Spotty Dog in Arena Spin?

[Vindilos]

I added a cow to 5, 8 & 9 aswell. There was also 1 in 11 and in the decks mentioned earlier.

[ARTHANASIOS]

I added a cow to 5, 8 & 9 aswell. There was also 1 in 11 and in the decks mentioned earlier.

+rep

[Manuel]

after 150 matches in silver:

found 3 vindi's alts
0 cows
lot of 

one alt every 50 matches isn't so bad, it's definitely possible get the cow

[dragonsdemesne]

OOh, he's active on the forums :p  I'll definitely have to do more silver in the future

[moehrpi]

I'll also add my stats, since I seem to be the person with the most time to waste at hand.

Earned score: 350k
Played games: 7k ?
Time played: 23 hours ?
Win rate : 75% ?
Games against accounts with Moo: 104 (97-7)
Spins with Moo: 17
Moos won: 0

Chance to win Moo with p=0.05:
   in 10 games: 40%
   in 20 games: 65%

[phoenix1211]

What's p? Probability of winning Moo in one spin? Why's it 5%?

[moehrpi]

What's p? Probability of winning Moo in one spin? Why's it 5%?

Taken from Game Rules point three.

You're right it's per spin, not per game, as I mistakenly wrote.

[phoenix1211]

I'm not sure about that actually - it sounds vague. Doesn't say if it's the probability of winning a specific card, or any card. Also, shouldn't the probability depend on the number of copies of the card in the deck?

[Vindilos]

I made Vindi_NL12, with a holy cow in its bronze deck. Also my main account Vindilos is playing with 6 holy cows in plat. Holy cows are its main source of damage.

[kaempfer13]

What's p? Probability of winning Moo in one spin? Why's it 5%?

Taken from Game Rules point three.

You're right it's per spin, not per game, as I mistakenly wrote.

Unfortunately, it's the chance to win any card, you'd have to divide moos by number of nonpillar cards in the deck on top of it.

Spoiler for the odds:

I have no source, but it makes sense, this is what I was once told how spins work: For each spin randomly select any card of the deck 4 times; if that card is a pillar reroll up to 18 times (lets simplify this to pillars not being spinnable, though it does happen rarely). If there is one moo in 20 nonpillar cards there is about  1/5th chance to get one in the 4 preselected cards. These 4 cards have an equal chance to appear in each of the 3 pictures (which is why having multiples of the card in preselection greatly increases the odds, its crazy unlikely to happen for just 1 copy in deck though). so you have a 1/4^3 chance of getting it, if holy cow made it into the preselection once. We end in a 1/320 chance per spin to win one. Seeing a cow is roughly 50 times more likely however.

[Manuel]

Win rate : 75% ?

wait what deck are u using? after 200 games with this

Spoiler for Hidden:

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 6rl 786 786 786 786 786 786 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 816 816 816 816 816 816 8pm

i lost something like 3 matches and em'd probably 95% of decks with 1 hp

[moehrpi]

Win rate : 75% ?

wait what deck are u using? after 200 games with this

Spoiler for Hidden:

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 6rl 786 786 786 786 786 786 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 816 816 816 816 816 816 8pm

i lost something like 3 matches and em'd probably 95% of decks with 1 hp

I only play decks with up to ~20 HP. The purpose is to get a very high amount of games in. Earned score however is misleading when you don't include this detail.

Why not SoFree but SoPa?

@kaempfer: I figured that estimate is way off. It should be 4% (1^-5) for a deck with only single copies. This is for 5 instead of 4 pre-selected cards per spin though. I only roughly remember the mechanics from reading them some time ago. The numbers that stuck to my head were 5 (which makes sense) and 50 (dunno) respectively. Sorry, I'm too lazy to look it up but at least have the odds for 5 pre-selected cards: 1/625. Thanks for doing the math!