Invisible Pink Unicorn
This is a response to a very specific argument, not a blanket statement.
I believe the original argument, as made by Bertrand Russell, was that he could not prove there was not a teapot orbiting Mars, yet this was not convincing evidence in favor of the teapot being there.
What every form of this argument invariably uses as an analogy is something silly, that no one would ever believe. What I have pointed out is that these are vastly flawed analogies.
I would like to continue this discussion because this argument helped confirm my ideas about religion and helped me to develop opinions on other aspects of life. My original conversion came from a thought experiment that I will try to boil down to the essential: "How can a just supreme being provide so many different valid paths when only one is correct, and choosing wrong leads to eternal torment?" I freely welcome debate on either of these two arguments.
Invisible Pink UnicornUnless I missed it, the only response provided to this argument is an appeal to popular opinion as Innominate has pointed out.
Many different religions, only one can be correctI am not familiar with the "official" name for this argument or have the proper analogy off-hand but I will give you my account.
If you are familiar with the game show Deal or No Deal this will be rather easy to follow. The "reward" for following mono-theistic religions is entry into Heaven and this can be symbolized by the case that has the million dollars in it. In this analogy each case you can pick is a different religion and only one can contain the $$, for there can only be one objective truth. However, unlike the game show, if you choose incorrectly instead of going home with a consolation prize or nothing at all, you will actually receive a punishment in the form of eternal torment. This analogy is not perfect, of course, because some religions do not have a heavenly reward or hellish punishment for following their creed. In some religions, you may be reincarnated as a roach, cow, or an enlightened individual depending on how close you follow their religious path. What I am trying to illustrate is that for almost all religions if you pick their case you will have a generally good outcome, where as if you don't you will have a generally bad outcome.
When playing the game there is no way to decipher which case holds the $$. What you have before you are rows of exactly identical cases. The only difference between them are numbers used for naming your selection. Only after opening a case will you know if you made the right decision. When choosing religions it is the same way. Each religion has its holy book, historical accounts, wizened elders, and masses of followers. They each may argue that their book is older, or their followers more numerous or more intelligent, but each also say that there is no way to prove theirs does or does not contain the $$. Because of this until you have chosen a path, walked it, and finished your mortal life you will never know if you were correct in your beliefs.
How do contestants on Deal or No Deal pick the right case? Luck. How do you pick the correct religion? Luck.
I say, if there was a creator that based the outcome of your afterlife on luck, then that is a vile creature not worth consideration, let alone worship.