What's with all the thinking? Mono aether unupgraded has always beaten Incarnate. You don't even need lobo. It's probably not 100% win because you could have bad draws but it's close enough.
You don't want to kill Incarnate's creatures because it could mean feeding Bone Wall and, while you could play a Bone Wall yourself, Incarnate's Graveyards would mean your Bone Wall will fall down faster than its.
Anyways Aether wins hands down because:
Immortal creatures means Retrovirus and Bloodsucker are relatively harmlessDimensional Shield means no more damage from its creatures and no more healing for Incarnate from its VampiresImmortal creatures not dying means constant pressure on its Bone Walls which it cannot keep up sustainablyIf you have Lobotomizer, you can use its ability to stop Retrovirus from dying and feeding Bone Wall. It also takes away the Vampire ability but you really shouldn't be getting hit towards the end anyway so that doesn't matter.