange discordbow Will planned in the same round (Flying Weapon would have clashed otherwise). Also, Crusaders are a very versatile card that can be a killer in weapon-based matchups (accelerated Titans, any Gravity shield-based deck, Sader, FW decks in general).
We should convert the rest, IMO.
Discards:
We have to discard from these decks:
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5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5bt 5bt 5bt 5bu 5bu 5c9 5c9 5c5 5c5 5oo 5oo 5oo 5oo 5oo 7ae 7ae 7ae 8prHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5de 5de 5de 5de 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c2 5c2 5c2 52o 52o 52o 52o 52o 52o 7ak 71a 71a 8pkHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5bs 5bs 5bs 5de 5de 5de 5c1 5c1 5c7 5c7 5c7 5c7 5c7 61q 5og 52q 52q 590 590 590 590 590 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 7ae 7ae 7dm 8pmHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5bs 5bs 5bs 5bs 5bt 5bt 5bt 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c2 5c2 5c4 5de 5de 5de 5de 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5ro 5ro 7bu 7bu 7bu 8psHover over cards for details, click for permalink
5c5 5c5 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 622 622 622 622 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7bu 7bu 7bu 8puIf we discard all those quanta sources we'll be in the following situation: 11 Pillars, 26 Pendulums, 15 off-element quanta sources.
To reliably field 7 decks we need around 91-105 quanta sources (13-15 per deck). With full 24 conversion, we get 76 Life sources + 15 off-element sources, which is manageable. We have 12 conversion easily with the proposed salvage, so we will probably need to destroy one more deck. However, if we keep some pillars / pends from the matches we lost, this becomes ignorable.
The discard I would personally do is the following:
- from Frogtal, it depends from Will's and AK's judgement. If it is still viable with 3 Dims, or 4 Dims 3 Fractals, I say we keep it (it's going to be a very good weapon in our arsenal later in War, especially if we can bring it in with surprise effect). Especially so if we manage to kill an Aether deck, salvaging Dims or Fractals to complete it, but I wouldn't count on this (it's more like an added bonus).
If this isn't viable, then I think we should keep the Dims and a pillar. A 6x Dim Shield deck can win a favourable matchup even if the rest is crap.
- from Death duo, it's probably safe to keep just pillars and pendulums. Poison and Arsenic are strong, but I don't think they are that dominant.
- from the Grabbow, I think we should keep Novas. First reason: the strange Denial Bow will planned. Second reason: grabbow salvages and vault scraps combined. Third reason: Discord counter.
- from the RT deck, pillars.
- from the Wings deck, pillars.
With the above solution, we are at 19 Pillars, 50 Pendulums (we can finetune this easily, it's 69 Life sources anyway) + 15 off element pillars / pends, 84 quanta cards total. Plus 5 novas.
So, with 12 more pillars from conversion, we'd be at 96 quanta cards, 15 of which are off-element.
I think we should convert the Earth stall, as it is pretty much dead now. It's 6 Stone Skins and 2 Enchant Artifacts. And along with them the 3 earth pillars. Converting one more card (a staff?) we are at 93 quanta sources, with 12 off-element. Which are enough to field 7 decks, one being a stall, one being a novabow.
Problems with this solution (easily seen by our Vault, which I used to tinker around the numbers with more ease as the tool is wonderful - you should try it too!):
- 3 Frogs. THREE FROGS left in Vault. Which sucks, considering the 8 Carapaces and 12 Staves.
- 6 Dragons and 6 Cockatrices too. -.-
- 143 Life cards all around. 253 cards total. Barely half.
If somebody has a better plan (possibly involving more Frog powah)...
DECKS IN OUR VAULT:1-2 Monk decks.
1 Denialbow.
1 BH splash (for UW).
1 Adrenavamps.
1 Discord Duo.
1 Lightning Splash.
1 Dim Shield Splash.
1 Firestall.
1 Water Duo.
Of course, denialbow requires no second Monk deck and no BH splash, while the splashes require a good offensive combination from our Life cards... which we mostly LACK.
So we will need to field the following:
Adrenavamps
Monk #1
Firestall
Water Duo
Discord Duo with Scorpions
The rest is likely to need some serious planning, since we likely lack the needed offense to support three whole splash decks. If we cover up three more Frogs, we can field an Adrenafrog and a Cockatrice + Dragons deck. We might want to go with a full fledged aether duo with MitoDragons and the Denialbow with mixed Cockatrices and Frogs.
MATCHUPS:General Will vs Entropy:
used two novabow denial decks in the first round. Then, in the second round, fielded three novabow denial decks and a DBH deck, three MonoDiscord decks (one with RT splash), and the odd Pandebonium. They won a lot and are a top team.
NURF DISCORD!!!!! we need a denial counter, that works for both grabbybows and monoentropy decks. Needs a bit of testing against our decks... and let's hope those decks don't counter our whole vault. -.-
Lt AK vs Air:
used a strange FractalFly Hope deck and mostly "what works". Definition of "what works" in my personal vocabulary: "take a random strong element, splash their best cards in a duo and mix it up with strong CC, strong creatures, Haxx Shield and the menace of Wings stalling". They used a Firestall, but that deck is gone and they can't salvage it in any possible way with 24 discards. They used a Spider deck, and that might come back as they are likely to have some backup (it's a strong deck). They used a Fire duo with Phoenixes and Deflags. They used an Entropy duo with Discord and Antimatter. They used an Air deck with RT splash. They used a grabbow. They used a Darkness duo with Devourers and Steals and Vampires. They are definitely using "what works". Which means they are NOT predictable and that we need to use "what works" too. They will plan around Firestall this time, but I think they won't bring a direct counter. The best option is to use a strong deck with some options against Firestall. Due to Wings deficiency, they might bring Wings now that we are weakened, but will want a way around Adrenavamps. I predict Phoenix + Deflag deck here: Phoenixes vs Firestall, Deflags for Cloaks, Fahrenheit, maybe something else, some Wings to cover from creature spam and some Shockwaves to kill the vamps. That's what I'd do at least.
Isei vs Lt Light:
is a tough one. Blessed Peggy, Vader Sader, Momentum Duo, RoL Hope, Squid Duo, Firestall, MonoDragon Spam, PU Dragons... Very dangerous. I think they won't expect a denial deck from us, though, and that might throw them off. Unfortunately our denial deck is planned for Lt+, so... :-/
Me vs Earth:
is the leading team, and rightfully so. They surprised everyone with very creative decks. Wings stall and the weirdest Pulvybow I ever saw in Round 1, The Immortal, Novagrabbies, "what works" and Wings counters in Round 2. They are well prepared. They hit us expecting Wings and they hit us with strong shields. I expect a grabbow this time, since our Wings deck is beaten and we had a bad start (grabbows > most weakened teams). Another strong option against us is The Immortal, since our surviving decks from last round can't really beat it but might be tweaked to beat a grabbow (no, Firestall doesn't beat the Immortal anymore. Quanta cap. .-.).
Noobie vs Death:
Stalls, stalls, even more stalls. Oh yeah, and some good rushes with poison too. -.- A pain to counter these guys, but I think they will try to stall us. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be said here: earth stalls, wings stalls, light stalls, pandebonium, death rushes, grabbows... they have pretty much everything they need to tear us apart.
LL vs Gravity:
They have some BAD stalls, that lost miserably. They tried hard to work in War, but face it: Gravity is less powerful than most other elements. Most problematic decks are CataTitans, DBH and Grabbows. If we manage to answer all these decks, we're pretty much sure to win.
pika vs Aether:
I think pika and will are best suited for this analysis, but I will point out that Aether's decks aren't changed much from last War, from what I saw.
EDIT: a possible combination is this:
Firestall vs
Lightning Splash vs
Adrenavamps vs
DenialBow vs
(?)
Water Duo vs
Monk vs
(??)
...Mono Adrenarush vs
???
I like Firestall vs
as they are likely to try and stall us. I like Water Duo vs
, as they aren't packing heavy CC and growing creatures + Squids can really kill some of their decks. We might want purify vs death, though.
Lightning splash vs Gravity should take care of Grabbybows and MitoDragons vs stalls + Lightning for Gravity Shield stops their stalls. Doesn't really answer DBH or CataTitans... I thought of Adrenavamps too as Steals take care of Catapults or DimShields and healing can counter grabbows... but it should be tested and more importantly, it still dies to DBH and I wouldn't know what to use vs
.
I don't know if the Monk deck is any kind of useful against
, and will test in the next few days. I'm also skeptic at playing DenialBow vs
. And finally, I suggested Mono Adrenarush for Will, since he is able to play with 9 upped quanta sources to counter Discord. We might want to splash something off of mark in there, but I will leave it to our General.
