Guest posts by Rainmaker

1

Cygnia / Re: Quantum Pendulum | Quantum Pendulum

« on: November 18, 2011, 04:27:58 pm »

OldTrees is right.
The solution to the crippled  would be to add some supernovas.
But this is good, because it will make more Rainbows mark-oriented.
Its impossible to run a regular Rainbows with anubis. (8  ).
You ve got to feed the Hourglass (4+1 skill  ) an eternity (5+3 skill )
Same if you wanted to do mass fate egg or Pharaoh.

3|1 seems balanced imho.
I wouldn't replace all my quantum pillars for quantum pends if was fiven the choice. You need a good steady flow of  in rainbows decks.

2

False Gods / Re: Drop rates and deck selection

« on: September 27, 2011, 01:07:51 am »

To interpret the number, you can say that winning a game always give 3 spins, so in 3×n spins you expect to win 3×n×y% cards, which is equivalent to say : in n winning game you expect to win n×(3×y%) ; and with n=1, you have the meaning of the number, 3×y% is the number of cards you expect to win in 1 game (which obviously has nothing to do with a probability).
Suppose a FG has a 60% probability to drop a card in 1 spin :
you win on average 0.6 cards per spin
you win on average 1.8 cards per game
In the first case the probability is equivalent to the number of cards wins because 0.6 = 0×0.4 + 1×0.6 , for the second case 1.8 = 0×(0.4)³ + 1×(0.4)²(0.6)×3 + 2×(0.4)(0.6)²×3 + 3×(0.6)³
And putting 1.8 in % (180%) has no sense, you can just put 180 for the average in 100 games.

This is wrong.
This probability distribution is called Binomial:

If your probability of success is p=0,6; and you have 3 oportunities then:

B(p=0,6/n=3/r=?) = (r/n) * p^r * (1-p)^(n-r)

r=1 means the chances of winning only 1 card in 3 spins; the r/n = r!/(n-r)!
Which explains the different sorting: (w=win, f=failure)
w.f.f - f.w.f - f.f.w

r=2 means the chances of winning 2 cards in 3 spins:
w.w.f - w.f.w - f.w.w

r=3 means the chances of winning 3 cards in 3 spins:
w.w.w

r= means the chances of winning 0 cards in 3 spins:
f.f.f

B(r=0) + B(r=1) + B(r=2) + B(r=n=3) = 1 (sum of all probabilities).

The chances of winning AT LEAST 1 card would be:
 B(r=1) + B(r=2) + B(r=3)
Which is the same as:
 B(r=1) + B(r=2) + B(r=3) =1-B(r=0) =

3

Game Suggestions and Feedback / Re: Game rules change: spinning cards

« on: January 18, 2011, 10:32:44 pm »

I won an upgraded light pilar from Miracle... what are the odds?

4

Game Suggestions and Feedback / Re: Suggestions about new cards!

« on: December 23, 2010, 06:48:04 pm »

Yet, those cards are useful only when you 've got more than 2.
That is for example, if you lack of a Protect/Enchant Artifact and you are playing your pulveryzer, your bonewall, permafrost or Phase/Dim shield.

5

Rainbow Decks / Re: BlackRainbow 1.25 (Stats added)

« on: December 23, 2010, 04:37:35 pm »

Oughty-> Fallen Druid->Hourglass-> Towers. Would be a must.
After that you can upgrade as you win
Maybe now, it could be good to hunt for HB first, until you can upgrade all those cards. (i guess that with half of the towers upped could work).

6

Game Suggestions and Feedback / Re: Suggestions about new cards!

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:55:22 pm »

So you think that rush deck are the only viable archtype?
Have you though of, dunno, stall, poison, shutdown, etc, etc, etc?
Seriously, if you are not willing to see the available options don't even bother to write a nonsense complaint.

Sundial just go cheaper to play
+
Solar Shield generates 1 per dmg taken
+
Steam machine got "charge" increaeed from 4 to 5 dmg
---------------------------------------------------------------------
How does THAT doesn't boost a deck?!?!?

7

Time / Re: Sundial | Sundial

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:52:22 pm »

I wish you could all act like 0 cost is a bad thing. Before, people lived without mulligan perfectly. They, you know, added Towers to their decks. You should try the same before complaining that a certain 0-cost card screwed your draws 5 times in a row.

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,17747.msg241474#msg241474

Thats my rainbow FG farmer, I bought and upped 2 more sundials. After some preliminar tests (10 games), i drawed sundials in 2 of those 10 games.
I know sample should be bigger, but it just messes up. Though it is only 2 cards in a 38 cards deck; i run with 12 upped pillars + 1 upped pendulum. Being a rainbow means i 've got to get the quanta needed FAST (because with 3 pillars only, its hard to reach 1 of the quantas to 4~5). So yes, pendulum real affects me.
I 'll have to go back to unupped sundial, though they cost 1 (which i need for Hourglass and Eternity).
I can't have "dead cards" on my hand. As most cards are needed in the rainbow deck, and it ain't nice to have to discard some in the first 2 turns.

I know, you will say "well, thats just 1 situational example, if you are always on shortage of quanta, you will be even more with upped sundials due to mulligan". But thats not the point; Increasing it to 1 doesn't affect by no means the buff it got (which is hasten from 2x to 1 ); which was a big buff for the card.

8

Trio & Quartet / DON'T PANIC (Life/Light duet)

« on: December 21, 2010, 08:09:06 pm »

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

5bt 5bt 5bt 5bv 5bv 5bv 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c0 5c5 5c5 5c5 5c5 5c7 5c7 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5de 5ld 5lf 5lf 5lf 5ll 5ll 5ll 5ll 7ak 7n2 7n2 7q9 7q9 8pq

Just tested it 10 times, too bad it doesn't have perma control.
Though it has some Upped cards that i had from before.
It has a good EM rate for wins

9

Time / Re: Sundial | Sundial

« on: December 21, 2010, 07:38:39 pm »

Thats my point, unupped is better, as you don't get to draw a sundial on your first 7 card hand.
The only benefit now is that MOST decks that have quanta generating can play it to search for their decks for specifics.
MAYBE, they should make it cost 1 to play. That would prevent it from appearing into the 1st hand.

10

Nerf This Card! / Re: Procrastination | Turtle Shield

« on: December 21, 2010, 07:37:01 pm »

Blocking damage now is always better than blocking damage later, which is why Dusk/Fog are of greater value than Turtle. If you have Turtle, you'll mostly lose fights on the turn creatures are free to attack, meaning you'll never get to play turn after when they will be delayed - which is why Turtle doesnt actually stop 50%.
Fog/Dusk will give you a chance to react to sudden creature spam / one turn kill attempts; Turtle will do nothing. No one cares what happens after 100 turns in play, when you're dead by turn 7-8.

Finally, I really REALLY rarely actually see Turtle shield in play. I have no idea why would someone want to nerf it.

The difference is in the effect.
Turtle will "freeze" the creature for 1 turn, making impossible to use any skills. (devour, mutation, paradox, etc); while Fog/Dusk only prevent the dmg.
They have different orientation.
For example; if you have 4 SoG in play and a Turtle Shield; then you heal for 40 net HP after 2 turns.

overall, I still think that Dusk and Fog are better ( would have to run the odds of Fog still), because, although you are playing against probabilities, the final overcome is much better from Dusk/Fog.

Anyways i think that maybe a buff to turtle like block 1 dmg, would make it more useful.

Same thing goes for Fire buckler, it takes 1 HP from every attacking creature, while still doesn't stop the dmg done.
¿Why would you do that?
I can only imagine 2 scenarios:
1. Low HP enemy creatures
2. You have any type of Creature control. Like Oughty, Owls/Eagle Eye, Fire storm, Thunderbolt, etc

11

Time / Re: Sundial | Sundial

« on: December 21, 2010, 05:36:52 pm »

auto mulligan REALLY screws this.

12

Nerf This Card! / Re: Procrastination | Turtle Shield

« on: December 21, 2010, 03:41:20 pm »

You are doing it wrong:

Dusk Mantle: 50% of blocking the incoming attack.

Turtle Shield: Set the creature in a time bubble for 1 turn if they attack.


The 2nd shield will "freeze" the creature every other turn. So if he has 10 turns, he will only attack during 5. The other 5 the creature is "Frozen". It doesn't attack and it can't use its ability

The 1st shield says that it has a probability of 50% of blocking the incoming attack.
That being said, it means that it MAY or MAY NOT block it.
If a creature attack for 10 turns:

The probability of blocking r attacks is:

B(r/n=10, p=0,5) = (n/r)*[(p)^r]*[(1-p)^n-r]

As p = 1-p; for p being 0,5 then:

B(r/ n=10, p=0,5 = (10/r)* 0,5^10 = (10/r)* 0.0009765625

r= 0 ; P= 0.001
r= 1 ; P= 0.010
r= 2 ; P= 0.044
r= 3 ; P= 0.117
r= 4 ; P= 0.205
r= 5 ; P= 0.246
r= 6 ; P= 0.205
r= 7 ; P= 0.117
r= 8 ; P= 0.044
r= 9 ; P= 0.010
r=10; P= 0.001

This means that chances of blocking EXACTLY 5 attacks from 1 creature is = 24,6%
Chances of blocking AT LEAST 4 attacks from 1 creature (sum from r=4 to r=10) = 82.8%
Chances of blocking AT LEAST 5 attacks from 1 creature (sum from r=5 to r=10) = 62.3%
Chances of blocking AT LEAST 6 attacks from 1 creature (sum from r=6 to r=10) = 37.7%

( 'at least 4' stands for "blocking either 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 attacks", ergo, blocking by minimun 4 of the attacks)



B(r/n,p)

B=Bernoulli distribution
r= succesful event
n= total events
p= probability of succesful event

(n/r) = combinatory N , R = (n!) / [(n-r)! * r!]
This number calculates the different arrangements of having r in n events for example if n=10 and r=4:
T=true =r
F=false= ~r (not r)

T T T T F F F F F F
T T T F T F F F F F
T T T F F T F F F F

etc, for this there are 210 possible combinations or arrangements.


Now you may understand how Fog shields, Dask Mantle and Thorn Capparace, Permafrost are WAY different from Turtle Shield.

(By the way, your reasoning isnt entirely false, the thing is that during long time probability was conceived as "if i repeat this experiment n times for n a great number, then the probability = p". But this is a misconception)

[edit: faulty math and minor spelling ]