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Messages - Skydaemon (422)

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49
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 10:42:24 pm »
Quote from: nilsieboy link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg282153#msg282153 date=1296837270
go ahead and lynch me shantu, i'm innocent and rav knows,
why don't i post a lot? if i wanna tell something i'll post it, i'm not going to post just to look smart ;).

Quote from: RavingRabbid link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg282142#msg282142 date=1296836081
Also, I can tell you for sure that nilsieboy is innocent.
Being joined to raving at the hip is a bad thing to be just now.

If nilsieboy has a great defense, this would be the time to share it.

50
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 10:37:21 pm »
nislieboy-2(1world24, Skydaemon)

That's a good point, didn't raving say he knew nilsieboy was innocent?  Placing my vote there while I go search for that quote.

51
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 10:25:24 pm »
Ooh raving an FG.  Egads.

Italian DOES = mafia.  I knew it.

52
That's really cool.  Too bad this wasn't around before the design an FG contest.

53
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 10:14:20 pm »
Note that quantum forgot to increment the count of people on raving, it ought to be 7.

54
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 08:42:51 pm »
Am I wrong in thinking the day should've ended by now?

55
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 02:35:10 am »
Voting wise, the only suspcious part is not voting this round so far.  The bonus is big enough we could fairly easily identify the vulture if they vote now.  That's all.

As for your points about self-targetting.  That's completely true.  If that's what happened here I think we're in big trouble already.  Your point has merit.  However, the odds are in our favor based purely on when he was picked.  (At the beginning of a mafia game, the odds are you'll lynch an innocent, but also that if you pick one single person to trust, they'll be innocent as well.)

However, if we made a mistake on world, that can still be fixed in a round or two if we suddenly get suspicious.  If world is innocent, FG's will probably knock him off anyway, as it's not good to have "known" innocents running around who are coordinating ability usages and will never be lynched. 

In the meantime, we have this round and next to kill the vulture if we can't trust him.  If it turns out the vulture is an FG, it's game over after that point.  Even if we're wrong about it, it's still good risk management.  My targetting of you is mainly because of your suspected role and how potentially dangerous it makes you, combined with my inability to rule you out as an FG.  I don't know how to prove you're safe at this point, and I think a vulture is a more immediate threat than world.

Again, I admit there is little backing this.  But I can't accurately finger an FG right now, and risk management is the next best thing.

56
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 01:53:58 am »
Just doing some calc's here.  I think after this day is 11 people will be dead, with probably 2 FGs remaining.

If one of those FGs is a vulture then his vote will be worth 5.5 votes.  That's 6.5 votes between the two of them, with 9 civy's remaining.  I think that puts them within one round of winning the game if they manage to kill 7wave (con artist).


57
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 01:45:54 am »
I know quantumT had his reasons.  But, I suspect you're a vulture due to voting patterns of not only you, but of appawesome as well (he is probably the liar).

So why would a vulture not be eager to vote - because by voting his power might be discovered since it becomes increasingly hard to hide.  It's fairly easy to determine who it is if he's voting.

FG scenario:
Delaying gives the vulture a powerful vote, which if you're an FG means you can auto-win the game if you ever get to a point where you and the other FG have the vote power to control lynchings.  A time not far off.
Civy scenario:
Delaying gives a powerful vote, which means you can control lynchings, but FGs can still knock you off whenever they want, which means you can only use it once before they take you out.

In other words, it's not terribly beneficial for a civy to hide their vote until it was too late, but it is potentially a game-winner for an FG to do that.  Especially if you manage to knock off the con artist (probably 7wave until he gets traded).

I also can't think of a reason why delaying benefits civy's overall.  Operating in the dark means FGs know the important info (who they are and what they can do), and civy's can't combine their skill usage.  I don't think delaying helps civy's.  Granted world could be a really clever FG, but I think we've lost if that is true already anyway.  Given that civys benefit from skill sharing more than FGs, I still see it as a good choice.

There would be a real danger if our important roles like gambler and priest etc were still unknown, but at this point there aren't a lot of dangerous roles to an FG.  If they couldn't locate the doctor, their next best choice is to kill off the vulture (to give them hope of shifting a lynching).

So, killing QuantumT removes a potential game winner for FGs if he's on their side.  Tells us QuantumT's role even if he is a civy (giving us almost complete info), and allows us to combine our skill usage.

The danger of allowing an FG vulture to gain in power outweighs the danger of everyone's secondary role being known at this point.  A couple of rounds and a con artist kill by FGs and they'd be unstoppable if they had a vulture.

58
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 06, 2011, 12:50:35 am »
BTW shining, I tried to send you a pm when I was changing my vote, but your inbox is full.  Would be a good idea to empty that before the day ends.

Anyway, as for my vote above, I was thinking given the missing roles and quantumt's attempt to delay the sharing of roles probably means he's both an FG and a vulture.  Plus, killing him teaches us his role even if I'm wrong about that.

59
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 05, 2011, 11:52:30 pm »
Since targetting majofa doesn't tell us anything I'm changing my vote and suggest others do the same away from majofa this round.

Skydaemon - 1 (majofa)
Shantu - 2 (Terroking, nilsieboy)
majofa - 3 (RavingRabbid, Shantu, ShiningSword)
RavingRabbid - 2 (Kakerlake, 1world24)
QuantumT- 1 (Skydaemon)

60
Forum Game Archive / Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!
« on: February 05, 2011, 11:35:26 pm »
The list of unknown roles:

liar 1
con artist 1
vulture 1

The list of people who haven't declared roles to world (and haven't declared elsewhere like forums):

appawesome
7wavemaster
Quantumt

Not a long list.

//edit - updated removing majofa

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