Guest posts by Selenbrant

301

In-game Troubleshooting / Re: Top 50

« on: June 18, 2010, 12:36:33 pm »

For me it happens 100% if I am not doing anything in the game for about 30min or more. The AI1,2,3,5, FG´s are all working, but T50 not. If I refresh the page it works again.

302

General Discussion / Re: Hah! First Shard!

« on: June 18, 2010, 12:20:16 pm »

Cant Remember, but I guess SoG, because its the most common.
At least you win so much of them in T50, but as soon as you already have 6 they are practically worthless(5 gold).

303

General Discussion / Re: What Do You Listen to While Playing Elements?

« on: June 18, 2010, 12:08:24 pm »

All kinds of german punk and fun-punk:
The Wohlstandskinder
Die Ärzte
WIZO
Terrorgruppe
Farin Urlaub RT
Slime
....
A really great song is "Raum der Zeit" (Space of Time), if you are able to understand german.

304

Game Suggestions and Feedback / Re: Protect Artifact should be like Animate weapon! (other quanta when upped)

« on: June 18, 2010, 11:54:46 am »

An idea strikes me... Is it really an advantage for  having PA? I dont think so, at least I dont use perms(except pillars) and in the rush decks that are possible with  PA will slow you down. I think the only use for  having PA is to save your pillars against a other  deck, but then both will have the problem.
Its similar to Quintessence, the use for itself is limited.
OK, without random Quanta no monodeck will use this cards, because  and  dont really need and the other elements cant.( I dont want to say, that there arnt  and  mono using this cards)

305

Game Suggestions and Feedback / Re: For which mark should new cards be created!

« on: June 18, 2010, 11:38:29 am »

 , because it has the fewest cards, independent of the stratetic options. For me the vote seems too scattered, 5-10% more for a certain element isnt really clear, but it cant be helped if some people vote for their favourite element, but too all element could need new cards.

306

Tutorials / Re: Draw Chance

« on: June 18, 2010, 11:23:50 am »

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,7893.0.html

I actually think we're probably all using the same formula to get the same answers, but that table puts it nicely too.  I was almost envisioning a 3D graph with the x axis being the number of cards wanted included in the deck, the y axis being the number of cards in the deck, and the z axis being the number of that card wanted in a hand...

Are you able to do this? I cant... . My knowledge in informatics is too limited. I elected mechanical engeneering and maths as advanced courses. But at least I can take the work typing all this numbers on. Too I guess for pillars it can be more intersting to know the chance getting at least 3 or 4.(I know about the QI and the QI is working pretty well, but it could be a nice addition)
Should I add some further tables? Tables are so cute. 

Actually, I'm calculating for "At least 1," (I should edit that in), and you're right that the "-1" isn't needed.

Ohh, sorry, I thought I read "exactly 1" or rather I misinterpreted your sentence:

So if I had six precognitions in a 30 card deck, and I wanted one in my hand of seven, then the probability would be:

307

Tutorials / Re: Draw Chance

« on: June 18, 2010, 12:20:37 am »

Ok, I cant help but calculating it...
For p(X>0) I didnt need hypergeometric, but for p(X=1).

My tables says for c=6, d=7 and t=30: 83,00(82,999)
I used hypergeometric..

p(X=1)	39,669
p(X=2)	+31,317
p(X=3)	+10,439
p(X=4)	+1,491
p(X=5)	+0,081
p(X=6)	+0,001
p(X>0)	=82,998

My table isnt wrong, but your calculating seems to be, I get 39,669 for exactly 1.

308

Tutorials / Re: Draw Chance

« on: June 17, 2010, 11:44:38 pm »

I guess your equation is wrong, with c=1 the fraction is always reduced to "0", although it should be d/30 for d cards drawed.
I hope I am not wrong with this statement, maybe I have something on my eyes and its already late so be dont be angry with me if I am wrong.

My equation:
6 copies , 7 draws and 30 total to get AT LEAST 1:

p(X>0)=1-p(X=0)
=1 - 24/30 * 23/29* 22/28 * 21/27 * 20/26 * 19/25 * 18/24

the upper sequence: 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18 is done with: (t-c)! / (t-c-d)! --> (30-6)! / (30-6-7)! --> (24)! / (17)! --> 24*23*22*21*20*19*18
the lower sequence: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26 ,25, 24 is done with: (t)! / (t-d)! --> (30)! / (30-7)! --> (30)! / (23)! --> 30*29*28*27*26*25*24

Your lower sequence will be 29*28*27*26*25*24*23, because the "-1".
I cant imagine that the "-1" will realise "exactly 1", but I will think about that tomorrow or the day after. Maybe you find my or your fault.

309

General Discussion / Re: First or Second?

« on: June 17, 2010, 09:33:16 pm »

Sometimes if I get just 2 towers instead of 3 I would prefer to be the second... so I could use at least my Quicksand.
Too if you start with much creature control and without creatures it could be better to be the second.

310

General Discussion / Re: Immolation to strong?

« on: June 17, 2010, 09:28:15 pm »

I think the hardest thing for this kind of deck is rewind. He wont get further Immolations and Photons for at least 1 or 2 turns(depending on the number of golems he played and rewinds you have) and cant play his golem again.
A black hole will be nice too.

311

General Discussion / Re: Winning/Losing

« on: June 17, 2010, 09:17:06 pm »

I never got how people gain score by losing more than winning. I also never had a deck that could win against false gods with the rare loss, so I never played them. I speed/EM farm HBs mostly.

Score: 88234
Won: 2881 Loss: 1183 (i've tried PuppyChow's deck lately and I wasn't good at handling it)
I just try to keep my win/loss to about 2/1 or more.

Just win with EM and you will have 4 loses free without losing score.

312

Tutorials / Determine the right amount of copies; Draw Chance

« on: June 17, 2010, 08:55:00 pm »

Global Moderator Comment

These tables do not account for the automulligan, so don't use them for pillars, towers, novas and the like.

Its about the chance to draw X copies of a certain card depending on:

• turns or rather cards drawn "n"
• the number of copies "M"
• decksize "N"
• what exactly X is (X=1, means chance to draw exactly 1 card; X>0 means chance to draw at least 1 card and so on)

There is also a topic that explains hypergeometric probability or at least how to use an online calculator:
http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,7893.0.html for those who lack math skills.
Edit: Coinich added some nice 4D graphs there.

Or just look at the tables I already made.
I will regularly add new tables for different deck sizes and different probabilities.
If the table is slope just zoom out a bit

N = 30 X>0 n ---> M = 1 M = 2 M = 3 M = 4 M = 5 M = 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 turns: coin toss won 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 turns: coin toss lost 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 cards drawed 23,33 26,67 30,00 33,33 36,67 40,00 43,33 46,67 50,00 41,84 46,90 51,72 56,32 60,69 64,83 68,74 72,41 75,86 56,38 62,07 67,24 71,92 76,13 79,90 83,25 86,21 88,79 67,69 73,31 78,16 82,32 85,86 88,83 91,32 93,36 95,02 76,39 81,52 85,72 89,12 91,84 93,99 95,66 96,93 97,89 83,00 87,43 90,86 93,47 95,43 96,87 97,92 98,65 99,16

N = 32 X>0 n ---> M = 1 M = 2 M = 3 M = 4 M = 5 M = 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 turns: coin toss won 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 turns: coin toss lost 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 cards drawed 21,88 25,00 28,13 31,25 34,38 37,50 40,63 43,75 46,88 39,52 44,35 48,99 53,43 57,66 61,69 65,52 69,15 72,58 53,63 59,19 64,29 68,95 73,19 77,02 80,46 83,55 86,29 64,82 70,45 75,38 79,66 83,36 86,53 89,22 91,49 93,38 73,62 78,89 83,29 86,93 89,90 92,30 94,23 95,74 96,93 80,46 85,15 88,86 91,77 94,01 95,72 97,01 97,95 98,63

An own table for 32 cards just because I saw so much decks with exactly 32 cards.

N = 40 X>0 n ---> M = 1 M = 2 M = 3 M = 4 M = 5 M = 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 turns: coin toss won 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 turns: coin toss lost 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 cards drawed 17,50 20,00 22,50 25,00 27,50 30,00 32,50 35,00 37,50 32,30 36,41 40,38 44,23 47,95 51,54 55,00 58,33 61,54 44,78 49,80 54,50 58,91 63,02 66,84 70,39 73,68 76,72 55,22 60,65 65,57 70,01 74,01 77,60 80,80 83,64 86,16 63,93 69,40 74,18 78,34 81,95 85,06 87,73 90,00 91,93 71,14 76,39 80,82 84,53 87,62 90,18 92,29 94,00 95,39

N = 50 X>0 n ---> M = 1 M = 2 M = 3 M = 4 M = 5 M = 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 turns: coin toss won 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 turns: coin toss lost 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 cards drawed 14,00 16,00 18,00 20,00 22,00 24,00 26,00 28,00 30,00 26,29 29,71 33,06 36,33 39,51 42,61 45,63 48,57 51,43 37,04 41,43 45,61 49,59 53,37 56,96 60,36 63,57 66,61 46,41 51,40 56,03 60,32 64,29 67,95 71,32 74,42 77,26 54,57 59,85 64,63 68,94 72,83 76,31 79,43 82,21 84,68 61,64 66,99 71,70 75,85 79,47 82,63 85,37 87,74 89,79

N = 60 X>0 n ---> M = 1 M = 2 M = 3 M = 4 M = 5 M = 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 turns: coin toss won 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 turns: coin toss lost 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 cards drawed 11,67 13,33 15,00 16,67 18,33 20,00 21,67 23,33 25,00 22,15 25,08 27,97 30,79 33,56 36,27 38,93 41,53 44,07 31,54 35,42 39,14 42,72 46,16 49,46 52,62 55,64 58,53 39,95 44,48 48,75 52,77 56,55 60,10 63,42 66,54 69,45 47,46 52,41 56,99 61,21 65,09 68,65 71,91 74,90 77,63 54,14 59,33 64,03 68,26 72,07 75,49 78,55 81,29 83,73

I think thess tables could be used to find the right amount of copies you need depending on how necessary you need a card. Especially for cards you actually only need once. For this cards you have to decide between readiness of the card and getting this card more then once(=dead card).
For example(first table) with 3 Hopes you will have a chance of 67,24% to get at least 1 hope with your 9th card (or 2/3 turn). With 4 Hopes you would have a chance of 78,16%.
If you think you had a bad draw you can also use them to see whether you were really unlucky or not. 

I hope the table is clearly arranged and useful. You can also tell me which table you need and I will edit them.