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General Discussion / Mulling Over the Mulligan
« on: March 19, 2010, 05:36:31 pm »
The auto-mulligan currently in testing has some notable effect on how you might chose to tune your deck. I came up with some numbers to adjust for the change.
The mulligan only draws one extra time, so while it won't pump your deck for pillars, it squares your chances of drawing none (which is good!). I've created a chart showing your chances of drawing a nil hand (no pillars) based on your deck size and pillar count:
[/li] 6 pillars (16.4%->2.6%)[/li] 7 pillars (12.7%->1.6%)[/li] 8 pillars (8.8%->.8%)[/li] 9 pillars (5.4%->.3%)[/li] 10 pillars (4.6%->.2%)[/li][/list]
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[/li] 6 pillars (29.1%->8.4%)[/li] 8 pillars (18.1%->3.2%)[/li] 10 pillars (9.6%->.9%)[/li] 12 pillars (6.1%->.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (2.9%-> .01%)[/li][/list]
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[/li] 10 pillars (18.7%->3.4%)[/li] 12 pillars (11.7%->1.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (8.4%->.7%%)[/li] 16 pillars (4.4%->.2%)[/li] 18 pillars (3.6%->.1%)[/li][/list]
Some things to keep in mind:
Wu Li out.
The mulligan only draws one extra time, so while it won't pump your deck for pillars, it squares your chances of drawing none (which is good!). I've created a chart showing your chances of drawing a nil hand (no pillars) based on your deck size and pillar count:
[/li] 6 pillars (16.4%->2.6%)[/li] 7 pillars (12.7%->1.6%)[/li] 8 pillars (8.8%->.8%)[/li] 9 pillars (5.4%->.3%)[/li] 10 pillars (4.6%->.2%)[/li][/list]
---
[/li] 6 pillars (29.1%->8.4%)[/li] 8 pillars (18.1%->3.2%)[/li] 10 pillars (9.6%->.9%)[/li] 12 pillars (6.1%->.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (2.9%-> .01%)[/li][/list]
---
[/li] 10 pillars (18.7%->3.4%)[/li] 12 pillars (11.7%->1.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (8.4%->.7%%)[/li] 16 pillars (4.4%->.2%)[/li] 18 pillars (3.6%->.1%)[/li][/list]
Some things to keep in mind:
- The mulligan does *not* increase your chances of drawing pillars after the opening hand. Therefore it affects decks that need very few pillars much more than high quanta decks.[/li] It only helps you draw 0 pillars less often, and it doesn't help you to get more than 1.[/li] Other cards that cost no quanta (photons, sundials, unupgraded novas, etc) count as a playable card as far as the mulligan is concerned. If you draw one of these and no pillars, you don't get a free redraw.[/li]
Wu Li out.